Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Doesn't look like this page is in service anymore :sad: 

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

Ninjad someone get a hold of Walt or Bob

[NittanyWx]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The issues aloft you mention, notwithstanding ... the bold appears to be the bigger constraint when negotiating p-type ( from what I'm seeing).

Firstly, the storm's synopsis and features may be too far NW-N?

It's been discussed in the past ... the NAM tends to have a NW bias over the western Atlantic Basin with handling coastal cyclogen and subsequent tracks - particularly outside 36 to 48 hour window. 

In addition to above, there is also a known tendency for systems of more than less S origin, to bump N as they move into shorter ranges. 

Those are two disparate error considerations.

This run of the NAM strikes me as logistically having both those issues questionable.  Or not, but the point being, ...since they are valid I would be careful. 

 

I'll toss in another complicating factor, there's been a steady increase in mid level activity/vorts in the Midwest too since the western feature started getting sampled.

 

I agree with you, FWIW on inherent NAM biases at hr 60, part of the reason i'm cautious and suspicious it's a bit overwarmed.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

oh boy oh boy oh boy

Big question, is it believable? That run is pretty much perfection here... 

[CoastalWx]

Woof, hopefully the Canadian downed a few Labatts before initializing.

[Winter Wizard]

The trailing vort over the Deep South tells the story here...it's more progressive, so the trough turns negative sooner, and that allows our storm to deepen further. The ceiling has been raised with this one. 

[amarshall]

Many TV mets just went all in an hour ago on rain on the twitter. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said:

The trailing vort over the Deep South tells the story here...it's more progressive, so the trough turns negative sooner, and that allows our storm to deepen further. The ceiling has been raised with this one. 

That's the feature to get a higher ceiling for sure, and the trend today so far. Can see the low of NJ sort of sitting there waiting haha.

[8611Blizz]

Just now, amarshall said:

Many TV mets just went all in an hour ago on rain on the twitter. 

Yeah nws is not that enthused for the coast in particular.  They don't seem to have much faith in the heavy solutions. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is over the canal lol.

I saw that.  Still a huge crushing even after taint in some places.

[Patrick-02540]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Woof, hopefully the Canadian downed a few Labatts before initializing.

That's a bottle of Crown Royal. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Yeah nws is not that enthused for the coast in particular.  They don't seem to have much faith in the heavy solutions. 

NWS has a bias to downplay events to prevent overhype

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[Prismshine Productions]

Canadian crushed the interior

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[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Big question, is it believable? That run is pretty much perfection here... 

Just like the 00z Euro, I’d need to see more from other guidance to really see it as anything other than an outlier. For reasons posted above though the ceiling is pretty high, even if it doesn’t quite work out in the end. 

[brooklynwx99]

that kicker has certainly trended faster, leading to a more cohesive phase. inclined to believe the GFS is on crack, but this is a convincing trend

[HinghamBoss]

Can someone call Harvey?

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Woof, hopefully the Canadian downed a few Labatts before initializing.

Maybe some of these?

[Damage In Tolland]

Big north jump on GGEM

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Canadian crushed the interior

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YIKES 

[CoastalWx]

It's funny the GGEM is more amped than its hi res brother.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Canadian crushed the interior

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Only matter of time until the Canadian starts to suck in the NNE crew.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Most of these solutions are still crushing my hood pretty well.  I would take a blend of the NAM, RGEM, GFS, EURO, GDPS, throwi in the old DGEX if it is still running on an old Commodore VIC-20

[George001]

Holy shit, it’s actually happening. A few days ago when there were 2 camps, one weak and agreed and another way north, the Navy was north. Everything caved to the Canadian and Navy!

[mreaves]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Only matter of time until the Canadian starts to suck in the NNE crew.

I am giving it a side-eyed glance but much like the young, attractive French girls in the Montreal of my youth, it will probably not give me the time of day.

[George001]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

YIKES 

Ran straight out of Torch Tigers basement, I’m happy for him. The pattern supports it too.

[Greg]

Usually when you see the GEM too amped, which it does have that bias, compared to its regional one, that is a flag that the global GEM is way too amped to be real.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's funny the GGEM is more amped than its hi res brother.

Yeah it just rips that initial front-running s/w north into Maine with very little resistance....that causes the trailer to close off further north too. Tossed for now, but we keep an eye on that possibility.

A much stronger initial s/w would make the WAA thump really good, but it would make the grand finale rtoo far northeast for most of us....mostly a Maine thing.

[Newman]

The Canadian has also trended the way of the GFS, that 2nd vort catching up. It's not fully there yet, further north of a close off compared to the GFS. But we'll see if this trend continues into the evening and overnight suites

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I love posting clown maps it triggers so many(not you)

That maybe some cf cj

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

GGEM is like 3” here while the gfs is 20”…. Good luck figuring that out lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Canadian crushed the interior

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There it is, the Dave and Ineedsnow jackpot I’ve been waiting for and expecting for days.