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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty bad run to run consistency from every piece of guidance now. If we can just get the gfs and euro to lock in now that would be great. 

Yup. Good to see that 00z was a blip though. 
 

00z

cisu62y.png
 

12z

fmX859d.png

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16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Amazon gives me AWD, we good

I don't think they offer AWD to the drivers delivering to my area.  I've pulled my fair share of Amazon vans off my lawn.  From my own personal archive...

January 20, 2023

image.thumb.jpeg.5e8673d8263f05a132559309665f3912.jpeg

 

January 23, 2023 - note the tracks through the snowbank above the van from the prior off-roading experience.  These were 2 different drivers.

image.thumb.jpeg.e4a65ed0f1e3a5f325f46308abceb723.jpeg

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

All of those clown maps are guesses and produced by the vendor, not the model.  I would advise ignoring them and looking at soundings, snow growth, and qpf.

I mean I guess you could just look at qpf and temperature throughout the event and estimate

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Still lots of uncertainty, but seems 0z Euro was the anomaly

Gap from here to 12z GFS is a more potent trailing s/w and associated earlier capture... highly impactful variations that are easily within noise at 60h-72h

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 

there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

Shows you the negative tilt / mindset of some posters... Lol... Who wants good news... It's more fun complaining...

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 

there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

I would guess the ensembles match the op well but def worth checking soon

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Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 
there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 
Failure fatigue from last season, December and previous forecast for January!

"Show me the money!"

But yeah, should be party time
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Just now, FXWX said:

Shows you the negative tilt / mindset of some posters... Lol... Who wants good news... It's more fun complaining...

I also think the GFS provided the biggest dopamine injection in years too so there’s only so much higher you can go 

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Just now, Winter Wizard said:

Mixing issues near the coast otherwise Euro looked sweet for most people. Getting closer to locking in a nice hit. 

It's mild pretty well inland. They'll probably wetbulb to near 32 or below though. 

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