Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These are the things I ponder in my mind lol. The plus factors are a cold 925-850. Good lift at times into DGZ.  Negative are SSTs around 43ish. 

It makes it hard because the beaches could struggle for an inch, 3 miles away is plastered, and 8 miles away is 9" of paste. I've seen it many times. If one variable is off, it changes drastically. Logan is a bitch to call.

Probably going to come down to rates and wet bulb. While temperatures don't look to climb crazy high Saturday (mid 30's...maybe 37 or 38) with the thickening cloud cover, temperatures aren't going to drop much after sunset. But yeah...certainly a situation where a few miles makes a huge difference. You see that often times along the CT shoreline as well.  

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The initial S/W is right on the coast so I think between RAOBs and satellite...probably pretty good there. The others are more tomorrow and tomorrow night. There is ALOT of shit flying around. Even the Nctrl US had a big change from 00z with a small s/w. 

The sensitivity is highest tonight around CA and NV, so those raobs will be important. 

[SouthCoastMA]

20 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

6-10 down here?

1-4" if euro is right

the 0z and 6z runs has better positioning for us

[mahk_webstah]

44 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ugly pattern on the EPS as you once again connect the SE ridge and the block when a massive trough out west.  Luckily @brooklynwx99 says trough out west is transient.

No changes.

[wxsniss]

Growing confidence from EPS/Euro we see double digits somewhere in SNE, finally get this monkey off our back...

Pike vs. NE MA vs. NH-MA border vs. SE MA jack tbd, but outside 128 belt Foxboro to Fitchburg looks great atm

Opening bid from NWS... seems they are heavily factoring marine influence... the low-res Euro soundings are plenty cold 925 on up, so probably see that gradient closer to coast:  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

1-4" if euro is right

the 0z and 6z runs has better positioning for us

I’d imagine he’d do better than 4 in carver if the euro played out, just my opinion. You are a tougher call 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That tightened up quicker than Kevin's pants during bear week at P-Town.

See ya there!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These are the things I ponder in my mind lol. The plus factors are a cold 925-850. Good lift at times into DGZ.  Negative are SSTs around 43ish. 

It makes it hard because the beaches could struggle for an inch, 3 miles away is plastered, and 8 miles away is 9" of paste. I've seen it many times. If one variable is off, it changes drastically. Logan is a bitch to call.

Yeah, it happens fairly often and I think this storm will also be a good candidate. Hell I remember an event when I worked in duxbury where the high school close to the water got nothing but the otherwise of town got several inches. A couple miles away from the water could go from slop to fir flattener 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The sensitivity is highest tonight around CA and NV, so those raobs will be important. 

Will they be launching more balloons in that area? That is sparse.  

[CoastalWx]

BOX heavily weighing marine influence there. Although not sure Cape Ann beaches are getting more than Brockton.

[SouthCoastMA]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, it happens fairly often and I think this storm will also be a good candidate. Hell I remember an event when I worked in duxbury where the high school close to the water got nothing but the otherwise of town got several inches. A couple miles away from the water could go from slop to fir flattener 

1 here, maybe 4 or 5 there.

I saw this a bunch last year, temps 33-35 and moderate rates barely accumulating an inch despite solid qpf. the further se solutions had the winds more NE 

you're still in a decent spot but let's hope it doesn't tuck anymore before it moves eastward 

 

[Boston Bulldog]

19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So um is this sampled now 

Yesterday some folks / Mets thought it would bounce around till 0z ,  when it was fully sampled or do we see enough of a model consensus to increase confidence decently 

 

(worked all am and have been sleeping off and on ) 

“Pieces are on the board” now so to speak, but one or two runs with enhanced data doesn’t mean a solution is suddenly locked in. Sampling isn’t a silver bullet by any means, just better information. Need wait and see how the models trend with all of this new data being assimilated.
 

I threw out 0z tonight as being a rough time when the repercussions from this new information would become evident over a few model cycles. We have seen more run to run continuity today so far 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

1 here, maybe 4 or 5 there.

I saw this a bunch last year, temps 33-35 and moderate rates barely accumulating an inch despite solid qpf. the further se solutions had the winds more NE 

 

We had terrible air masses last year though. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We had terrible air masses last year though. 

I think inland will do fine verbatim..but speaking more for the coast. water temps still 43-45

[Greg]

Marine influence too strong on that take from Boston but depending on the trajectory of wind the North Shore would do only slightly better in that set-up.

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Growing confidence from EPS/Euro we see double digits somewhere in SNE, finally get this monkey off our back...

Pike vs. NE MA vs. NH-MA border vs. SE MA jack tbd, but outside 128 belt Foxboro to Fitchburg looks great atm

Opening bid from NWS... seems they are heavily factoring marine influence... the low-res Euro soundings are plenty cold 925 on up, so probably see that gradient closer to coast:  

Is this depiction telling us that the models do not weigh marine influence very accurately?

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We had terrible air masses last year though. 

Good point.  For the first time we have an opportunity to have juice into a cold column.  

[NorEastermass128]

BOX shows the coast no love. 

[Ericjcrash]

15 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Growing confidence from EPS/Euro we see double digits somewhere in SNE, finally get this monkey off our back...

Pike vs. NE MA vs. NH-MA border vs. SE MA jack tbd, but outside 128 belt Foxboro to Fitchburg looks great atm

Opening bid from NWS... seems they are heavily factoring marine influence... the low-res Euro soundings are plenty cold 925 on up, so probably see that gradient closer to coast:  

Bizzare map, western mass and CT you get nothing! Shocked they put this out so far in advance.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I think inland will do fine verbatim..but speaking more for the coast. water temps still 43-45

I think that's over played actually.  What are temps right above the deck up to the midlevels?  I mean with that reasoning we'd never get snow in December when ssts are often even warmer than that.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Will they be launching more balloons in that area? That is sparse.  

It's happening more often, but I don't know for sure where to find reliable information on plans. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I think inland will do fine verbatim..but speaking more for the coast. water temps still 43-45

I don’t know beach climo but we finally have a good high nosing so just inland should be ok.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Bizzare map, western mass and CT you get nothing! Shocked they put this out so far in advance.

I think the areas in western CT/MA that have nothing are outside of BOX forecast area.  Lower CT may be OKX while further north ALY?

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think that's over played actually.  What are temps right above the deck up to the midlevels?  I mean with that reasoning we'd never get snow in December when ssts are often even warmer than that.

Exactly! They play the marine influence card early here but with the track of the Main Surface Low offshore south of us and the Mid and upper levels fine, most of this would be snow with perhaps the exception of far Southshore cape and islands.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Growing confidence from EPS/Euro we see double digits somewhere in SNE, finally get this monkey off our back...

Pike vs. NE MA vs. NH-MA border vs. SE MA jack tbd, but outside 128 belt Foxboro to Fitchburg looks great atm

Opening bid from NWS... seems they are heavily factoring marine influence... the low-res Euro soundings are plenty cold 925 on up, so probably see that gradient closer to coast:  

This looks like they ripped a UK clown map from yesterday or something. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, weathafella said:

I think the areas in western CT/MA that have nothing are outside of BOX forecast area.  Lower CT may be OKX while further north ALY?

Maybe, but odd to have it taper down to nothing instead of a clean cut. Thought those maps were supposed to be within 48 hrs of onset anyway.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Ugly pattern on the EPS as you once again connect the SE ridge and the block when a massive trough out west.  Luckily @brooklynwx99 says trough out west is transient.

thanks for letting me know i live rent free in your head. hope you're having a good day

[brooklynwx99]

anyway, this is looking quite good for you guys

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I think the areas in western CT/MA that have nothing are outside of BOX forecast area.  Lower CT may be OKX while further north ALY?

yeah Berkshire and Litchfield are ALY and Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex, and New London are OKX

[OceanStWx]

Capital H hate going with a deterministic snowfall forecast at this range. We know it's going to change, we've shown we have low skill getting amounts right this far out, and we just don't have a lot of data to build that forecast with. I have to think this accidentally slipped out to the winter page. We aren't even required to have QPF this far out, and WPC doesn't even provide the probability information to produce the rest of the graphics on the winter page.