Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That warmth seems a model bias of there’s.  It’s pretty cold above with good rates by 12z.

Well I said initially. I buy it. Once the good stuff comes in it wetbulbs to 32 even at PYM. Recall your melt in the Jan 2011 bliz prior to the heavy heavies lol.

This is why I said I want the meat of this storm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will tug all the way to WOR. A long stroke.

Yea the next frame would look sweet. A little warmish though at 84 along the south coast but whatever. Next run will be a whiff or deform snows to PF. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea the next frame would look sweet. A little warmish though at 84 along the south coast but whatever. Next run will be a whiff or deform snows to PF. 

Basically 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea the next frame would look sweet. A little warmish though at 84 along the south coast but whatever. Next run will be a whiff or deform snows to PF. 

yeah, Namd for sure here....just getting its act together and it already had us pushing 7 inches.....still so much time to go at this point, is it too much to ask to have this thing start to bomb out 6 hrs earlier?

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh if only that ran out to 96 hrs. I mean just for shits and giggles like … that low probably bombs when that 2nd burst of mid level mechanics unzips over top 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM was prob gonna go apeshit the next frame with that potent vort trying to crash the party. 
 

That gonna be a feature to watch…if there’s going to be a decent swath of double digits, that trailer vort is likely the key. We’ve seen several model runs do it already. But as Tip and others mentioned, it’s still delicate…if the trailer vort doesn’t quite get it done or the timing is slightly off then it won’t work and you’re left with a good, but not major event. 

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I said initially. I buy it. Once the good stuff comes in it wetbulbs to 32 even at PYM. Recall your melt in the Jan 2011 bliz prior to the heavy heavies lol.

This is why I said I want the meat of this storm.

lol….my all time melt 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

yeah, Namd for sure here....just getting its act together and it already had us pushing 7 inches.....still so much time to go at this point, is it too much to ask to have this thing start to bomb out 6 hrs earlier?

I’ve been asking the past 13yrs and have repeatedly come up short…it’s your turn. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM was prob gonna go apeshit the next frame with that potent vort trying to crash the party. 
 

That gonna be a feature to watch…if there’s going to be a decent swath of double digits, that trailer vort is likely the key. We’ve seen several model runs do it already. But as Tip and others mentioned, it’s still delicate…if the trailer vort doesn’t quite get it done or the timing is slightly off then it won’t work and you’re left with a good, but not major event. 

Check out H7. Would be a nice weenie band as the H7 warm front keeps arcing over and extending itself just south. 

[mattm4242]

Being right on the water in Gloucester doesn’t feel like the best spot for this lol.

Oh well.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Check out H7. Would be a nice weenie band as the H7 warm front keeps arcing over and extending itself just south. 

Yeah at 84h you basically have a bent back WF in the midlevels quasi-stalled near the south coast….inject that with the trailing vort and start rapidly deepening the ML center and ohhh boy….that’s how major positive busts are born. 
 

Check out 00z reggie too…kind of similar though not quite as perfect with the trailing vort. 

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM was prob gonna go apeshit the next frame with that potent vort trying to crash the party. 
 

That gonna be a feature to watch…if there’s going to be a decent swath of double digits, that trailer vort is likely the key. We’ve seen several model runs do it already. But as Tip and others mentioned, it’s still delicate…if the trailer vort doesn’t quite get it done or the timing is slightly off then it won’t work and you’re left with a good, but not major event. 

Yeah pieces look perfectly positioned on that 84h NAM for injection of the trailing vort and capture for a big hit eSNE.

That scenario is shown on most global guidance at this point. The main mitigating factor on current guidance is if it happens too late... 6z GFS is a good example where the trailing energy arrives too late and the system bombs out too far east

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said:

Go troll somewhere else Torch Tiger!!!

drunk

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah pieces look perfectly positioned on that 84h NAM for injection of the trailing vort and capture for a big hit eSNE.

That scenario is shown on most global guidance at this point. The main mitigating factor on current guidance is if it happens too late... 6z GFS is a good example where the trailing energy arrives too late and the system bombs out too far east

If we can get through another 24h of model guidance trending toward that type of interaction, then it’s time to start honking big. 
 

Still guarded at the moment because we’re in that awkward zone where things can rapidly still change but that window is closing quickly over the next couple cycles. 

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, mattm4242 said:

Being right on the water in Gloucester doesn’t feel like the best spot for this lol.

Oh well.

I’m feeling better on the water in Salem (versus Rockport), but I still think you guys pull around a six spot. 

[radarman]

Even final totals aside, the idea of waves and waves of mid-level induced bursts with light weenie snows in between is very appealing right now.  Something to be embraced after the stretch we've had. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, radarman said:

Even final totals aside, the idea of waves and waves of mid-level induced bursts with light weenie snows in between is very appealing right now.  Something to be embraced after the stretch we've had. 

Yup. I’m good with a stretched out mod event. Anything higher/more impactful is a bonus. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we can get through another 24h of model guidance trending toward that type of interaction, then it’s time to start honking big. 
 

Still guarded at the moment because we’re in that awkward zone where things can rapidly still change but that window is closing quickly over the next couple cycles. 

I want it recorded that these changes became apparent upon the relay into the denser/physically realized sounding grid. 

My question on that was over assimilation, being as advanced as it is, still has trouble in these longitudinal high-speed flow types… Separate conversation just sayin’

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM was prob gonna go apeshit the next frame with that potent vort trying to crash the party. 
 

That gonna be a feature to watch…if there’s going to be a decent swath of double digits, that trailer vort is likely the key. We’ve seen several model runs do it already. But as Tip and others mentioned, it’s still delicate…if the trailer vort doesn’t quite get it done or the timing is slightly off then it won’t work and you’re left with a good, but not major event. 

I’m ok with a good event…I’m not expecting a major hit here. 4-8” is very good, and that seems to be where all the modeling has us. A few of the big runs had 9, 10 or 12, but not expecting those to verify. The capture and tugs don’t usually work out for us here, so I’ll sell that for now. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I want it recorded that these changes became apparent upon the relay into the denser/physically realized sounding grid. 

My question on that was over assimilation, being as advanced as it is, still has trouble in these longitudinal high-speed flow types… Separate conversation just sayin’

Yeah it was mostly today when our main shortwave starting coming onshore. It’s a good sign that 00z has only strengthened that type of solution…albeit with the caveat that we’re still on the JV models for a 3.5 day threat. I’ll be more moved by NAM and RGEM solutions in another 36h. 

[mreaves]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I’m a pessimistic as they come, but I think the warmth issue is being overplayed. Unless you are on or within 5 miles of a beach, I think it’ll be fine.

No! Not you!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

One thing we seem to be gaining consensus on, is that the chance of a complete rug pull is moving off the table.  Charlie Brown is at least going to get his foot on the ball.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

One thing we seem to be gaining consensus on, is that the chance of a complete rug pull is moving off the table.  Charlie Brown is at least going to get his foot on the ball.

Hopefully not Chad Ryland type contact though 

[ORH_wxman]

ICON sort of escaped east before capture but an improvement over 18z. Pretty solid low end warning event for most of SNE. Really close to getting eastern areas with several more inches. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was mostly today when our main shortwave starting coming onshore. It’s a good sign that 00z has only strengthened that type of solution…albeit with the caveat that we’re still on the JV models for a 3.5 day threat. I’ll be more moved by NAM and RGEM solutions in another 36h. 

I think the 18Z was a beginning of capitulation … probably related to sampling improvement. Fwiw

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON sort of escaped east before capture but an improvement over 18z. Pretty solid low end warning event for most of SNE. Really close to getting eastern areas with several more inches. 

Nothing wrong with solid low end warning event. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

One thing we seem to be gaining consensus on, is that the chance of a complete rug pull is moving off the table.  Charlie Brown is at least going to get his foot on the ball.

Reminds me , when the announcer says this relief pitcher has not given up a home run in 3 months . But yea , agreed 

[MJO812]

Congrats guys

Went from a few inches down here to rain. Still waiting for an inch of snow. Will be near 700 days soon.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats guys

Went from a few inches down here to rain. Still waiting for an inch of snow. Will be near 700 days soon.

You may need to wait a bit but it should be coming for you NYC peeps too in the next few weeks.   I know a guy who is a Wilmington VT police officer, should I ask him if they are hiring?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats guys

Went from a few inches down here to rain. Still waiting for an inch of snow. Will be near 700 days soon.

I didn’t think it was settled that it wasn’t gonna snow in NYC but I imagine the BL is cooked? I’d certainly keep watching