Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Prismshine Productions]

Need some decent rates and it will work. 
 
ICON looks a little SE and weaker at 18z. 

Honestly it looked like it moved out quicker that run

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[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Honestly it looked like it moved out quicker that run

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It deserves 30 seconds of analyzing and that's it from me. 

[dryslot]

Wow, That long huh.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Well there we go.

Edit: Now I see that's for Friday, which is probably too late to help with this storm, but will help the 10th.

Just using 'pragmatic imagination' here:   the system for the 10th is higher risk for several meteorological impact reasons - perhaps they don't see the need to expend resources for a pedestrian risk in the foreground

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah...that backside trend to extend the pp west with filling in QPF is perhaps a nod to that capture business.  I'd pay attention that trend if the ICON is your goto

...can't imagine a mind or scenario where that's actually the case but sufficed it is to say -

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe 36-48 hours of snow 

[Typhoon Tip]

know what would would happen... the snow would end around 22z on that ICON solution but then as it gets dark and the cooling BL kicks in we'll start squeezing out teeny flake street lamp snow. And that'll extend up in the column to the inevitable inversion that's left behind ... so it'll last into the evening

mood

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

know what would would happen... the snow would end around 22z on that ICON solution but then as it gets dark and the cooling BL kicks in we'll start squeezing out teeny flake street lamp snow. And that'll extend up in the column to the inevitable inversion that's left behind ...

mood

You spent >30 seconds on the icon didn’t you?

[weathafella]

Gfs coming around nicely 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

Gfs coming around nicely 

We prolong

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We prolong

Tell the guys 

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We prolong

Latest trend.

[dryslot]

The trailing S/W catches up to the lead vort and slows this down east of the cape.

[wxsniss]

18z GFS definite step towards Euro

That infusion of trailing shortwave gets us to double digits in eSNE

[CoastalWx]

Pretty cold too. rates ftw.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Queen’s be queenin,

Jack’s be jackin,

Pope’s not smilin….

[CoastalWx]

That thing nukes quick too.

[weathafella]

Great all day snowstorm.  Snowblow around 8pm.

[wxsniss]

925mb -4 to -5C much of pike region / eastern SNE throughout event

[WxWatcher007]

We take. We wait for more amp at 00z.

[ariof]

Congrats Yawgoo Valley on the 18Z.

[Prismshine Productions]

Few more ticks and even southern VT in the valley will rake

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[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We take. We wait for more amp at 00z.

Yeah let's pump this baby up

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That thing nukes quick too.

I think this is the initial step toward capitulation to the Euro.

It appears it's capturing more.   Tell you what, if that gets more proficient on the next run we got an NJ model bomb      ( not winking at you per se -)

[wxsniss]

Energy is entering CA 18z-0z tonight, so this 18z GFS (and definite step towards Euro with more robust initial wave and capture by trailing wave) is a very promising trend to start the evening

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ariof said:

Congrats Yawgoo Valley on the 18Z.

I learned to ski there at age 10. Taught my kids there as well. Perfect for the wee lot.

[SouthCoastMA]

what will happen is that this will trend to an elongated boob low ramming into Tolland CT, with its saggy counterpart scooting east of Nantucket. 

[ineedsnow]

theres the GFS cave we were looking for

[Greg]

13 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Go out to hour 102 and hit 24 hour total. It looks better.

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That thing nukes quick too.

the kicker actually phases into the main vort at the end and lets the CCB blossom