Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Ironically the actual pieces of shortwave energy looked a bit better at 0z, but more ridging on this run brought this further north... great run for NEMA

Yeah we nearly lost the lead wave on this run, but it was running NW of the previous runs, so it kept all the forcing near the coast and inland instead of getting swept seaward.

[ROOSTA]

Foreplay arousal, WOOD inbound.
She's more beautiful than initially thought. 

[dryslot]

Clown.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Moderate?

That’s 12+ for most of SNE and 18+ for Ray down to Foxboro 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

TFlizzy strikes again. Congrats EMA.

[mreaves]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Much better for NNE vs 0z

Which, in the end, is what we all want.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So this trailing S/W catching up and somewhat slowing this down some looks to be a real thing…it’s on all the 12z modeling to some degree. 

It's not physically impossible - if that's what you mean.  

But yeah, also being on more than one model (cross-guidance) lends confidence.   It's a delicate precision wave space interaction - impressive that we are getting that "agreement" ( however tacit notwithstanding) with such a fragile arrangment at D4 .. 4.5

[dryslot]

Kuchie was even better

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

TFlizzy strikes again. Congrats EMA.

This actually looks fairly uniform for once. 

[weatherwiz]

One thing to keep in mind too is any increase in QPF farther north does not necessarily reflect a north bump. Tip mentioned this yesterday, but jet dynamics/structure could result in getting precipitation (even if light) farther northwest. Obviously the overall track is going to be noteworthy when focusing on banding and where the strip of max totals may occur.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dryslot said:

Kuchie was even better

Yeah, some places will be powder for most. Looks to start wet here and dry out as we move along.

[Bryan63]

I made the mistake of telling my 4 yr old we might get a good amount of snow this weekend, kid is so excited because he's never seen a ton, only had 1 storm in Raleigh that gave us about 3-4" that was gone by lunch. Just hoping I didn't speak to soon, he's got his hopes up.

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

As a former southerner, you have nooooooo idea how much the NW Trend stuck the fear of God into everyone when a track looked good only for it to rain out...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

As someone who lives in the NW of New England, you have no idea how much we want to see that trend.

[DJln491]

Nice to ski country get a little more involved

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

TFlizzy strikes again. Congrats EMA.

We knew it would find a way to hit areas EOR....6-10 inches here is fine by me though. If the 10th gives us a few, we might be pushing all of last year's totals in a 3-4 day period

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s 12+ for most of SNE and 18+ for Ray down to Foxboro 

 

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

TFlizzy strikes again. Congrats EMA.

Everyone W of the River needs to keep expectations in check.  I'll wait until Friday to to see what the chances of warning snows here are.

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Clown.

You going to do a map for the HCS crowd?

[CoastalWx]

That's close here. Any further ticks and Ray gets his bedtime fantasy. Verbatim we take though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Man. Snows well into the night for most of us 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we nearly lost the lead wave on this run, but it was running NW of the previous runs, so it kept all the forcing near the coast and inland instead of getting swept seaward.

I remain skeptical it plays out that perfectly, but we'll see...3 days to ponder and observe data.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s 12+ for most of SNE and 18+ for Ray down to Foxboro 

Looks like the Euro's superior grid spacing may be tapping into the local baroclinic field.

The 925mb through 850 mb thermal gradients are rather packed from the mid Jersey coast up toward the Cape; that's an indication of the rather upright frontal structure extending skywards - above/over top where the pressure bends back NW. 

IF/when the mid level wind max noses over that, the inflow (synoptic scale) that it induces below will then be forced in ascent at a very proficient manner - enhancing the rate of QPF generation being one result. But also, the enhanced UVM lowers the surface pressure more.

That's all likely why we are beneath 990 mb.  

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, some places will be powder for most. Looks to start wet here and dry out as we move along.

It stays colder up here so probably would be better then 10:1.

[weathafella]

Is tonight the first run with better sampling?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You going to do a map for the HCS crowd?

Are they looking for me? Have not been in there in a while.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not physically impossible - if that's what you mean.  

But yeah, also being on more than one model (cross-guidance) lends confidence.   It's a delicate precision wave space interaction - impressive that we are getting that "agreement" ( however tacit notwithstanding) with such a fragile arrangment at D4 .. 4.5

Read my mind, John....that said, we are "due" for one of these breaks...

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remain skeptical it plays out that perfectly, but we'll see...3 days to ponder and observe data.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

We knew it would find a way to hit areas EOR....6-10 inches here is fine by me though. If the 10th gives us a few, we might be pushing all of last year's totals in a 3-4 day period

Yup. It’s the nature of a fast flow regime that’s the norm these days. Totals are irrelevant with this one though, agree, just get us on the board and make it a festive winter day. 

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

Is tonight the first run with better sampling?

I think it is, I hope these 12z runs got a taste of whats to come.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, weathafella said:

Is tonight the first run with better sampling?

I think that is what OceanSt said yesterday

[40/70 Benchmark]

That would get mid level magic up near Brian.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think that is what OceanSt said yesterday

The initial S/W is right on the coast so I think between RAOBs and satellite...probably pretty good there. The others are more tomorrow and tomorrow night. There is ALOT of shit flying around. Even the Nctrl US had a big change from 00z with a small s/w.