Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Stunning that hopes for a foot+ event hinging on a last second hail mary of a SW capture didn't pan out...I am just floored.

This has always looked like a nice, moderate snow....random higher end suites not withstanding.

Yeah, the ceiling on this was pretty obvious since early this week.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Morhping  into Coming to grips with a 4-6 hour thump Saturday night 8-10pm start 3-5am finish with mood snow Sunday AM for Connecticut, can still do quite well in those 4-6 hours with 1-2" rates just away from the shoreline.. 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sunday PM has def trended east with CCB. Looks like the main show is the stuff before that. It still clips eastern areas Sunday afternoon with CCB but it’s not as crazy as yesterdays runs. 

This was becoming clear at 0z and it was well received as you can imagine  as I posted about it 

I wanted more discussion around it and if I have your ear Will, I realize and most should it was a very delicate interaction with subtle upstream changes in second SW strength and speed having large changes in Sunday days snow duration and intensity.
 

Do you think that interaction(between short waves  can come back ) and if so when would we need to see this by . I think the goal posts are a bit wider then many think , if we are not depending on the first weakening short wave for majority of accumulation , for the period when ratio’s we’re lower 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

10:1 is not happening for some with surface temps in the 30's and falling during daylight hours.

There is flash freeze potential Sun afternoon when the wind flips.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sey-Less Snow

[STILL N OF PIKE]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You are getting close to an epic melt.

If anything as usual it’s the opposite 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This was becoming clear at 0z and it was well received as you can imagine  as I posted about it 

I wanted more discussion around it and if I have your ear Will, I realize and most should it was a very delicate interaction with subtle upstream changes in second SW strength and speed having large changes in Sunday days snow duration and intensity.
 

Do you think that interaction(between short waves  can come back ) and if so when would we need to see this by . I think the goal posts are a bit wider then many think

Since it is apparent to you. How much qpf changes with the CCB offshore? Are we talking .5 plus?

[weatherwiz]

Thinking a good 5-8'' of snow across Connecticut with about 3-5'' along the immediate shoreline. Going to put together a map later this afternoon after work stuff all done. The 5'' side though along the immediate shoreline may be too high though but we'll see after assessing everything in full after Euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is why NWS remains conservative until the last possible moment....there are subtle ebbs and flows in guidance that have relatively large impacts on sensible results and are not worth compromising consistency until very late in the game.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1743209506765738070?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is flash freeze potential Sun afternoon when the wind flips.

Towards the end it will.

[Bryan63]

I am going to choose to ignore the models and believe that some decent snow is coming based solely on how active the squirrels seem to be this morning.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congratulations Dendrite.

Looks a little beefed up

was this stronger initial SW or more interaction returning from second and first during Sunday

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love that this will be a wet snow...my favorite type. Thankfully my 2 year old is recovering after a recent health scare and will be able to have him out with me while shoveling...sick children really put this shit into perspective.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks a little beefed up

was this stronger initial SW or more interaction returning from second and first during Sunday

Euro increased QPF by .3 in CCB

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks a little beefed up

was this stronger initial SW or more interaction returning from second and first during Sunday

Initial wave tracked further north, Still was caught late by the trailer.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sey-Less Snow

Awful job by the models this week.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love that this will be a wet snow...my favorite type. Thankfully my 2 year old is recovering after a recent health scare and will be able to have him out with my while shoveling...sick children really put this shit into perspective.

Great to hear all is well. Perspective is a blessing. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sey-Less Snow

Hindsight is 20/20 lmao, you know you were excited about the potential for more in your location, knew it was a longshot here so we kept our 5-10" call .. We all discussed the potential of what we saw yesterday and that was to continue snow yesterday with a heavier band on the northern side where a ccb would prolong heavier snow.. As this storm trended north overnight the dry-slot cuts down on time of snow especially further south as well as the trailing wave not catching up now which takes off a few hours on the backend.. Several prominent meteorologists in here were entertaining the idea of higher totals as well as every CT outlet.. I'm glad we kept our map capped at 5-10" will just have to adjust the 2-5" north and west 10 miles.. We learn and we enjoy our first snowfall still. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love that this will be a wet snow...my favorite type. Thankfully my 2 year old is recovering after a recent health scare and will be able to have him out with my while shoveling...sick children really put this shit into perspective.

God bless him Ray so happy he pulled thru. Good lord nothing scarier. Nothing better than teaching a new weenie all about snow either. My in box is flooded with my kids talking and asking about Sunday. So proud lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Awful job by the models this week.

Not really when you consider this wasn't a large scale event deeply rooted in a long wave signal...this is the type of system where little idiosyncrasies with respect to SW interactions have disproportionately large results on sensible appeal for many areas. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hindsight is 20/20 lmao, you know you were excited about the potential for more in your location, knew it was a longshot here so we kept our 5-10" call .. We all discussed the potential of what we saw yesterday and that was to continue snow yesterday with a heavier band on the northern side where a ccb would prolong heavier snow.. As this storm trended north overnight the dry-slot cuts down on time of snow especially further south as well as the trailing wave not catching up now which takes off a few hours on the backend.. Several prominent meteorologists in here were entertaining the idea of higher totals as well as every CT outlet.. I'm glad we kept our map capped at 5-10" will just have to adjust the 2-5" north and west 10 miles.. We learn and we enjoy our first snowfall still. 

Great Job bro.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If anything as usual it’s the opposite 

He’ll be melting.

[dryslot]

I'll take a Miller B any day over this

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

God bless him Ray so happy he pulled thru. Good lord nothing scarier. Nothing better than teaching a new weenie all about snow either. My in box is flooded with my kids talking and asking about Sunday. So proud lol

I look forward to that...hopefully at least one of them takes a vested interest instead of looking at me cross-eyed like the general populous  God, just give one "the sickness" to take over the blog once I start drooling on myself lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If anything as usual it’s the opposite 

Negative. I know where I stand with this. Might be low end of my 4-8” range. But I haven’t been poo pooing the likely first legit snowfall in 2 years 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love that this will be a wet snow...my favorite type. Thankfully my 2 year old is recovering after a recent health scare and will be able to have him out with me while shoveling...sick children really put this shit into perspective.

Happy to hear all is well

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hindsight is 20/20 lmao, you know you were excited about the potential for more in your location, knew it was a longshot here so we kept our 5-10" call .. We all discussed the potential of what we saw yesterday and that was to continue snow yesterday with a heavier band on the northern side where a ccb would prolong heavier snow.. As this storm trended north overnight the dry-slot cuts down on time of snow especially further south as well as the trailing wave not catching up now which takes off a few hours on the backend.. Several prominent meteorologists in here were entertaining the idea of higher totals as well as every CT outlet.. I'm glad we kept our map capped at 5-10" will just have to adjust the 2-5" north and west 10 miles.. We learn and we enjoy our first snowfall still. 

I'm just breaking your balls lol Nothing unreasonable about that.

[512high]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just breaking your balls lol Nothing unreasonable about that.

Don't alter your final call, too much.....

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to that...hopefully at least one of them takes a vested interest instead of looking at me cross-eyed like the general populous  God, just give one "the sickness" to take over the blog once I start drooling on myself lol

I get reports from my kid in Germany still.  Lol.  Now it's the grandkids. Granddaughter is driving back to Penn State and texted me at 6 am. I told her to leave tonight. Think pretty much a weenified family. As much as some profess hating snow they are the first to ask if there will be enough to take the kids sledding Sunday afternoon