Henry's Weather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 General tilt seems more positive, slightly more separation between S/Ws. Should be less amped, good news for coastal crowd, bad news for dryslot and dendrite 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Good ...maybe it'll translate to less warm intrusion during the first half of this thing for NYC-CT-RI Yea, hopefully that Steve-to Will-to Brett-to Scooter corridor can catch a break for once. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, hopefully that Steve-to Will-to Brett-to Scooter corridor can catch a break for once. Lol. Passive aggressive shots already…hate to see it for the first snower of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: General tilt seems more positive, slightly more separation between S/Ws. Should be less amped, good news for coastal crowd, bad news for dryslot and dendrite I thought the 12z was dubiously warm in the lower levels to be honest. But it gets exhausting chasing the perfect scenario with plausible excuse after excuse every 6 hours lol. Just letting these model runs come in at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I thought the 12z was dubiously warm in the lower levels to be honest. But this gets exhausting chasing the perfect scenario with with plausible excuse after excuse every 6 hours lol. Just letting these model runs come in at this point. It’s pretty draining dopaminurgically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: It’s pretty draining dopaminurgically. Keep the Wellbutrin handy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looks like it may be a bit colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: It’s pretty draining dopaminurgically. Ha ha No but I mean literally it ... the analysis effort is draining after awhile. Hell, even NWS gives their employees 16 hours a day to do other shit... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Ha, part 1 might whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Quite bullish i might say, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, dryslot said: Quite bullish i might say, Woah, that’s amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Good ...maybe it'll translate to less warm intrusion during the first half of this thing for NYC-CT-RIAre P-type issues locked in for S coast RI? I am seeing people run with those 10:1 maps, but NWS 10% high end map is still ~1 inch. If so, people probably are in for some disappointment.Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, part 1 might whiff. Definitely exchanging WAA for CCB these past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, part 1 might whiff. I think we went back and forth with clown range on NAM for the blizzard 2 years ago. A few runs close in had a clean whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 You never can discount the Nams entertainment value though, It could do stand up comedy on a good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM still quite warm inside 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Quite bullish i might say, 8-12 but no watch for coastal cumberland? hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, Greg said: Anything after 60 hours on the NAM tends to get finicky. Honestly I think outside of 36 it is wonky often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, tunafish said: 8-12 but no watch for coastal cumberland? hmmm That map may have slipped out, Even here is 6-8", That would be watch worthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Going to have to weight for round 2 outside of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM featuring the late show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nam is fugly as all hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Its going to focus on the 2nd s/w as it looked to chase that convection offshore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Seems sus. I'll wait for the Navy to confirm 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Quite bullish i might say, I recall Chris (at some point) saying he really doesn't like going big on the opening bid because it results in scaling back, but the public has already seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nam is fugly as all hell Showery disjointed mess so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Watches up for outside 128 just as the NAM puts up a near-whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Going to have to weight for round 2 for everyone . Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, drstuess said: Are P-type issues locked in for S coast RI? I am seeing people run with those 10:1 maps, but NWS 10% high end map is still ~1 inch. If so, people probably are in for some disappointment. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Well .. not trying to be a wise ass buuut, nothing's "locked" in a 72 hours in a 'needle thread' pattern. subtle movements in the last 18 hours can move a rain snow line N or S by 40 mi, can short term bust a forecast. That said, the air mass on the front side of this thing is cold. The DPs even out over the low GOM waters are < 25 F, and its cold in the vertical. I think that fights back as we get into the 36 hour window and we start seeing models collapse to a chillier boundary layer. I think the correction vector on the thermal is on the cold side for this one, but out of deference to the model... the short answer to your question has to be no - not locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM is a whiff for WAA, not for CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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