Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, weathafella said:

lol….my all time melt 

You probably would have lost it near the onset of 2/6/78 lol

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You probably would have lost it near the onset of 2/6/78 lol

Did you ever hear Harvey's story?  Similar.  He's telling it and noting a strong east wind pushed BOS up to 35 and he's telling the story thinking "don't do this to me!".   Yup.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Did you ever hear Harvey's story?  Similar.  He's telling it and noting a strong east wind pushed BOS up to 35 and he's telling the story thinking "don't do this to me!".   Yup.  

Yes...that is what I was recalling ...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hmmm gfs lookin weaker early at 18z Saturday . If this run pulls  a warning event I’d be impressed (trailing vort magic maybe )

[Boston Bulldog]

Closed surface contours making landfall on the Florida Big Bend. Obviously lowest pressures jump north in the next frame, but the GFS seems to be really struggling with the convection down south. 

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I didn’t think it was settled that it wasn’t gonna snow in NYC but I imagine the BL is cooked? I’d certainly keep watching 

He’s trying hard for the reverse psychology. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Boston Bulldog said:

Closed surface contours making landfall on the Florida Big Bend. Obviously lowest pressures jump north in the next frame, but the GFS seems to be really struggling with the convection down south. 

I was thinking  it may  chase convection off NC this run but it doesn’t seem to 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hmmm gfs lookin weaker early at 18z Saturday . If this run pulls  a warning event I’d be impressed (trailing vort magic maybe )

Front runner is weak sauce but that trailer is still barreling in on its heels. This run will prob still be good, tho maybe not quite as good as 18z. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hmmm gfs lookin weaker early at 18z Saturday 

6z Sunday has 1004 just off Delmara.  Snowing into NNE.  Here she comes-12z heavies up to the pike and moderate to dendrite.

[weathafella]

15z with 996 about 100 south of ack

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was thinking  it may  chase convection off NC this run but it doesn’t seem to 

That's a wild card to watch right up through go time.

[weathafella]

988 east of ack 21z Sunday.

[weathafella]

Seems more pedestrian bs expect texted with layout but certainly a warning even for many.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, weathafella said:

988 east of ack 21z Sunday.

Even if it's not a major, that's an all day snower for many.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Moderate snowfall for many. Southern Plymouth county and the cape get it good 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice hit. Hr 90 looks dope. Regardless of totals, another nod to the trailing wave idea. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's a wild card to watch right up through go time.

It recovered nicely , trailing wave helped this from escaping but that was looking close early sat pm, people smarter then me with Synoptics can interpret wether that was lookin the same early , maybe good barcolinity close to Delmarva favors the low not being prone to that (if that is Even something worth watching or gfs Shenanigans)

[Boston Bulldog]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's a wild card to watch right up through go time.

Considering the first wave is fizzling out and the secondary wave is what provides the primary forcing, I wouldn't be too concerned about that occurring. Not like there is a deep cyclonic center that is getting shunted east by the convection, the synoptic sweet spot downstream of the second wave will win out at the surface in this look even if the convection does some wonky things early in the evolution.

[Typhoon Tip]

These differences look largely like noise to me - there could still be a future bigger move or modulation in the system or not, but this is minutia between the 18 Z and 0Z

[kazimirkai]

Interesting the gfs is stronger at 18z Sunday though. Idk how to interpret what that means for the system. Did the trailing area of low pressure link up better in this run?

[weathafella]

CMC runs it over the elbow.

[dryslot]

CMC is a big hit, To bad its not very good.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Considering the first wave is fizzling out and the secondary wave is what provides the primary forcing, I wouldn't be too concerned about that occurring. Not like there is a deep cyclonic center that is getting shunted east by the convection, the synoptic sweet spot downstream of the second wave will win out at the surface in this look even if the convection does some wonky things early in the evolution.

OK.  That is good info!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Considering the first wave is fizzling out and the secondary wave is what provides the primary forcing, I wouldn't be too concerned about that occurring. Not like there is a deep cyclonic center that is getting shunted east by the convection, the synoptic sweet spot downstream of the second wave will win out at the surface in this look even if the convection does some wonky things early in the evolution.

This was the feedback I was looking for and hope to recall in future 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It recovered nicely but that was looking close early sat pm, people smarter then me with Synoptics can interpret wether that was lookin the same early , maybe good barcolinity close to Delmarva favors the low not being prone to that 

The vort being very weak and sort of paralleling the coastline rather than moving out to sea is helpful. It doesn’t sweep the baroclinic zone well out to sea. 

Having the trailing shortwave play a role on almost every run now is good for setting a higher floor on this event. I think a total or near-total skunk job is becoming pretty unlikely. The key is now going to be if we realize the higher potential if we can get those two shortwaves optimal. 

[weathafella]

CMC is a huge qpf bomb

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

CMC is a huge qpf bomb

It’s a mauling here. Would love to see the Euro a little more amped at 00z.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CMC runs it over the elbow.

It’s putting all that emphasis on the lead short wave, which it holds the identity of longer… It has virtually no interaction with the second wave

[George001]

The gfs went south a bit, but the Canadian went even more north. Low is also deepening to the high 980s

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CMC is a huge qpf bomb

This may be a big night of runs....I don't trust the GFS with east coast cyclogenesis and convective intricacies....