Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[78Blizzard]

The RGEM track was almost a carbon copy of 12z's run.  Seems to have locked in on that, at least until we get to 0z, lol.

[Layman]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Quite bullish i might say,

What's the likelihood my area actually sees 12-18"?

While prior results don't equal future performance, my guess is likely 6-10" based on my recency-biased, winter-storm PTSD cynical perspective.  

[Greg]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

What's the likelihood my area actually sees 12-18"?

While prior results don't equal future performance, my guess is likely 6-10" based on my recency-biased, winter-storm PTSD cynical perspective.  

Seriously, the translation there is actually 12-13" is more likely then 18 in that range. Take the lower amounts of those ranges and the map then seems reasonable.

[CoastalWx]

41 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh, 2” in se Mass is low. Just my opinion.

Had 4-6 for you.

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Props to Kevin for naming rgem “reggie”

We Reggie .. we throw bars onto field 

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

At what point are short range models more important to look at than the GFS and EURO?

No.  Maybe day of event but NAM is never a complete go to except under certain circumstances-maybe severe wx.  That’s an old myth about tossing the euro/gfs close in.  I believed it but learned otherwise.

[Thunderblizzard]

GFS looks a bit less zonked than the 12z run. Big hit still.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs looks great

[ma blizzard]

GFS is a nice solution but wish the mid levels would get going a tick sooner 

[CoastalWx]

Goes hammer inside 495 into CT

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Thunderblizzard said:

GFS looks a bit less zonked than the 12z run

It has nowhere to go but down. Still looks great though. 

[ORH_wxman]

That’s an epic finish in SE MA. 

[weathafella]

Yeah I’ll take the gfs!   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Sematt!

[weathafella]

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sematt!

Snow capital of the universe

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1-2ft for Ray’s favorite corridor.

[RDRY]

Later phase no bueno for Berks.

[H2Otown_WX]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We Reggie .. we throw bars onto field 

The straw that stirs the model suite

[CoastalWx]

It’s probably gonna be another 24 hours before we have significant confidence. This set up is really intricate even though it feels like I’ve been saying that for three years now lol. There are short waves all over the place out west, and in the Midwest. Need to resolve how each of those plays apart.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Snow capital of the universe

The winter world has returned on its axis. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Totals cut for the 3rd run in a row but still solid

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Goes hammer inside 495 into CT

NE CT to NW RI to ORH may jack 

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The winter world has returned on its axis. 

Enjoy being fringed while EMA $ in, it's the only being fringed while EMA $ in you've got

[kazimirkai]

GFS cuts down alot on the whole western half of the impact region. For whatever reason I have a bad feeling about this storm under-performing in my area.

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NE CT to NW RI to ORH may jack 

Actually, just East of Worcester on that particular Output.

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We Reggie .. we throw bars onto field 

Reggie Jackson for the win!!!!

[Torch Tiger]

gfs was rubbish for much of the region.  

[CarverWX]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Had 4-6 for you.

I am kind of confused. The GFS and Euro go pound town down here but all snow maps show very low amounts? I know there's still time but these models have been consistent the last few runs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, kazimirkai said:

GFS cuts down alot on the whole western half of the impact region. For whatever reason I have a bad feeling about this storm under-performing in my area.

Next run it will jack the pike region. Regardless, first regionwide warning event since 2022.