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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


Typhoon Tip
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8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

General tilt seems more positive, slightly more separation between S/Ws. Should be less amped, good news for coastal crowd, bad news for dryslot and dendrite

I thought the 12z was dubiously warm in the lower levels to be honest. 

But it gets exhausting chasing the perfect scenario with plausible excuse after excuse every 6 hours lol.   Just letting these model runs come in at this point.

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought the 12z was dubiously warm in the lower levels to be honest. 

But this gets exhausting chasing the perfect scenario with with plausible excuse after excuse every 6 hours lol.   Just letting these model runs come in at this point.

 

It’s pretty draining dopaminurgically. 

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3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

It’s pretty draining dopaminurgically. 

Ha ha

No but I mean literally it ... the analysis effort is draining after awhile. Hell, even NWS gives their employees 16 hours a day to do other shit...

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Good ...maybe it'll translate to less warm intrusion during the first half of this thing for NYC-CT-RI
Are P-type issues locked in for S coast RI? I am seeing people run with those 10:1 maps, but NWS 10% high end map is still ~1 inch. If so, people probably are in for some disappointment.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, drstuess said:

Are P-type issues locked in for S coast RI? I am seeing people run with those 10:1 maps, but NWS 10% high end map is still ~1 inch. If so, people probably are in for some disappointment.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

Well .. not trying to be a wise ass buuut, nothing's "locked" in a 72 hours in a 'needle thread' pattern.

subtle movements in the last 18 hours can move a rain snow line N or S by 40 mi, can short term bust a forecast.

That said, the air mass on the front side of this thing is cold.  The DPs even out over the low GOM waters are < 25 F, and its cold in the vertical. 

I think that fights back as we get into the 36 hour window and we start seeing models collapse to a chillier boundary layer. 

I think the correction vector on the thermal is on the cold side for this one, but out of deference to the model... the short answer to your question has to be no - not locked in.

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