Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ticking away.  Expect a monster from euro tonight sne up into parts of NNE.

We may get some monster runs, but I feel like 8-12" is probably the ceiling here.

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

ukie is really amped best in NNE

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah ukie looks more like the 12z ggem

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet the mid levels would deliver near me on that run.

Always want to be on the NW side of the QPF gradient.  Agreed.

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Still a good amount of spread…and still skewed NW 

[weathafella]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We may get some monster runs, but I feel like 8-12" is probably the ceiling here.

Yeah duration limited.

[weathafella]

Uncle definitely says sne hold my beer-I’m hitting NNE.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie says all rain for 495 belt SE, we toss for our sanity 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle definitely says sne hold my beer-I’m hitting NNE.

That thing is so erratic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could even see the EURO doing something like that in about 40 minutes, but I won't be shaken unless the EPS does it.

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could even see the EURO doing something like that in about 40 minutes, but I won't be shaken unless the EPS does it.

There are some signs this is the trend though at least tonight.  Everything came north including the gfs.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There are some signs this is the trend though at least tonight.  Everything came north including the gfs.  

Well, the GFS had to come north....the GEM came south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would rather deal with this than a fringe, though.

[ineedsnow]

Euro and GFS have the low in almost the same exact  spot at hr120 

[weathafella]

Euro is a moderate snow up to the pike.  Now the southern solution.

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would rather deal with this than a fringe, though.

Definitely fringy on the euro tonight.  

[78Blizzard]

Euro less amped and south from 12z.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Definitely fringy on the euro tonight.  

it increased the confluence and deamplified the main vort

[78Blizzard]

Quite the meh evolution.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea but that’s fine. Hangs back some mid level stuff, good event for sne. Wintry wknd vibes. 

[78Blizzard]

This could be one of those situations where the models can't get an agreement even within 3 days.  I remember one of those last year.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

How bad it’s been, this would feel like KU:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010200&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

How bad it’s been, this would feel like KU:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010200&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Yea, obviously you are happy with it....I'd stab the children's dolls.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS is probably steady with a slight tick south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, obviously you are happy with it....I'd stab the children's dolls.

Actually, looking again it looks like the GFS...mid levels should be good.

Oh well...another run.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Actually, looking again it looks like the GFS...mid levels should be good.

Oh well...another run.

There was a hint in the qpf distribution of the effect of the mid levels.  Still d6 so more changes likely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There was a hint in the qpf distribution of the effect of the mid levels.  Still d6 so more changes likely.

Models always focus the QPF near the low level deformation, which gets exposed when you have closed mid level centers.....will be high stakes with the confluence to the north. I envision going from a 10" JP to a couple inches of sand over several miles.

[weathafella]

EPS.  

Overall the biggest change today was the speed-earlier in and out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Largest negative I see is the attenuating wave on approach....dynamics peak for N NJ and we get moderate residuals.

Don't get sucked into any hype...this is a "get off of the mat" event that will otherwise be entirely forgettable.