STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 18" is too high IMO. Ray when does your next update come out , later tonite ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 18" is too high IMO. Someone could see that if things work perfectly....but i agree I wouldn't forecast anyone to get that amount. But if someone inland gets both good WAA snow and then hammers in the CCB, I'd bet ratios for them could easily pop a few 18-20 burgers.....but again, thats only in an optimal scenario. I think low end warning is the way to hedge right now with maybe some 12-16 lollis. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 agree with a 6-12" type deal for a decent amount of NE. I wouldn't rule out someone going over 18" though, especially with any possible wild convective banding that sets ups up in a particular zone. while 10 miles away is exhaust city. lol we've seen it with more than a couple recent storms, not impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Folks who imagine that more than a swath of 6-12+ could materialize do not understand the fundamental synoptics of the event. This has never had the firepower to be a long-duration, multi-stream merger blizzard. The question is SECS or low-end MECS (meaning a zone of 12-15), which is entirely dependent at this stage on whether the trailing energy can interact with the initial WAA-causing pulse and close off H5 south of the coast to prolong CCB for a couple more hours. I’ve seen a couple insinuations of 1-2 feet from some here, who are woefully demonstrating their lack of comprehension of or experience with these type of systems. That's just DIT being DIT, he knows we aren't actually getting 2' lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Someone could see that if things work perfectly....but i agree I wouldn't forecast anyone to get that amount. But if someone inland gets both good WAA snow and then hammers in the CCB, I'd bet ratios for them could easily pop a few 18-20 burgers.....but again, thats only in an optimal scenario. I think low end warning is the way to hedge right now with maybe some 12-16 lollis. The eps mean I s basically what I would forecast personally. Maybe less within 5 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Start high, Go higher, AMWX's motto. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 BOX should release their first suite of watches at 4 today, probably going to go for 6-12+ interior, 4-8 along coast excluding cape and islands 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z ENS actually came in beefier, not as much as 0z, but an improvement over 6zSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: agree with a 6-12" type deal for a decent amount of NE. I wouldn't rule out someone going over 18" though, especially with any possible wild convective banding that sets ups up in a particular zone. while 10 miles away is exhaust city. lol we've seen it with more than a couple recent storms, not impossible. The 4-8, 8-12, and 6-10 were mostly on the table if this thing tracks classically. The 18" amount was highly unlikely with both the speed and temps on this storm. Now if, and it's a very large "If" a death band over some elevation occurred, then the possibility would increase of that happening but still in the end, an unlikely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The eps mean I s basically what I would forecast personally. Maybe less within 5 miles of the coast. seems like a tamer version of the GFS. the 12z GFS was the ceiling in my opinion, and the RGEM got close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Greg said: The 4-8, 8-12, and 6-10 were mostly on the table if this thing tracks classically. The 18" amount was highly unlikely with both the speed and temps on this storm. Now if, and it's a very large "If" a death band over some elevation occurred, then the possibility would increase of that happening but still in the end, an unlikely scenario. oh I agree, wouldn't forecast it ...yet <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 31 minutes ago, wxsniss said: A hair better than 0z: Take that in a second. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Someone could see that if things work perfectly....but i agree I wouldn't forecast anyone to get that amount. But if someone inland gets both good WAA snow and then hammers in the CCB, I'd bet ratios for them could easily pop a few 18-20 burgers.....but again, thats only in an optimal scenario. I think low end warning is the way to hedge right now with maybe some 12-16 lollis. Agree. I think our first call will be 3-6 or 4-8 for the shoreline with a strong gradient possibility discussed and 6-12 for inland CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Agree. I think our first call will be 3-6 or 4-8 for the shoreline with a strong gradient possibility discussed and 6-12 for inland CT. We’re just happy legit snow maps will be created and distributed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Take that in a second. Yup. I’ve got 8-12” for us along 84 in WCT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GYX watches are up for southern areas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 36 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ray when does your next update come out , later tonite ? Saturday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’m thinking 10-15 here, it’s coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 From Eric Fisher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re just happy legit snow maps will be created and distributed. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I was talking with some friends at BTV earlier in the season, "laughing" that we'd be on the outside looking in in Jan/Feb watching storm after storm run thru the benchmark and leaving us with 1" of cold smoke or, worse, staring at high cirrus. Here we go, I guess......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Bryan63 said: From Eric Fisher Not sure I would follow the coastline that much north of BOS, but not a bad first guess. If he's thinking marine issues, Essex county coast isn't really immune to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Somebody wake up Henry VIII .. the NAM is running 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Out to hr27, ridge is slightly flatterSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 PBP on the 18z NAM-now that’s a weenie! (Not that I wouldn’t do it….) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m thinking 10-15 here, it’s coming. That's about what I was thinking, too. I have seen various model runs over the past couple of days enhancing the snow in this general area. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looks a bit less amped than 12z through 36h, so that's prob how it will play out this run....but NAM is always full of surprises the deeper into clown range you get on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks a bit less amped than 12z through 36h, so that's prob how it will play out this run....but NAM is always full of surprises the deeper into clown range you get on that model. Good ...maybe it'll translate to less warm intrusion during the first half of this thing for NYC-CT-RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks a bit less amped than 12z through 36h, so that's prob how it will play out this run....but NAM is always full of surprises the deeper into clown range you get on that model. By clown range you mean anything after 0h 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: By clown range you mean anything after 0h Anything after 60 hours on the NAM tends to get finicky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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