Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

Frost Lush, they call everything a variation of Lush.  I love them all.  Im an alcoholic who loves the weather, and gets especially drunk when a storm comes.  Im old and dont care.  I have lurked for years and sort of know you all.  But I am NNE so mainly lurk there, but I lived in Mass and Philly so I visit places.   

I salute you 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So I feel like we’re getting some data shadowing on that second S/W as it approaches the West Coast where there is a ridge axis. Models may have trouble resolving that feature until it passes through the NVA,  until tomorrow afternoon or night.

Interesting. As we drip over each model run, we tend to forget how a nuance here or there can make a difference downstream. Snow is fickle.’

[Henry's Weather]

Ooooh GFS is better. I’m forsaking my 6 am wakeup for this, better be good. Gotta get that eight hours

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

Ray, NWS is offering more?    How do you feel about that?  3-5 and then 5-9.  

I don't see 14"...too high.

[DavisStraight]

If we end up with this I'll be happy, not as good as before but this isn't over yet.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting. As we drip over each model run, we tend to forget how a nuance here or there can make a difference downstream. Snow is fickle.’

It seems like for the last couple years , most systems have been very complex with moving parts , phasing and or BL issues 

less 3-6/ 4-8 inch storms that sort of traverse a larger area in a steady form and can be more or less extrapolated E or NE to our area where temps are sitting in the 20’s

[Henry's Weather]

About the same, solid warning event. Nice

[weathafella]

GFS is pretty nice.  Good night kiss and all....

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm happy with anything over 6".....so long as scooter and/or Kev or anyone within 20mi doesn't pull a 1'

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Solid 8-12” pike south with some late ccb enhancement lolis for semaatt.

[weathafella]

CMC is a crushing!  12Z had it going into SE MA-now the low stays offshore and goes just east of ACK.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Solid 8-12” pike south with some late ccb enhancement lolis for semaatt.

That’s a great storm right there…I’m very happy with 8-12”.  

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Solid 8-12” pike south with some late ccb enhancement lolis for semaatt.

 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

That’s a great storm right there…I’m very happy with 8-12”.  

We like tonight’s action 

[TalcottWx]

18 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

Frost Lush, they call everything a variation of Lush.  I love them all.  Im an alcoholic who loves the weather, and gets especially drunk when a storm comes.  Im old and dont care.  I have lurked for years and sort of know you all.  But I am NNE so mainly lurk there, but I lived in Mass and Philly so I visit places.   

I 100% recognize your sn. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs and cmc are great here, no complaints 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CMC is a crushing!  12Z had it going into SE MA-now the low stays offshore and goes just east of ACK.

Is it better than the GFS? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is violence here Sunday afternoon. Wow 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is it better than the GFS? 

Similar but cmc goes hog wild over eastern sne.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Is it better than the GFS? 

About the same for us but better for interior EMA and pike north.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is it better than the GFS? 

I’m thrilled with GFS…I was just questioning Jerry’s adjective of “it’s a crushing” is all..no need for weenies lol. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Good news for S of pike crew with 0z runs so far . Gfs was a little better version of nam as it got CCB back into about Pike 

I honestly just wanna see this thing develop decent mid levels and crank somewhere Sunday afternoon and not just slip out Sunday brunch after part 1 does who knows what 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

About the same for us but better for interior EMA and pike north.

Figured that.  The AEMATT is rampant lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m thrilled with GFS…I was just questioning Jerry’s adjective of “it’s a crushing” is all..no need for weenies lol. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Heres the gfs wolfie:

[TalcottWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see 14"...too high.

It pretty damn cold; some might stack up fast under banding. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

That’s a crushing everywhere imo…thanks for posting. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a crushing everywhere imo…thanks for posting. 

I think 10:1 should be ok overall too. Probably below that in the beginning and maybe some 12:1 in good banding during the meat of the storm. 

[weathafella]

I’m going with 6-10 for mby.  Upped from 4-10.

[78Blizzard]

I just hate to be in or near the bullseye in many of these models with 2.5 days to go.  It usually doesn't work out.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think 10:1 should be ok overall too. Probably below that in the beginning and maybe some 12:1 in good banding during the meat of the storm. 

Completely Agreed.