Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[dendrite]

Interesting trends overnight. 

[Damage In Tolland]

How did this turn into another rainstorm? Did anyone honestly see this coming? 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How did this turn into another rainstorm? Did anyone honestly see this coming? 

Enjoy the snow. 

[SnoSki14]

Pretty bad flooding situation may unfold for those that see snow. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How did this turn into another rainstorm? Did anyone honestly see this coming? 

I doubt it’s done adjusting. Too many players make it subject to significant changes , and this could continue for a while due to the delicate nature of the trailing wave interaction among other things, eps still looks good for you lol

[Kitz Craver]

How amped are we? HFD mixing?

[UnitedWx]

Nice little dusting up this way to set the stage for Sunday

[dendrite]

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

I dunno, if I were you I’d be side eying this GFS run

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How did this turn into another rainstorm? Did anyone honestly see this coming? 

50 50 low got weaker 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said:

"Congrats Dendrite" by the time it's all said and done

 

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Interesting trends overnight. 

[UnitedWx]

16 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I dunno, if I were you I’d be side eying this GFS run

Looks pretty good to me for most all of SNE and more...

[ROOSTA]

Appears knowledge of micro-climate of SNE, climatology re:, structure of how the storm evolves, temp profile, intensity but most importantly the track will determine how much and what type of precipitation will fall. Thinking CF will be a given. To early to determine jacks.

Guess I just encapsulated the purpose of the forum. Everyone should keep expectations in check. No control over the event so emotional expression should be kept at a minimum. IMBY- nobody gives a rats arse. 
 

[George001]

Holy shit, over the past couple of days the low moved a good 100+ miles north on the models!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Reggie was a region wide very good hit 

gfs was a crush job 

Kevin we urge you to call the wx weenie hotline we will be coming by to support you for this am model runs 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said:

"Congrats Dendrite" by the time it's all said and done

Always. 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Holy shit, over the past couple of days the low moved a good 100+ miles north on the models!

You mean a day 4-6 forecast moved the storm center 100 miles? 

[dryslot]

38 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Jeff was being very patient.

Give me a few more tics north before the last minute messenger shuffle, Could be a fun ride next 10 days or so.

[Chrisrotary12]

Reasonable first map. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Give me a few more tics north before the last minute messenger shuffle, Could be a fun ride next 10 days or so.

Up there could be fun this whole stretch.  Down here, I think whatever coverage we get this weekend will wash away with the next system.

[wxsniss]

Wow

Can we get an EPS/GFS blend…

Glancing at surface first, I half expected to see that the lead vort had disappeared and this was entirely driven by trailing vort

Now even more convinced we’re seeing highly impactful wobbles rather than clear trends

[moneypitmike]

Here's the GFS clown.  It shows Kevin all his rain very clearly.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Here's the GFS clown.  It shows Kevin all his rain very clearly.

With these north and warmer trends. Maybe we can get that paster inland instead of powder . Or maybe it continued north and its rain. I honestly am worried about at least some liquid being possible . 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Here's the GFS clown.  It shows Kevin all his rain very clearly.

Lol, yeah, looks like lots of rain there 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With these north and warmer trends. Maybe we can get that paster inland instead of powder . Or maybe it continued north and its rain. I honestly am worried about at least some liquid being possible . 

Keep using the NAM it will serve you well in your reverse Pysch 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Kevin and ginx area is still in a solid spot .. We cant take anymore north ticks for most of interior CT, CT shore is most likely cooked, my area is cooked next with one more tick.. Problem is GFS is the coldest and snowiest now for CT, and its been playing catch up .. Let's hope for a reverse trend at 12z .. 

[WxWatcher007]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

Days and days of panic? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

00z eps look great here 

[SouthCoastMA]

6z euro cooled off a tad?

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kevin and ginx area is still in a solid spot .. We cant take anymore north ticks for most of interior CT, CT shore is most likely cooked, my area is cooked next with one more tick.. Problem is GFS is the coldest and snowiest now for CT, and its been playing catch up .. Let's hope for a reverse trend at 12z .. 

Not seeing your panic at your spot. Ct shore always in peril with East wind but column is pretty damn cold.