Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ray took a bathroom break at work to check the gfs and walked back to his deck with pants down at ankles…updating his lego snow map shortly. 

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Need more than gfs/gefs though. A compromise between it and euro/cmc/uk would suffice. 

waiting on the Euro, but so far according to the clown maps our region should expect anywhere from 4-20 inches....goal posts have widened.

GEFS are pretty consistent on the track it seems, but disagree on strength 

[8611Blizz]

As a coastal dweller about 5 miles from Logan that redevelopment is key here.  Difference between 2 and 6 probably. 

[MuddyWx]

could definitely see something like this verify

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to keep in mind when using the 10:1 snow maps (which should never be used anyways) is snowfall ratios for the most part are going to be better than 10:1, especially farther inland and especially under the heaviest banding. I would think ratios could be as high as 15:1 to 18:1. 

Depends where the snow is coming from and the cross sections....the WAA snow is prob going to be less than 10 to 1 in a lot of places in lower elevations....might be higher in the interior high terrain though. But the CCB snows if they happen will probably be better than 10 to 1 since the column just rapidly cools and temps drop into the 20s.....and as of now, it looks like excellent snow growth in the CCB.....but the question is still where the CCB occurs and how quickly it develops.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Depends where the snow is coming from and the cross sections....the WAA snow is prob going to be less than 10 to 1 in a lot of places in lower elevations....might be higher in the interior high terrain though. But the CCB snows if they happen will probably be better than 10 to 1 since the column just rapidly cools and temps drop into the 20s.....and as of now, it looks like excellent snow growth in the CCB.....but the question is still where the CCB occurs and how quickly it develops.

Yup that is certainly key for sure.  

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

12z GFS BUFKIT BDL!!!!!!! Oh my please verify...holy cow. 

Thunder's happening in this, no question.

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

MHT to Dendrite congrats.

Always congrats Dendrite.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thunder's happening in this, no question.

Fairly unstable in the mlvls 

[FXWX]

Quick question... are the NAM banding products still available?  My url takes me to March 2023???  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, FXWX said:

Quick question... are the NAM banding products still available?  My url takes me to March 2023???  

Unfortunately no. Sent a message to Walt. They're aware but it's a low priority fix right now but hopefully soon.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian ensembles are across the southern New England coast lol.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Fairly unstable in the mlvls 

Can you share HFD?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Can you share HFD?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

17 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

could definitely see something like this verify

Kind of what I’m expecting actually.

[FXWX]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Unfortunately no. Sent a message to Walt. They're aware but it's a low priority fix right now but hopefully soon.

crap... thanks Wiz...  if GFS is close to right that banding signature would be glowing on that product...  

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian ensembles are across the southern New England coast lol.

Rains to Maines .. ? 

[Typhoon Tip]

Waiting on the Euro before signing on the dotted line re major event - didn't like it's comparatively paltry performance overnight but every model's allowed to take a nap on a system for a run or two just the same.

All other available guidance into a blender pours a cup of low end major criteria impact.  As 'Wiz pointed out, duration may keep a major system to upper tier moderate impact.  Really a matter or 2 or 3 hours of difference there -

Somewhat multi-faceted:

snow ... particularly on an unrehearsed civility.  It's been a unwinter-like and probably that lack of testing can be dated back a couple of years.  HFD to Boston's western subburbs choking to 14" in a rapid fall rate is a regional scale - it's not the same thing as a couple of towns here.

wind ... shores and to some short distance inland through snow loaded infrastructure inducing power outages. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

crap... thanks Wiz...  if GFS is close to right that banding signature would be glowing on that product...  

Indeed, one of my favorite part about winter storms with great banding is seeing that product  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie on board with the big Sunday finish. It's a little faster though....more like late morning/midday is when eastern areas get croaked instead of deeper into Sunday afternoon like the GFS

Curious what your call would be for this area? I’d like to think I’m far enough inland to avoid marine influence.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

WPC snow probs just starting to come into range thru 12z Sunday . They like Poughkeepsie to ORH to ASH and N about 75 miles of that line in a rectangle for highest probs of 8” plus thru Sunday 12z

was posted around 10am

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, HimoorWx said:

 

 

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk
 

 

I was thinking the exact same thing when I read that.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big north jump on GGEM

Bring on your rain.  

[kazimirkai]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Depends where the snow is coming from and the cross sections....the WAA snow is prob going to be less than 10 to 1 in a lot of places in lower elevations....might be higher in the interior high terrain though. But the CCB snows if they happen will probably be better than 10 to 1 since the column just rapidly cools and temps drop into the 20s.....and as of now, it looks like excellent snow growth in the CCB.....but the question is still where the CCB occurs and how quickly it develops.

I'm about 65 miles from the coast in S upstate NY and I seem to be right in where the 10:1 line is. Every time I check the kuchera it tends to be about the same amount with an increase north of me and a decrease south. Of course that probably changes as you go east but that's where the 10:1 line is on the western side of the impact zone

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, kazimirkai said:

I'm about 65 miles from the coast in S upstate NY and I seem to be right in where the 10:1 line is. Every time I check the kuchera it tends to be about the same amount with an increase north of me and a decrease south. Of course that probably changes as you go east but that's where the 10:1 line is on the western side of the impact zone

All of those clown maps are guesses and produced by the vendor, not the model.  I would advise ignoring them and looking at soundings, snow growth, and qpf.

[MaineJayhawk]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian ensembles are across the southern New England coast lol.

Th inevitable Freak jack?

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

WPC snow probs just starting to come into range thru 12z Sunday . They like Poughkeepsie to ORH to ASH and N about 75 miles of that line in a rectangle for highest probs of 8” plus thru Sunday 12z

was posted around 10am

Can you repost?  I wasn't quite up yet....

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Th inevitable Freak jack?

He probably has some sort of WRF model and those ensembles looping in tandem on his laptop.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

All of those clown maps are guesses and produced by the vendor, not the model.  I would advise ignoring them and looking at soundings, snow growth, and qpf.

I would like to send you a bottle of wine

[weathafella]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I would like to send you a bottle of wine

I'll pm you address and preferred vintage.  lol...

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

12/9/05 enroute

Excuse me?