Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[CoastalWx]

Nam looks good

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is the second short wave late , seems so on this run

[dmcginvt]

Staying the course it seems

[78Blizzard]

Much colder at the surface.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1002 mb at 12z Sunday 

[CoastalWx]

NAM has no idea what to do 

[CCHurricane]

Pretty decent shift on the lower level temp profile for SE MA, particularly down near the cape.

About a 5° difference at the surface.

[dryslot]

Shocker

[dmcginvt]

some serious fgen there on the coast, curious what gfs will show done with the nam 

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM has no idea what to do 

I will say...I'm just glad it was nothing like 18z. I still don't think the NAM is worth a crap with this system until its mesoscale time but if it stayed coarse it would have to be a bit of a caution flag.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam looks good

Nice run for the coastal folks worried about p-type.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Nice run for the coastal folks worried about p-type.

Yup, I’d take that

[dmcginvt]

Fantasy right now

[powderfreak]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, I’d take that

It’s a pretty uniform SFC temp display across the south/east half of SNE… from CT to the South Shore.

That steady moderate to heavy precipitation wet-bulbs everyone to 32-33F.  Theres some paste in there.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

There was no part 2 except for SE mass , toss lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There was no part 2 lol 

On the south coast there was 

[TalcottWx]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

Props to Kevin for naming rgem “reggie”

I'll never forget what Reggie did in 15'.

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

looks like it may be better up my way.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

On the south coast there was 

I don’t count them lol and I edited it right after I posted it 

[dryslot]

There was a part 2 out past Georges bank

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Seems like the second short wave interacted late / minimally otherwise I think it would have been like the 12z Reggie . That is really key for anyone getting double digits 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Cool. Next model now. 

[tavwtby]

nice H7 fronto through CT on this run, looks a little more amped to me too

[JKEisMan]

Improved for CT over 18z but no love up north like 12z 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cool. Next model now. 

I wish the nam had ensembles 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the early part of the storm could be pretty pasty in a lot of areas. Maybe interior high terrain it starts drying out fairly quick but lower elevations might take a while until the CCB gets cranking. 

Is this valley paste a widespread NE concern, or for eastern portions? 

It appears I won't have to work this storm, and I'll be able to enjoy at home. I'm pretty excited about that. My first winter storm warning in Connecticut since moving here. 

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s a pretty uniform SFC temp display across the south/east half of SNE… from CT to the South Shore.

That steady moderate to heavy precipitation wet-bulbs everyone to 32-33F.  Theres some paste in there.

The earlier GFS runs had 925 temps collapsing after 9z, despite what the NAM was showing then.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I will say...I'm just glad it was nothing like 18z. I still don't think the NAM is worth a crap with this system until its mesoscale time but if it stayed coarse it would have to be a bit of a caution flag.

A caution flag if it’s not worth a crap with this system?  That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense Wiz…

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wish the nam had ensembles 

"I wish my shit had tentacles"

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The earlier GFS runs had 925 temps collapsing after 9z, despite what the NAM was showing then.

Yeah for sure it’ll crash when the wind backs NW, but getting 0.50-0.75” QPF at 32-33F would be a beautiful tree caking snow.