Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[weatherwiz]

That is a nice hit for the interior on the euro...we take! some mixing concerns along the coast though. Very excited right now, but holding off on any kind of snowfall total forecast until Friday 12z runs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Take em up 

I will gladly take until Saturday to wait for any potential late shredding.

[dryslot]

Nice run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Take em up 

Pants should be down 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, weathafella said:

988 easy of the elbow.

we crushed!

[MJO812]

Euro bias ?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

David the dilfs Pants are being taken down as we speak 

What?

[ORH_wxman]

Does the quasi-capture scenario that is ideal for still getting heavy burst of snow and then prolonging the stuff on Sunday

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nice run.

I’m feeling ready to steal this

[Typhoon Tip]

looks like a solid hit on the Euro - moderate but solid. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro bias ?

seems like these southern storms always bump north on the models 

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

I’m feeling ready to steal this

Nice improvement, Probably not done either.

[CoastalWx]

Great hit SNH to nrn RI. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Does the quasi-capture scenario that is ideal for still getting heavy burst of snow and then prolonging the stuff on Sunday

So this trailing S/W catching up and somewhat slowing this down some looks to be a real thing…it’s on all the 12z modeling to some degree. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Does the quasi-capture scenario that is ideal for still getting heavy burst of snow and then prolonging the stuff on Sunday

haha... you're so greedy

[weatherwiz]

ehhh stupid Ptype algorithms. 

Rates depending, it's probably even mostly snow towards the coast...maybe the immediate shoreline is mixing but its pretty damn cold aloft

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

seems like these southern storms always bump north on the models 

Yep

It's insane how the emotions were.

[ineedsnow]

over a foot here we take

[wxsniss]

Ironically the actual pieces of shortwave energy looked a bit better at 0z, but more ridging on this run brought this further north... great run for NEMA

[Typhoon Tip]

The continuity between the 00z and 12z solutions out there around 84 -102 hours is pretty damn clad and tight.

This is the best interval, to date, wrt this event that's shown more than a modicum of confidence/determinism.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its nuts how that Ginxy to you to Scooter corridor cleans up all of the time the last several years.

Congrats on 18 to 24 on the Euro 

[CoastalWx]

That's a great loop if you get the chance to see. H5 vorticity catching up and helping slow the low down. 

[weathafella]

QPF

 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

seems like these southern storms always bump north on the models 

As a former southerner, you have nooooooo idea how much the NW Trend stuck the fear of God into everyone when a track looked good only for it to rain out...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh stupid Ptype algorithms. 

Rates depending, it's probably even mostly snow towards the coast...maybe the immediate shoreline is mixing but its pretty damn cold aloft

I think it’s been said a few times, but I think anyone 5-10 miles inland from the coast is fine. Might not be powder, but it’ll be snow 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

looks like a solid hit on the Euro - moderate but solid. 

Moderate?

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That's a great loop if you get the chance to see. H5 vorticity catching up and helping slow the low down. 

Nice capture in the GOM, I saw that.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

QPF

 

 

I ninjad ya

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a great loop if you get the chance to see. H5 vorticity catching up and helping slow the low down. 

Unreal pasted for you there. 1.5+ qpf 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Ironically the actual pieces of shortwave energy looked a bit better at 0z, but more ridging on this run brought this further north... great run for NEMA

Yeah we nearly lost the lead wave on this run, but it was running NW of the previous runs, so it kept all the forcing near the coast and inland instead of getting swept seaward.