Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Negative. I know where I stand with this. Might be low end of my 4-8” range. But I haven’t been poo pooing the likely first legit snowfall in 2 years 

You just said BOX 4-6 was a non event yesterday.  
 

Anyways Scooter knows. We watch 12z today. 

[dendrite]

44 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congratulations Dendrite.

Hopefully that messenger shuffles all the way to an ACK jack. I’m going to have major flooding concerns here with 6”+ followed by 2” of rain with frozen ground and I won’t be home to reroute water around my chicken run. 

Losing the CAD early week sucks. I did want some pack for insulating the plant roots. 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This was becoming clear at 0z and it was well received as you can imagine  as I posted about it 

I wanted more discussion around it and if I have your ear Will, I realize and most should it was a very delicate interaction with subtle upstream changes in second SW strength and speed having large changes in Sunday days snow duration and intensity.
 

Do you think that interaction(between short waves  can come back ) and if so when would we need to see this by . I think the goal posts are a bit wider then many think , if we are not depending on the first weakening short wave for majority of accumulation , for the period when ratio’s we’re lower 

Yea it could come back. I wouldn’t favor it but it’s a plausible scenario. 

[NorEastermass128]

Lots of weenie-ing in here today. Still looks good for 6+ for a lot of the forum. Just last week, I said I wanted just a simple 2-4, so I can’t complain. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Lots of weenie-ing in here today. Still looks good for 6+ for a lot of the forum. Just last week, I said I wanted just a simple 2-4, so I can’t complain. 

You’re actually in a decent spot to catch any last second CCB stuff Sunday PM. 

[mreaves]

Here is what BTV is showing.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully that messenger shuffles all the way to an ACK jack. I’m going to have major flooding concerns here with 6”+ followed by 2” of rain with frozen ground and I won’t be home to reroute water around my chicken run. 

Losing the CAD early week sucks. I did want some pack for insulating the plant roots. 

Amazing how that’s been modeled for almost 2 weeks.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Amazing how that’s been modeled for almost 2 weeks.

965 mb Just north of Buffalo 

doesn’t have the bitter cold high on backside like last Xmas storm or I’d consider doing something , winds should still roar but not sustained at 70

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, 512high said:

Don't alter your final call, too much.....

I don't anticipate large scale changes from the Wednesday AM map.

[Snowcrazed71]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why NWS remains conservative until the last possible moment....there are subtle ebbs and flows in guidance that have relatively large impacts on sensible results and are not worth compromising consistency until very late in the game.

I agree, and I have a sneaky suspicion that the 12Z runs will bump it back down again. I truly don't think that late last night and this mornings runs are the final outcome. They have been fluctuating back and forth like this for the last few days. Now. I'm pretty confident that most of Connecticut is in the four to eight range, but I do feel there's a possibility can bump back up to 6 to 12. The models are still trying to figure out exactly where the second piece of energy catches up to the first. I'm pretty happy even with 4" to 8" as we've haven't seen this in quite some time.

I know most of it's going to wash away from Tuesday to Wednesday storm. But I do think we have some good stuff coming up later in the month. And who knows what February will bring at this point. 

[CoastalWx]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to that...hopefully at least one of them takes a vested interest instead of looking at me cross-eyed like the general populous  God, just give one "the sickness" to take over the blog once I start drooling on myself lol

Happy to hear Ray. My son gets mad when I’m negative now lol. He’s mad at me currently.

[CoastalWx]

I told him it’s good to be realistic otherwise you end up getting cranky like Tblizz.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sunday PM has def trended east with CCB. Looks like the main show is the stuff before that. It still clips eastern areas Sunday afternoon with CCB but it’s not as crazy as yesterdays runs. 

I really suspect the 2nd S/W in contention has been temporarily lost while relaying from the GOA source as it nears the WC (as we are typing .../overnight) and is trying to pass through the NVA physics of the ridge axis along the immediate WC.  I notice the runs began to de-emphasize the 2nd wave overtaking/controlling when that relay began yesterday -

It may come back/re-emerge more coherently again during the runs today.  That CCB-ing aspect is/was really an acceleration caused by a phasing - with less thereof,  that is [perhaps] why temporarily less proficient -

[CoastalWx]

I’m thinking 2-4 here right now unless 12z changes that. 

[Layman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I really suspect the 2nd S/W in contention has been temporarily lost while relaying from the GOA source as it nears the WC (as we are typing .../overnight) and is trying to pass through the NVA physics of the ridge axis along the immediate WC.  I notice the runs began to de-emphasize the 2nd wave overtaking/controlling when that relay began yesterday -

It may come back/re-emerge more coherently again during the runs today.  That CCB-ing aspect is/was really an acceleration caused by a phasing - with less thereof,  that is [perhaps] why temporarily less proficient -

If this influence does come back into play today, is there an estimate as to what kind of enhancement it could have?  10%?  Or is it far more complicated and it will simply be apparent on the modeling that something is changing?  Curious if there's a known or estimated impact of this happening in these kind of situations.  

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Happy to hear Ray. My son gets mad when I’m negative now lol. He’s mad at me currently.

I think you are not eating and suggest you eat 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think you are not eating and suggest you eat 

Beer?

[CoastalWx]

Dave will get a foot and say how he’s surprised. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

FWIW 12z HRRR coming in hot, just sharing some new guidance, been trending amped along with other HI-RES , CNE crew will like the final outcome I bet. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dave will get a foot and say how he’s surprised. 

“Didn’t expect that” 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

FWIW HRRR came in hot, just sharing some new guidance, been trending amped along with other HI-RES , CNE crew will like the final outcome I bet. 

How is it for SNE…

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m thinking 2-4 here right now unless 12z changes that. 

That second piece of energy isn’t even onshore yet. All kidding aside, I’ll probably reserve final judgement until tonight 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That second piece of energy isn’t even onshore yet. All kidding aside, I’ll probably reserve final judgement until tonight 

I think you’ll do fine there..you always manage to more often than not. As Tip alluded to..let’s see what 12z does later? 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

FWIW 12z HRRR coming in hot, just sharing some new guidance, been trending amped along with other HI-RES , CNE crew will like the final outcome I bet. 

SREFs are going to nail this

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How is it for SNE…

Still loading its an outlier now, its over Philly so take it for what it is, its way amped, earlier NW and warm.. LOL 850s are torched from onset in south ct  

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Congratulations Dendrite.

“Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. Congrats Dendrite!” -Thanos

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That second piece of energy isn’t even onshore yet. All kidding aside, I’ll probably reserve final judgement until tonight 

I feel pretty good about that. Can always update. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still loading its an outlier now, its over Philly so take it for what it is, its way amped, earlier NW and warm.. 

That is a very funky HRRR run. Quite a bit going on with some funky warm layers and looks like some dry or drier pockets mixed in. Luckily its the HRRR in the extended range  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That is a very funky HRRR run. Quite a bit going on with some funky warm layers and looks like some dry or drier pockets mixed in. Luckily its the HRRR in the extended range  

lol ya exactly extremely funky convective look over CT

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

“Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. Congrats Dendrite!” -Thanos

Climate change is turning me into Tolland now though. I get a little snow and then the cutters just rip through here unabated and wipe me back to bare ground. He’s turning into Mount Waialeale now.