Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Will grab a few inches after CF passes, just a matter of what happens prior. I think so too as long as it doesn’t track over the cape.

Could get nasty sunday PM....a lot of places that were getting paste will freeze pretty quickly as temps crash into the 20s.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Def a tick SE on 6z eps, love to see it, keep the ticks south coming for us southerners. Good luck everyone back to work til 12:30 will be watching for updates on the phone.. 

[WxWatcher007]

For the clown lovers and queens among us.

 

25th

 

50th

 

75th  

 

Mean

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Def a tick SE on 6z eps, love to see it, keep the ticks south coming for us southerners. Good luck everyone back to work til 12:30 will be watching for updates on the phone.. 

Going to be tough to rain off the beaches with those looks 

[weatherwiz]

I think the one thing that will hold accumulation potential back a bit is the speed. This should be fairly progressive. Even if snow is lingering if we get a boost from the trailing shortwave, it's most likely going to be light snow which probably doesn't amount to much in terms of accumulation (maybe an inch or two). Overall though, the window for the heaviest snowfall rates is relatively short...maybe 2-3 hours (4 at most). Something to keep in mind when looking for the higher ceiling of totals. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Could get nasty sunday PM....a lot of places that were getting paste will freeze pretty quickly as temps crash into the 20s.

Exactly. Recipe for Phil.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/jayshaferwx/status/1742883051066061010?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Going to be tough to rain off the beaches with those looks 

I’m not saying it will, but we watch the track that’s all. At least you’re in a good part of TAN.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/jayshaferwx/status/1742883051066061010?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

LOL. Disaster Tech. What a place.

[Typhoon Tip]

It appears the American models are coalesced ( more than less..) overnight.  

Everything is on board and pretty well accounted for sounding-wise. This doesn't mean there won't be instra wave tussling in the trough dynamics as this open wave system cuts through, but by and large those "giga" changes won't really ( well ... "shouldn't" - famous last words!) realize much difference to the end results. 

Looks like a lower ratio snow S of HFD -NW RI to Boston and the N. Shore, with rising ratios pretty quickly in the interior.  Some rain for a time in that region, prior to subtle wind backing with deepening low, cannot be ruled out. The region from BDL CT to BED MA could be a jack pot where crossing up QPF with higher ratio/colder profile.

Both the 12km and 32km NAM are interesting at a closer analysis of their cinema of the event. After an initial WAA burst of snow there is a relaxation for 6 or so hours ...then Sunday between 12z and 18z there's coherent reinvigoration over the N-W arc of the circulation, along with both a hesitation in the sfc low, and 4 or so additional MB deepening.  This appears to coincided with the arrival of the left exit region (provided by 2ndary jet maxim) passing over the vortex and most likely causing an excitation of the ongoing event during that window...   I wonder if there is a brief pulse of wind concern coming into the coastal zones, where at that time there may be sticky snow loading and gusts to 40mph/associated CCB genesis upon exit. 

The global models may or may not illustrate that kind of discrete look as above, but the genera of the synopsis/blend/consensus are not exactly refuting what those higher resolution meso models are doing. I'm curious if the RGEM is doing something similar Sunday morning.

[Prismshine Productions]

If the Kuchera verified... Holy smokes

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[moneypitmike]

Any sign of the pope?  He may be hearing confessions from torch tiger.

[MaineJayhawk]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Any sign of the pope?  He may be hearing confessions from torch tiger.

Last sighting he was trolling another subforum that was much iffier for snow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Last sighting he was trolling another subforum that was much iffier for snow

Very predictable….like a church scandal. 

[DJln491]

I see the nam still runs using dial up internet on an Atari 400.  I'll check back at noon.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Any sign of the pope?  He may be hearing confessions from torch tiger.

Him and Qsmegma will be back for the massive screamer next week and then the next one on the weekend. 

[subdude]

wow, great reading itt. Finally the time has come for our first significant snow. Looks like there's confidence that many locations will get close to if not double digit totals. Not a bad start to a somewhat dismal season. Hopefully this opens the gates to a 100" season for all. lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Him and Qsmegma will be back for the massive screamer next week and then the next one on the weekend. 

Smegma?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Smegma?

The dude that’s 5 posted. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The dude that’s 5 posted. 

No I know. The take on his SN is lol. 

[CoastalWx]

LOL Smegma.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

LOL Smegma.

It fits too lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

“Children in mens bodies”…we will be punished for being clowns. 

[Henry's Weather]

12z NAM may be slightly less amped. S/W slightly weaker and downstream ridge slightly weaker. May turn out to be a good thing for sensible weather south of Concord, NH

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

12z NAM may be slightly less amped. S/W slightly weaker and downstream ridge slightly weaker. May turn out to be a good thing for sensible weather south of Concord, NH

Margusity !

[Henry's Weather]

Notice that the trailing piece of energy is less far behind. May mean that the lull we saw in past guidance will be less represented here due to earlier interaction?

[Henry's Weather]

Shortwaves are more distinct

[Henry's Weather]

Heights out ahead are slightly depressed, should be slightly less tucked

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let’s see if nam can give us something freaky today .  Not Saying  it will at 12z  , it’s very early in the run but has potential .  part of nams value is in entertaining 

[Henry's Weather]

Noticeable positive trend in western ridge magnitude trailing the shortwaves, supporting greater s/w interaction