Heisy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This is potentially turning into a chase worthy event. Didn’t think that was even possible few days ago. I’ll think about it you lucky dogs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty pasty for a chunk of it though so it wouldn't all be 10:1 there....but some of the CCB would prob be better than 10:1 as temps crash and there's excellent snow growth. I love posting clown maps it triggers so many(not you) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Dang, I think I'm out unless models start ticking back southeast a bit. maybe an inch on the backend Maybe we can 12/9/05 your area....grab a few inches and 90-100mph winds at the end. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I love posting clown maps it triggers so many(not you) Icon is a little torchy here, don’t like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 23 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast. That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west. As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors. 0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft. I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk. The issues aloft you mention, notwithstanding ... the bold appears to be the bigger constraint when negotiating p-type ( from what I'm seeing). Firstly, the storm's synopsis and features may be too far NW-N? It's been discussed in the past ... the NAM tends to have a NW bias over the western Atlantic Basin with handling coastal cyclogen and subsequent tracks - particularly outside 36 to 48 hour window. In addition to above, there is also a known tendency for systems of more than less S origin, to bump N as they move into shorter ranges. Those are two disparate error considerations. This run of the NAM strikes me as logistically having both those issues questionable. Or not, but the point being, ...since they are valid I would be careful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Been saying it since the get go this has a Ray jack written all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon is a little torchy here, don’t like. That trough interaction is what makes it dicey for se areas..you can see the low get tugged northward/northwestward towards LI before it shoots east, which changes coastal sections over. I suppose we also want to see the confluence stand strong, or start ticking stronger again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I haven't seen anybody say anything about this, but they NAM tends to be over amped especially 3 days out. We've seen this before with other storms where the name brings things up and over amps things. And then we see it settle back down within a day or so. I know this would be good for some in central/northern New England if this were to verify, but, I just don't see this going that far north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Been saying it since the get go this has a Ray jack written all over it. He's due good for him.. Hope he gets a 20 spot .. Hopefully the West CT folks will be next this season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I haven't seen anybody say anything about this, but they NAM tends to be over amped especially 3 days out. We've seen this before with other storms where the name brings things up and over amps things. And then we see it settle back down within a day or so. I know this would be good for some in central/northern New England if this were to verify, but, I just don't see this going that far north. We haven’t had the powderfreak jack run yet though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Where? He is still in the TAN area. Just gone from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I haven't seen anybody say anything about this, but they NAM tends to be over amped especially 3 days out. We've seen this before with other storms where the name brings things up and over amps things. And then we see it settle back down within a day or so. I know this would be good for some in central/northern New England if this were to verify, but, I just don't see this going that far north. Ya you kinda want the nam and rgem amped at this range , and if the euro ens follow then I’d give them more weight , until then I’d guess the Meso’s might have a amped bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I haven't seen anybody say anything about this, but they NAM tends to be over amped especially 3 days out. We've seen this before with other storms where the name brings things up and over amps things. And then we see it settle back down within a day or so. I know this would be good for some in central/northern New England if this were to verify, but, I just don't see this going that far north. Don't do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We haven’t had the powderfreak jack run yet though Just gotta fire up the ARW for those. But a NAM run that gets pingers to Ray is probably due in the next 2-3 cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 That RGEM run would even work here if it ticked about 25 miles. Crazy solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just gotta fire up the ARW for those. But a NAM run that gets pingers to Ray is probably due in the next 2-3 cycles. Seems like the second short wave interaction and the details of it , will be tbe bigger driving factor now in future track and amounts , would you agree or ..and if so when do you think models really get confident in that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Having the trailing s/w catching the lead one on modeling east of ACK seems to be gaining traction which is helping CNE/NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 So tfwiw, I just looked over the NAM It's clearly more powerful with the resulting S/W product that it then moves under Long Island by 1 to 1.5 deg lat. That's a climate-based signal for the HFD-BED for one. But, it's not even as linear in structure anymore; it's flat out negatively tilting and closing a 500 mb isohypses - What's interesting is that it's sans the WAA snow burst on the front side in lieu of just correcting the whole storm's ferocity/expression from 12z Sunday throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Some of these milder runs are because the front end goes to shit. Would be nice to keep it going...ala Reggie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Icon btwSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I love posting clown maps it triggers so many(not you) I’ll take my 6” out of this and run; that’s half of last years total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The problem with the forecast here is truly how the SW behaves/interacts. It seems to want to hang back a little too long vs being absorbed or gelling quicker into the main offshore low. The Southeast tracks of the main ocean low are good. It keeps the heaviest precipitation in the heart of our viewing area. But if the SW hangs back too much then this thing comes farther north which is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Finally a Patriots game worth watching this season 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Finally a Patriots game worth watching this season Let’s hope the Jets win 3-0 and we get the third pick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of these milder runs are because the front end goes to shit. Would be nice to keep it going...ala Reggie. Small nuances that likely won’t be resolved until sometime later tomorrow, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Icon btw Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk dislike toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS looks a little south at least with the initial stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Maybe slower? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looks a little south at least with the initial stuff. Looks like its setting up for some hefty banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe slower? Looked slower to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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