Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Block Island. 

[CoastalWx]

What a whiff lol.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam’d

[dendrite]

That’s a hell of a CT screwgie

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What a whiff lol.

Let’s see Reggie take a big cut 

[Henry's Weather]

50 miles more of latitude would’ve done it.

[Ginx snewx]

I laugh at the attention you guys give the NAM. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I love this thing. Pure entertainment. One of these runs will be correct…

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That’s a hell of a CT screwgie

Not all....

[Prismshine Productions]

Ew

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[ineedsnow]

First watch of the year for SNE Congrats!!

[Greg]

Nammy being Nammy!

[MaineJayhawk]

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

Ew

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Somewhere the Pope laughs with his geese

[kazimirkai]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

NAM is a whiff for WAA, not for CCB

What are WAA and CCB?

[dendrite]

Just now, kazimirkai said:

What are WAA and CCB?

Warm air advection

cold conveyor belt

[Typhoon Tip]

It's easy to see why the NAM did this... It held onto the lead S/W by fractional amounts, and it's causing/pulling the low to escape east before the capture deal ...it does but that hesitation is crucial there.

It's basically re-introducing destructive interference.  It's counter intuitive but more is actually less in S/W tussle.  It the lead needs to attenuate so the 2nd can capture ... however we wanna say it.

[dryslot]

Warm Air Advection and Cold Conveyor Belt and was ninja'd

[drstuess]

Well .. not trying to be a wise ass buuut, nothing's "locked" in a 72 hours in a 'needle thread' pattern.
subtle movements in the last 18 hours can move a rain snow line N or S by 40 mi, can short term bust a forecast.
That said, the air mass on the front side of this thing is cold.  The DPs even out over the low GOM waters are I think that fights back as we get into the 36 hour window and we start seeing models collapse to a chillier boundary layer. 
I think the correction vector on the thermal is on the cold side for this one, but out of deference to the model... the short answer to your question has to be no - not locked in.

Thank you, i really appreciate it. I dont want to put words in your mouth, but applying your comments to the probabilistic maps, you think the NWS 10% high end maps showing
And sorry I used "locked in" a bit loosely, I just wanted to understand the likelihood.

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[Ginx snewx]

Just now, kazimirkai said:

What are WAA and CCB?

 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a whiff lol.

[radarman]

Watches up

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>014-026-RIZ001-003-050930-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0001.240106T2100Z-240108T0600Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield,
Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Ayer, Foster,
Smithfield, Coventry, and West Greenwich
327 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern,
northeastern and western Massachusetts and northern Rhode
Island.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Snow loading from
heavy wet snow may lead to power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow most likely north and west of
the I-95 corridor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
 

[CT Rain]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s a hell of a CT screwgie

It would almost be worth it for Kevin's melt. 

[Ginx snewx]

I don't see a needle thread pattern.  Seems very classic Nor'easter 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, kazimirkai said:

What are WAA and CCB?

Preface: not a met, subject to error.

WAA= warm air advection. This mode of precipitation is caused by warm front mechanics, generally. Warm air moving northward. Pre-mature cyclone.

CCB: cold conveyor belt. This type of snow is a result of cyclonic curvature funneling moist air into the dendrite-forming column in the atmosphere on the cold side of a system. It occurs during the strengthening of a cyclone to near peak strength and continues once it reaches maturity.

subject to correction

[RDRY]

NAM does funny stuff after its useful range. But this does illustrate the complex interplay of the trailing SW.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CT Rain said:

It would almost be worth it for Kevin's melt. 

Then to have an inversion cap all wind from getting down next week? 

sign me up -

[weatherwiz]

I haven't seen a whiff like that since Brad Marchand's failed shoot out attempt a few years ago. 

[kazimirkai]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Ohhhh yeah I remember making these in my atmospheric structure class two semesters ago

[Bryan63]

[metagraphica]

NWS with a WSW out for "Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York."   5-8" fits with my thinking unless we get the NAMMY.