Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

One aspect that we less often cover as a group in this engagement are the mid and upper air jet mechanics.  But the overlay of the 500 mb and 300mb do indicate a favorable synoptic divergence potential in that layer.  There is a fairly strong wind max/arc entrance region exiting Maine as the more mid level exit jet region is approaching L.I.-ish.   That gap is a teeny bit larger than ideal... still, it may be close enough to enhance lift over the top of where the 700 mb is forced over the cold conveyor belt. 

I could see light snow farther N-W due to that "mid and upper air magic" .  

We're still 5 days away that and that's probably more appropriate once we get closer.

Good point. That will certainly be tied into the overall track of the system, but if we get something more north this could end up being an underrated aspect to the forecast...one that could yield some busting (on the higher side) in spots. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much preferred. Days and days instead of hours 

For this one, I prefer it as well. It’s been so bad that the amount doesn’t matter as much as the festive nature so lets keep that going for as long as possible. 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When do you think models may show which is more likely , stronger SW or grinded

Don't really have the players on the field for another 36-48 hours. But I would start to feel more confident around that time.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For this one, I prefer it as well. It’s been so bad that the amount doesn’t matter as much as the festive nature so lets keep that going for as long as possible. 

I wouldn’t wish for a meat grinder 

that’s like waiting to get your chance to play on the pga tour and teeing off with a 5 iron 

[Torch Tiger]

yeah what's up with these days and days folks this AM?  Untapped already? wow

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lighter but longer duration is the short term trend. 

I did notice that and I wouldn’t mind that . 

[weathafella]

The big takeaway trend overnight is to moderate this event.  A plowable snow is better than most of last season’s snows.   We’re heading to much better days.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snows Sat PM and all of Sunday into Sunday night … lots of hang back 

[Sn0waddict]

If only:

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

If only:

Perfect for SW CT. I do not like the guidance trend north though, has to stop NOW.

[Chrisrotary12]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wouldn’t wish for a meat grinder 

that’s like waiting to get your chance to play on the pga tour and teeing off with a 5 iron 

3-iron Tin Cup style....

Assuming the system progresses generally as modeled, since it is running into a brick wall... wondering if the northern fringe can squeeze out a decent deform band.

[NorEastermass128]

CF has me a little worried for those on the coast. Just inland should be okay. 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Good point. That will certainly be tied into the overall track of the system, but if we get something more north this could end up being an underrated aspect to the forecast...one that could yield some busting (on the higher side) in spots. 

Well ... I'm not speaking to where the storm actually tracks.  That disco above is really just regarding the expansion of the lift (synoptically) .. where those jet fields align implies the area. 

snowing vs dry air battle notwithstanding

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Perfect for SW CT. I do not like the guidance trend north though, has to stop NOW.

Not overly concerned about that yet. Models still seem all over the place ha.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

CF has me a little worried for those on the coast. Just inland should be okay. 

I'd rather get this a little closer like the ICON because either way the CF will be west of you and I for awhile. So I'd rather get some heavy paste vs 1SM -SN that barely sticks.

 

Euro was cold, but I might bump those temps a tad for you and I.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Don't really have the players on the field for another 36-48 hours. But I would start to feel more confident around that time.

thank you very much!

[Typhoon Tip]

George!  George! George!

[Typhoon Tip]

ICON is basically the perfect way to maximize snow proficiency out of an attenuating ( weakening...) total wave space.   That's a weak but still anomalously juiced Miller A response ( initially) that gets captured by a NJ model rapid deepener.  

I mean if you look at 500 mb, it has a flat wave geometry ... however perfectly aligned in torpedoing along the quintessentially ideal latitude of 1.5 deg S of L.I. for climo frontogenic forcing along the Pike. 

The end result of all that is that the ICON's 6z solution is attempting to actually forecast synergistic over-achievement.  That's probably snowing 3.5"/hr rates for 4 hours between HFD and BED Mass out of a mere neutral standard deviation 500 mb synoptic look, by colliding these metrics. 

That's impressive for going shopping in a German candy store  LOL

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much preferred. Days and days instead of hours 

A week of flurries would be great. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

A week of flurries would be great. 

I'd rather have 3 hrs of violence instead of 3 days of flurries.

[White Gorilla]

Tracking a storm, model wrangling, snow maps - now THIS is what I expect to see here in winter!  Let it snow now dammit! 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd rather have 3 hrs of violence instead of 3 days of flurries.

People are finding creative ways and scenarios to prepare themselves in case of a let down 

“I’d much rather go home with the lady with 3 teeth and overalls ..instead of the banging blonde w the body ..I’m not shallow anymore and uh she prob won’t laugh at me “

[MaineJayhawk]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

People are finding creative ways and scenarios to prepare themselves in case of a let down 

“I’d much rather go home with the lady with 3 teeth and overalls ..instead of the banging blonde w the body ..she prob won’t laugh at me “

Why the overall hate?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Why the overall hate?

I should have said moo-moo

 

[iceman1]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Perfect for SW CT. I do not like the guidance trend north though, has to stop NOW.

lots of time to fine tune this event 

 

[NorEastermass128]

Good chance for a snow bowl at Gillette Sunday. Out with a bang. 

[iceman1]

i need a new snow blower the old one is dead but not going to get one because if i do it will just rain 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

i need a new snow blower the old one is dead but not going to get one because if i do it will just rain 

Don’t you dare.  Lol.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t you dare.  Lol.

I actually took the snowblower out of my shed yesterday because I needed to make sure it was working after leaving it in there all of last winter. There was a chipmunk nest in it but thankfully they didn’t chew any wires off so everything seemed to work. Gonna have to rodent-proof it before storing it again. 
 

If the storm and subsequent pattern afterward shit the bed, you can all blame it on me. 

[WxWatcher007]

Lol I don’t think it’s a defense mechanism to say we’ll take more hours of snow even if it’s lighter after literally two of the worst winters in recorded history.