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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's not a blockbuster event. But after last year, a lot of folks are gun shy methinks.  

I'd be happy with 4-8 from this, but expecting a little more

Yeah, I think a lot of it is people are waiting for the other shoe to drop because of how awful it’s been for two years.

 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think the gfs and euro are that far apart for this being a 75 or so hour forecast. You could do worse.

That's what I mean. Not a whole lot different so I don't know how much value is added by digging into the Euro. I still see the same issues that I've had concerns for.

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28 minutes ago, Layman said:

I don't think they offer AWD to the drivers delivering to my area.  I've pulled my fair share of Amazon vans off my lawn.  From my own personal archive...

January 20, 2023

image.thumb.jpeg.5e8673d8263f05a132559309665f3912.jpeg

 

January 23, 2023 - note the tracks through the snowbank above the van from the prior off-roading experience.  These were 2 different drivers.

image.thumb.jpeg.e4a65ed0f1e3a5f325f46308abceb723.jpeg

i don't drive for Amazon :lol:  Yeah never seen any of their trucks or vans with AWD, they seem to drive ram promaster vans almost exclusively.

anyway, glad the Euro was better down in CT

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I mean this thing's got a ceiling folks.  I think we've kissed it with some of these solution over the last couple of run cycles.  Probably we're bouncing at this point forward, with some runs less and some run back to this ... but there is an upper limit to what this thing can do given the input. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can't keep upping the dosage

 

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I also think the GFS provided the biggest dopamine injection in years too so there’s only so much higher you can go 

Beat ya to it :P 

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I thought the same thing... weird.. I think bc it's a bigger hit down here, less posters?

I think some were wanting a ticker tape parade 

i think gfs also stole its thunder a tad and many posters N of pike it was moderate / reassuring but nothing wow for 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think some were wanting a ticker tape parade 

i think gfs also stole its thunder a tad and many posters N of pike it was moderate / reassuring but nothing wow for 

NAM might go wild lol

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Ensembles tightened a little 

many seem in a freaking good spot to give a very solid warning event to most of SNE 

lets see this sustain itself bc we are dealing with a rather delicate interaction with secondary shortwave that if 6 hrs later or sooner makes a considerable difference in duration and banding 

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Folks who imagine that more than a swath of 6-12+ could materialize do not understand the fundamental synoptics of the event. This has never had the firepower to be a long-duration, multi-stream merger blizzard. The question is SECS or low-end MECS (meaning a zone of 12-15), which is entirely dependent at this stage on whether the trailing energy can interact with the initial WAA-causing pulse and close off H5 south of the coast to prolong CCB for a couple more hours. I’ve seen a couple insinuations of 1-2 feet from some here, who are woefully demonstrating their lack of comprehension of or experience with these type of systems.

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2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Folks who imagine that more than a swath of 6-12+ could materialize do not understand the fundamental synoptics of the event. This has never had the firepower to be a long-duration, multi-stream merger blizzard. The question is SECS or low-end MECS (meaning a zone of 12-15), which is entirely dependent at this stage on whether the trailing energy can interact with the initial WAA-causing pulse and close off H5 south of the coast to prolong CCB for a couple more hours. I’ve seen a couple insinuations of 1-2 feet from some here, who are woefully demonstrating their lack of comprehension of or experience with these type of systems.

I seriously don't think any poster on here ever saw this as more than 6-12" with an isolated jack of 18 kinda storm.. This is still likely a 6-12" storm for the max zone with the potential for a 12-18" stripe if we get this to slow down and nuke somewhere near the cape which will allow the ccb to become quasi-stationary.. 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I seriously don't think any poster on here ever saw this as more than 6-12" with an isolated jack of 18 kinda storm.. This is still likely a 6-12" storm for the max zone with the potential for a 12-18" stripe if we get this to slow down and nuke somewhere near the cape which will allow the ccb to become quasi-stationary.. 

18" is too high IMO.

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