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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


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Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast.  That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west.

 

As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors.  0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft.

 

I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.

 

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9 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast.  That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west.

 

As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors.  0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft.

 

I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.

 

A track just south of Long Island will generally bring mid level warmth to the south coast not much of a surprise ..  NAM is on the northern envelope right now,  its like 25 south of the twin forks.. RGEM similar track, more intense.. If we get that track locked in a lot of the south coast is cooked after a wet few inches..

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1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Last sighting he was trolling another subforum that was much iffier for snow

Easy, find the region that fits your forecast. The geese flew 150 miles south apparently.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

fwiw and its not very much, Lot of 1"+ qpf on the 12z ICON.

Yeah though it was a bit more subdued and a tick south of the 06z run which was even more wild. Still a really good solution for a lot of the forum though.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

18 spot for old man winter.

Pretty pasty for a chunk of it though so it wouldn't all be 10:1 there....but some of the CCB would prob be better than 10:1 as temps crash and there's excellent snow growth.

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