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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

OK.  That is good info!

 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This was the feedback I was looking for and hope to recall in future 

There is a reason why there is so much concern about convection ruining phasing dynamics in some potential high end bombs off the coast. Threading the needle isn't easy. This setup seems "messy" enough that boring background dynamics should win the day and get this thing up the coast without convective issues.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s putting all that emphasis on the lead short wave, which it holds the identity of longer… It has virtually no interaction with the second wave

Was a violent but shorter pounding it seemed . Was over by 1pm into E mass

18z-0z panel had nada precip except .1 over Eastern half Essex county 

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Fun to see the 3 operational models all have different ideas on how to handle that trailing vort interaction.

 

First bit of sampling out west and that's become an increasingly interesting feature. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The CMC doesn’t really put much emphasis on the trailing wave though.  Everything else seems to incorporate that trailing wave.  CMC behind some on this evolution?  

The front running wave is much stronger on the GGEM so it never really allows the trailer to crash the party. It keeps the downstream ridging in front of the trailer to a min. But when the front runner is that potent, you still get a big solution. 

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Was a violent but shorter pounding it seemed . Was over by 1pm into E mass

18z-0z panel had nada precip except .1 over Eastern half Essex county 

Our current weather paradigm over the past decade says, always plan on the system lifting out faster than modeled.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I don’t know… With a growing consensus heading another direction vs the CMC’s track record … that’s a bit of a buyer’s beware solution

Agree. The good news is though, there seems to be multiple ways we can get it “done”, which is a complete reversal of the past couple winters. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The front running wave is much stronger on the GGEM so it never really allows the trailer to crash the party. It keeps the downstream ridging in front of the trailer to a min. But when the front runner is that potent, you still get a big solution. 

Thanks Will, but I understood that part about the leading shortwave being strong, my point was that the CMC isn’t incorporating that trailing wave as the other varsity models seem to be, and perhaps it’s a flawed solution due to that fact, and perhaps not prudent to take it to seriously because of that?  

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