Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Are they looking for me? Have not been in there in a while.

Not specifically.  I think the mood is too dark.  There hasn't been a lot of posting.  I did tell the Woodford, Vermont group to keep an eye on this weekend.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Is tonight the first run with better sampling?

actually ... interpolation may begin to "sense" of that now.   But your right - the 00z is when it starts directly nosing over California

[weatherwiz]

With all this talk of sampling I feel like I'm at Costco's. 

[FXWX]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like the Euro's superior grid spacing may be tapping into the local baroclinic field.

The 925mb and 850 mb thermal gradients are rather packed from the mid Jersey coast up toward the Cape; that's an indication of the rather upright frontal structure extending sky were where where the pressure bends back NW. 

IF/when the wind max noses over that, the inflow (synoptic scale) that it induces below will then be forced to ascent in a very proficient manner - enhancing the rate of QPF generation being one result. But also, the enhanced UVM lowers the surface pressure more.

That's all likely why we are beneath 990 mb.  

I think you have it actually right... Like so many big qpf producers we have seen over the past several months, the potential for heavy rates is certainly enhanced given the setup; this time snow, not flooding rains!  While the banding signal looks good, this might be a situation where  the banding max zone is wider than we might normally expect?  Still time to tinker with trends, but goal posts are narrowing...

[dryslot]

Should be an interesting EPS run.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would get mid level magic up near Brian.

I think the mid level magic per Euro may get going more at the end when H7 closes off and you get some thermal packing at that level from near PWM to Brian.

I do think there is a decent CF signal near you, might be NW of you initially down to maybe near 495/90.  That weenie QPF max seems to line up near that feature. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

I think you have it actually right... Like so many big qpf producers we have seen over the past several months, the potential for heavy rates is certainly enhanced given the setup; this time snow, not flooding rains!  While the banding signal looks good, this might be a situation where  the banding max zone is wider than we might normally expect?  Still time to tinker with trends, but goal posts are narrowing...

I was thinking this myself. I was surfing around trough various locations on bufkit and I noticed what seemed to be a very uniform and large area of crosshair or near crosshair signatures. I think this idea also makes sense when you look at the temperature gradients in the horizontal and vertical...there would be a fairly wide frontogenesis band most likely oriented W-E so many would cash in. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think the mid level magic per Euro may get going more at the end when H7 closes off and you get some thermal packing at that level from near PWM to Brian.

I do think there is a decent CF signal near you, might be NW of you initially down to maybe near 495/90.  That weenie QPF max seems to line up near that feature. 

Yea...if you look at my first map, that is why being that enhanced 5-10" band in CT and on NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I was thinking this myself. I was surfing around trough various locations on bufkit and I noticed what seemed to be a very uniform and large area of crosshair or near crosshair signatures. I think this idea also makes sense when you look at the temperature gradients in the horizontal and vertical...there would be a fairly wide frontogenesis band most likely oriented W-E so many would cash in. 

I didn't even look at soundings yet...save that for Saturday.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think the mid level magic per Euro may get going more at the end when H7 closes off and you get some thermal packing at that level from near PWM to Brian.

I do think there is a decent CF signal near you, might be NW of you initially down to maybe near 495/90.  That weenie QPF max seems to line up near that feature. 

There's an initial big fronto band across SNE early Sunday from like predawn to early morning and then it starts to rotate and regenerate further NW as the day goes along.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't even look at soundings yet...save that for Saturday.

I like to start looking at soundings even 3-4 days out because sometimes they can help verify the validity of the model output. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I like to start looking at soundings even 3-4 days out because sometimes they can help verify the validity of the model output. 

...And as you do, careen the hand down from the belly button....slowly at first, then a more concerted move.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's an initial big fronto band across SNE early Sunday from like predawn to early morning and then it starts to rotate and regenerate further NW as the day goes along.

Looks like a big WAA thump from 850 LLJ that envelops us. And then yeah, kind of turns into a weenie band after 12z Sunday morning. 

 

I was just playing around at the different levels. Not quite the classic thermal packing and H7 back bent WF sig until Sunday morning or so. But, there is good speed convergence. 

[nutmegfriar]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

...And as you do, careen the hand down from the belly button....slowly at first, then a more concerted move.

Suddenly, the virgins have nose prints on their screens/phones.

[CoastalWx]

Must be some weenie members of the EPS because from hr 96-102 that's a good shift WNW.

[MJO812]

Uggh enjoy

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, nutmegfriar said:

Suddenly, the virgins have nose prints on their screens/phones.

From that visual of Paul...boy, times are tough

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Must be some weenie members of the EPS because from hr 96-102 that's a good shift WNW.

looking good

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not bad for the circus of rejects

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 hours ago, qg_omega said:

She gone, Pope FTW.  He was the only one showing 1/4 going the way of 1/7

 

18 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You disappeared for days. lol. This is a tired and cowardly shtick 

 

17 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

She going going gone. 00z should be interesting 

 

34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s 12+ for most of SNE and 18+ for Ray down to Foxboro 

Hello Pot, meet Tblizz. Tblizz, this is Pot. 

[qg_omega]

Ugly pattern on the EPS as you once again connect the SE ridge and the block when a massive trough out west.  Luckily @brooklynwx99 says trough out west is transient.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not bad for the circus of rejects

Its terrible...being called an imbecile just because the football players gave pope a wedgie on prom night.

[weatherwiz]

definitely still some spread, but wow. Can't hate this at all. some of those (more than some) would be a crushing 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Ugly pattern on the EPS as you once again connect the SE ridge and the block when a massive trough out west.  Luckily @brooklynwx99 says trough out west is transient.

You clicked the wrong thread to troll.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that really closed a lot of the spread on previous EPS runs....tightened up all those lows.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Must be some weenie members of the EPS because from hr 96-102 that's a good shift WNW.

Really hits EMASS hard on back end 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

definitely still some spread, but wow. Can't hate this at all. some of those (more than some) would be a crushing 

That tightened up quicker than Kevin's pants during bear week at P-Town.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ugly pattern on the EPS as you once again connect the SE ridge and the block when a massive trough out west.  Luckily @brooklynwx99 says trough out west is transient.

EPS isn't out yet that far lmao

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

looking good

 

That's a bit close for comfort for the coasties.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its terrible...being called an imbecile just because the football players gave pope a wedgie on prom night.

Yeah... I didn't understand the fury at you. I get some of us chuckleheads being on the receiving end, but... anyway, I hope the geese get buried