Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Idk how u live in NYC, regardless of snow. 

I wonder that myself all the time 

[RDRY]

Can't feel confident until the NAVGEM, NOGAPS and CRAS are on board.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is actually steadily trending towards the kicker S/W phasing with the trough and creating its own axis of PVA. this would have pretty big implications for you guys and even down here into LI/LHV/NNJ

PVA….Potential Vorticity?  So if this is a legit trend, and that indeed happens, this would juice this thing up even further..correct.  Due to the increase in vorticity and energy? Or am I out of my mind lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

Uncle looks to be staying sober this evening. A solid warning event for many but not the higher end type solutions. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

PVA….Potential Vorticity?  So if this is a legit trend, and that indeed happens, this would juice this thing up even further..correct.  Due to the increase in vorticity and energy? Or am I out of my mind lol. 

positive vorticity advection. basically moving vorticity from one place to the other. that kind of signature would encourage a deform band to form. just not sure if it's a legit trend or nonsense. FWIW, the CMC has also been trending in that direction

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Ukie jackpots us…can’t hate that look. Lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ukie jackpots us…can’t hate that look. Lol. 

It’s doing some funky things with the warm layers so sema looks worse than it should but it definitely improved from 12z. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

positive vorticity advection. basically moving vorticity from one place to the other. that kind of signature would encourage a deform band to form. just not sure if it's a legit trend or nonsense. FWIW, the CMC has also been trending in that direction

Thank you for the explanation, appreciate it. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s doing some funky things with the warm layers so sema looks worse than it should but it definitely improved from 12z. 

Ya I saw that out there.  Solid warning snows for a good chunk of the area though.  

[The 4 Seasons]

20 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Can't feel confident until the NAVGEM, NOGAPS and CRAS are on board.

dont forget the JMA, KMA, Icon, ARPGEGELGO, IBM and the RPM...RIP RPM

[Patrick-02540]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ukie jackpots us…can’t hate that look. Lol. 

Yup...from Woodbury to Southington.  Lol. 

[The 4 Seasons]

UKMET is solid warning snows for nearly all of CT, thermals be damned on that model. low 990s BM track 925s and 850s are plenty cold. 

[brooklynwx99]

EPS trend over the last two model cycles. same story as the GEFS with the trailing wave. definitely ups the CCB potential IMO

[WxWatcher007]

(Sigh)

Impossible to lock these in. 

[weathafella]

This is not.a happy look for our friends in CT.

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Sorry I should have actually tried to say something substantive. Euro looked like a significant step back to me, particularly for CT. Warmer and more strung out verbatim, though I don’t think it’s a reason to panic I would have liked to see the amped/organized trend continue. 

[wxsniss]

Shifted east with lead wave compared to 12z... the mitigating factor mentioned earlier if trailing wave interacts later

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is not.a happy look for our friends in CT.

 

 

Oof, that's rough. Hopefully it's a blip but can't feel too good given that we're only 72 hours away from go time.

[weathafella]

The good news is we have a warning event likely for a large part of the region.   But little nuanced features and how far north this carries TBD.  Euro actually gave parts of NNE some love and will mid level magic be underestimated everywhere?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Oof, that's rough. Hopefully it's a blip but can't feel too good given that we're only 72 hours away from go time.

It’s the first time since 00z on the 1st when this was a southern slider to have that kind of depiction. Maybe an outlier but we’ll see. More annoying than concerning given the general trend the last 24 hours toward a widespread warning level event. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Not really concerned with details given the time lead and everything else but thats a nice giant middle finger to CT

Almost worse than 18Z...well come around tomorrow to more realistic soln, thermals are a concern though closer to the coast esp given the SST

[wxsniss]

Definite step back from 12z Euro... interaction with trailing energy occurred too late

But, we at least appear to be stabilizing the floor of a solid region-wide warning event, which appears on all guidance.

The double-digit ceiling is critically dependent on that infusion of trailing wave, and on this 0z Euro the lead wave scoots east / that interaction is delayed. This will fluctuate and definitely still on the table.

Ironic that GFS is now the most robust (at least for SNE).

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wonder if that sucker hole is due to energy translating east to the lead wave late in the game...

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wonder if that sucker hole is due to energy translating east to the lead wave late in the game...

Maybe? Problem is only the lobster in the GOM reap the benefits. It’s good for eastern SNE but not like earlier. 

Anyway, probably parsing too much on my end. This is the time where I’m ready to be done tracking and see production. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe? Problem is only the lobster in the GOM reap the benefits. It’s good for eastern SNE but not like earlier. 

Anyway, probably parsing too much on my end. This is the time where I’m ready to be done tracking and see production. 

I only expect 4-8", anyway....the double-digits are ceiling-fantasy.

[weathafella]

My wife (who is in Chicago caring for her mom for the past several weeks) asked how much snow is Boston getting Sunday?  My answer is anywhere from 4-10 inches and probably somewhere in the middle of that range.  Meaning snowblower gets used.

[wxsniss]

This run also a tick warmer at 925 especially east...

Agree 4-10" is a safe range this far ahead for much of eSNE.

Still think there is a shot at >10" somewhere 128-495 or interior southeast depending on timing of interaction. But we need to see more support for that tomorrow, otherwise today's most bullish runs were a flash in the pan.

[wxsniss]

Maybe the biggest change on this 0z vs. 12z Euro run is lead wave seems to move faster... vortmax is ~100-150 miles further east by 0z Sunday. 

And so the surface low is east. For example, 18z Sunday, ~50 miles east instead of over Nantucket.

I don't think we have enough to call this a definitive trend vs. impactful wobbles.

[kazimirkai]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is not.a happy look for our friends in CT.

 

 

You know the 12z had a very similar looking feature in southern upstate New York. It seems like both this dry slot along with the heaviest stuff near E Mass shifted about 80 miles eastward while the western extent of snow remained largely the same. Interesting