Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Big ticket(s) in a few weeks.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Largest negative I see is the attenuating wave on approach....dynamics peak for N NJ and we get moderate residuals.

Don't get sucked into any hype...this is a "get off of the mat" event that will otherwise be entirely forgettable. 

Totally agree. Getting modest measurable this first week of January would be excellent, especially considering the pattern we see rolling forward on the EPS. We don’t need a one and done MECS. We need a window that’s legitimately open for multiple threats to produce over a longer period of time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Totally agree. Getting modest measurable this first week of January would be excellent, especially considering the pattern we see rolling forward on the EPS. We don’t need a one and done MECS. We need a window that’s legitimately open for multiple threats to produce over a longer period of time. 

When I say hype, I mean social media...no one in this thread. Nothing but reasonable analysis here.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big ticket(s) in a few weeks.

February could rock imo. Potential is great.

[moneypitmike]

Whether it materializes or not, who knows.....but it's been a long time since we've seen this.

 

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 8 to 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. East wind 8 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[moneypitmike]

06 GFS clown.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like the ceiling with this is a moderate event. Lots of lbsw runs and south ticks 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like the ceiling with this is a moderate event. Lots of lbsw runs and south ticks 

Rather have a bit south of us before the possible ticks(s) north as these do many times.  6z GEFS look great for me and you as well as EPS. 

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Rather have a bit south of us before the possible ticks(s) north as these do many times.  6z GEFS look great for me and you as well as EPS. 

This. Agreed.  Ensembles still look good as you say…steady, steady as she goes.  

[EastonSN+]

58 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Rather have a bit south of us before the possible ticks(s) north as these do many times.  6z GEFS look great for me and you as well as EPS. 

For us coasties definitely want another tick or two south.

[CoastalWx]

Won’t be much snow east of the coastal front with flaccid rates. I wouldn’t mind a north tick at 12z to get into the meat of the precip.

[MJO812]

Eps north

[MJO812]

Wake up SNE

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Wake up SNE

Weenie maps !

[CoastalWx]

EPS looked nice there.

[HoarfrostHubb]

EPS looks good this far out.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm a bit leery that these 'weaker' profile depictions overnight might be real and/as part of that attenuation business I was discussing in the thread opener. Not certain of it ... just leery.  I will say that I agree - this thing caps out at moderate.  That much is systemic, anyway

I'm also noticing that there is an innocuous S/W that has gained subtle strength hot on the heels of the Jan 7 wave space; it may also be introducing some negative interference. 

 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm a bit leery that these 'weaker' profile depictions overnight might be real and/as part of that attenuation business I was discussing in the thread opener. Not certain of it ... just leery.  I will say that I agree - this thing caps out at moderate.  That much is systemic, anyway

I'm also noticing that there is an innocuous S/W that has gained subtle strength hot on the heels of the Jan 7 wave space; it may also be introducing some negative interference. 

 

Absolutely...we're still at the stage where anything is possible really. Based on guidance assessment (ensembles and OP) these past few days we have a wide variety of potential outcomes and solutions. Spread is still high. Hopefully these next few days we start reducing the spread some and eliminating some of these potential solutions which are on the table. I'm still excited - given this is something to track, but important to keep a level head and understand the final outcome may not be what we want. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm a bit leery that these 'weaker' profile depictions overnight might be real and/as part of that attenuation business I was discussing in the thread opener. Not certain of it ... just leery.  I will say that I agree - this thing caps out at moderate.  That much is systemic, anyway

I'm also noticing that there is an innocuous S/W that has gained subtle strength hot on the heels of the Jan 7 wave space; it may also be introducing some negative interference. 

 

Agreed. Those subtle difference is why I’d keep expectations in the moderate range even if we get an ideal track. I do think there will be some double digit totals wherever the CCB meat sets up but as of now, I don’t think those will extend to outside those bands. But we’ll see. Sometimes these southern steamers like to juice up in the final few days. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Wake up SNE

I would gladly take 4-6" as my first NE snow event (especially considering where I moved from only averages .5" on a good year)

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

EPS individual ensemble members still have a large cluster that is a closer track

 

[WinterWolf]

I’m Certainly not expecting double digits, but a nice snowfall would be appreciated. I do like the way the ensembles look(we gladly take), but after last years horror show, if I end up with 4-6” from this, that’s a huge win, and gets us of the floor and on the board.  Happy we’re tracking as a forum once again. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual ensemble members still have a large cluster that is a closer track

 

The clusters with the sharpest shortwaves are definitely the whitest ones for the region. Driest cluster is more of a Southeast ridge looks with trof in Canada, so it just goes through the meat grinder. 

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. Those subtle difference is why I’d keep expectations in the moderate range even if we get an ideal track. I do think there will be some double digit totals wherever the CCB meat sets up but as of now, I don’t think those will extend to outside those bands. But we’ll see. Sometimes these southern steamers like to juice up in the final few days. 

You can see how that is a distinct possibility here. Just looking at it from a verbatim perspective, but if you have the low passing south of Long Island with a 50+ knot 850 jet feeding moisture into -6C 850 air there is going to be an abundance of moisture thrown into the CCB. Would probably see a pretty hefty band materialize in this situation. Sometimes this can be jackpot city for southern Connecticut just inland.

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. Those subtle difference is why I’d keep expectations in the moderate range even if we get an ideal track. I do think there will be some double digit totals wherever the CCB meat sets up but as of now, I don’t think those will extend to outside those bands. But we’ll see. Sometimes these southern steamers like to juice up in the final few days. 

Right on..

You know, I was amusing to self that this may go through a curve of attenuation followed by a kick back.  We lose 30% ...owing to that correction shit, then your bold aspect kicks in and we get maybe half what we lost back.   Warming to Advisory to very low end warning lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Lighter but longer duration is the short term trend. 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get the cluster south of ACK

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lighter but longer duration is the short term trend. 

Much preferred. Days and days instead of hours 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Driest cluster is more of a Southeast ridge looks with trof in Canada, so it just goes through the meat grinder. 

When do you think models may show which is more likely , stronger SW or grinded

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You can see how that is a distinct possibility here. Just looking at it from a verbatim perspective, but if you have the low passing south of Long Island with a 50+ knot 850 jet feeding moisture into -6C 850 air there is going to be an abundance of moisture thrown into the CCB. Would probably see a pretty hefty band materialize in this situation. Sometimes this can be jackpot city for southern Connecticut just inland.

One aspect that we less often cover as a group in this engagement are the mid and upper air jet mechanics.  But the overlay of the 500 mb and 300mb do indicate at least a somewhat favorable synoptic divergence potential in that layer.  There is a fairly strong wind max/arc entrance region exiting Maine as the more mid level exit jet region is approaching L.I.-ish.   That gap is a teeny bit larger than ideal... still, it may be close enough to enhance lift over the top of where the 700 mb is forced over the cold conveyor belt. 

I could see light snow farther N-W due to that "mid and upper air magic" .  

We're still 5 days away. It's probably more appropriate once we get closer.