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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


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The GFS was certainly fun and exciting but still going to exercise caution for now. Still holding off on making a snow map until 12z models tomorrow. We've seen this script before...we got to about a range we're in now and start seeing some impressive solutions (from multiple models) only for everything to taper some the following suite of model runs. I've been bitten big time in the past riding the pony while it was eating. I'll wait for it to chew, swallow, and maybe poop first. 

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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's like a 12/9/05-lite ending. We're getting 60+ knots inflow at 850 by Sunday PM. That's crazy.....considering it starts as light WAA 12 hours earlier.

did anyone ever check the CIPs analogs?  that 12/9/05 system - you know we talked about that last week, but it keeps reminding us of it.  Might be worth it to check.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS was certainly fun and exciting but still going to exercise caution for now. Still holding off on making a snow map until 12z models tomorrow. We've seen this script before...we got to about a range we're in now and start seeing some impressive solutions (from multiple models) only for everything to taper some the following suite of model runs. I've been bitten big time in the past riding the pony while it was eating. I'll wait for it to chew, swallow, and maybe poop first. 

You're psychologist would be proud of you for rehearsing that self-control over your depression management without intervention of Librium -   

lol

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1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said:

@CoastalWx - take 3 to 5” and be happy with anything over?

It’s a really tough call. I think if the GFS happen I’d probably take the over, but close tracks may bring in warm air especially right along the coast. Go 128 down to Interior Southeast mass and you’d probably be OK.

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31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Most of these solutions are still crushing my hood pretty well.  I would take a blend of the NAM, RGEM, GFS, EURO, GDPS, throwi in the old DGEX if it is still running on an old Commodore VIC-20

OH you and I are golden here.

It's not our complaint privilege on this one -

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Ukie on board with the big Sunday finish. It's a little faster though....more like late morning/midday is when eastern areas get croaked instead of deeper into Sunday afternoon like the GFS

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Need more than gfs/gefs though. A compromise between it and euro/cmc/uk would suffice. 

You guys know how I feel about 18z…get ready for a fluke run… in either direction imo. 
 

I have to say though, that on most all the modeling, we’ve been looking pretty solid here.  Hope that is the case. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to keep in mind when using the 10:1 snow maps (which should never be used anyways) is snowfall ratios for the most part are going to be better than 10:1, especially farther inland and especially under the heaviest banding. I would think ratios could be as high as 15:1 to 18:1. 

Gotta disagree

Mmm nah danger there forecasting remotely near those rates

Maybe a reason to say (+) next to some forecast amounts 

 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

One thing to keep in mind when using the 10:1 snow maps (which should never be used anyways) is snowfall ratios for the most part are going to be better than 10:1, especially farther inland and especially under the heaviest banding. I would think ratios could be as high as 15:1 to 18:1. 

General ideas is all I think of them as.

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