Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Sn0waddict]

10 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Later phase no bueno for Berks.

Wtf I’m supposed to go to the berks this weekend.  If the CT coast ends up with more ill be pissed lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CarverWX said:

I am kind of confused. The GFS and Euro go pound town down here but all snow maps show very low amounts? I know there's still time but these models have been consistent the last few runs.

A lot of the snow maps you are seeing are assuming 10 to 1 ratios. That won’t happen if your temps are like 34,35°. Which that could happen for a time.

What I have been trying to say, is that you need a good track and a really healthy cold conveyor belt to get higher and totals near the coast.  The coast is difficult, because literally one degree could mean the difference of several inches. Right now I’m sort of being a little conservative, but opening up the door for a potential higher amounts. I’ve been down this road before, and been burned before so I’m just keeping an eye out for that. 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

gfs was rubbish for much of the region.  

Rubbish??? What are you looking at? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Rubbish??? What are you looking at? 

Yeah, looks great here. Lol

[kazimirkai]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Next run it will jack the pike region. Regardless, first regionwide warning event since 2022. 

Well I'm in the Hudson Valley. A large portion of the snowfall in these forecasts are dependent on a solid band coming through near the first half of the storm that could easily shift south or east, leaving the brunt of the totals on the light to moderate accumulations through Sunday when the temperatures are higher and the snow liquid ratios aren't as favorable, but that's just my area. I'm not too concerned about an overall change in the character of the storm reducing totals for everyone

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Rubbish??? What are you looking at? 

Look at NNE, that's no good....also some of that qpf added there is not associated with the storm so it's worse than it looks

[Torch Tiger]

[mannynyc]

GEFS

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Quite bullish i might say,

GYX "most likely" for here is 4", more than most of the clown maps.  If we see 3-4 while SNE has lots of 10"+, good for them.  Looking back to when MA points saw 10-20"+ on 12/19-20/2009, I thought the same way.  However, come February when KUs #2 and #3 also whiffed here, the fun was gone.

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Rubbish??? What are you looking at? 

Free Man has the worst takes.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

The RGEM isn't even all that far fetched. All the models are trending closer to the trailing vort phasing nicely. 

I love a storm that matures and closes off at the mid levels right at our longitude. 

Heavies QPF happens during/because of greatest intensification rate -   let's do this!

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Look at NNE, that's no good....also some of that qpf added there is not associated with the storm so it's worse than it looks

TT .... But this never really was a storm for northern New England from the beginning. Only in the last several days did it show some model runs where it pushed into southern parts of northern New England. Hopefully you guys will get into some of this ( although, you're not even in northern New England lol )

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s probably gonna be another 24 hours before we have significant confidence. This set up is really intricate even though it feels like I’ve been saying that for three years now lol. There are short waves all over the place out west, and in the Midwest. Need to resolve how each of those plays apart.

Do you know that the "2nd S/W" in discussion is still out over the Pacific ocean as of the 12z initialization ? 

yes sir -

That ovoid piece there has to rise up over that shallow ridge axis along the coast, then careens like a bottle rocket all the way around the underside of that S/Wern quasi closed trough while it's opening up and smearing out down stream ...  Lot of moving parts and pieces being handled over the next 30 hours.  I thought this was on-board as of this morning but when I checked I was flat wrong about that assumption.  That's it there.  Folks should go trace that themselves...

[78Blizzard]

925 temps crash lower after 09z when the good stuff gets going.  -2C° at 9z here and heading lower from there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Quite bullish i might say,

Under. 

[TheSnowman]

15" - 20" For ME????  Oh My!!  

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Under. 

No? Really? Nothing today showed that hence my comment.

[Greg]

Just now, dryslot said:

No? Really? Nothing today showed that hence my comment.

Storm track and rates. ratios are always overdone.

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

15" - 20" For ME????  Oh My!!  

Don’t get mad if you get 11.

[dmcginvt]

46 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Look at NNE, that's no good....also some of that qpf added there is not associated with the storm so it's worse than it looks

LOL, I know you are just taking the piss, they don't care about NNE.  We get ours nickel and diming it to the bank not synoptically. We'll pick up a few to freshen the white on Sun, We'll get a heavy few before the rain on Tues, who knows if the next will cut too.  But we'll get ours. We always do.  This forum should be a show on the bravo channel with all the drama

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No? Really? Nothing today showed that hence my comment.

I wasn't under the impression that was your map...

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

15" - 20" For ME????  Oh My!!  

Accordion?

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No? Really? Nothing today showed that hence my comment.

Just the CMCs…especially up there.

[Prismshine Productions]

Brattleboro under a Winter Storm Watch, calling for 5-10" and gusts up to 35mph

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[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro and gfs blend is very good here. My guess is if those hold overnight those totals are coming up in se Mass 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

Brattleboro under a Winter Storm Watch, calling for 5-10" and gusts up to 35mph

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Danger ahead?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just the CMCs…especially up there.

I would have commented on that, But thats what it actually looks like without looking at the AFD.

[tavwtby]

ALY hoisted Watch for here with 8-12" pretty much for the forecast area outside of Aly west, and SVT, but if things keep trending SE, or a later phase, we're still looking at 4-8 here for my area, unless the midlvl magic happens, have to watch the H7 vort, thinking the same as everyone else, SEMA and pts Metro West jack with this one..

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Brattleboro under a Winter Storm Watch, calling for 5-10" and gusts up to 35mph

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Those winds are for the Hilltowns around you.  I think our area is probably good for 6” and be pleasantly surprised if we get more.

[moneypitmike]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re not at the goalpost setting stage?

 

Goal posts are between 2" and Kevin's rainstorm.

 

2 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said:

18z Reggie

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That's nearly 3' in Lunenburg.