Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[wxsniss]

Sweet spot for SNE that we discussed on 0z Euro last night:

lead shortwave stronger but slightly more delayed, while not strong enough to push baroclinic zone too far southeast + trailing shortwave a tick faster so more likely to invigorate a parting CCB... if all this holds, that last component could push parts of E/SE SNE to 5-10 or more

Great to see 12z GFS trending towards this

[CoastalWx]

GFS BUFKIT is like 5-6" of glop for places like Plymouth. All snow, but probably pretty wet. 

[Zeus]

Hm. Yes.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I can't wait to start geeking out over Bufkit. 12z GFS usually out around noon...sometimes as early as 11:56 AM EST. It might be early but it's never early. 

we all have are fetishes.  Mine's the FOUS grid.  I love it when a big dawg arrives near enough to show up in the FOUS numerics.  Seeing a UVM of 30+ units with a .95" melted equiv in the QPF column, whilst a thermal profile of -2/-2/-4 (C) at hour 60 ... while knowing that the storm really maxes at hour 72 makes ... Then waiting for the next model cycle, and when seeing it arrive with not only that .95" but the new 60 is a buck and quarter... Ho man!  Load that needle with the good smack - that's like that "Blue Magic" from "American Gangster"

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Hm. Yes.

YES!

NOW....winter can OFFICIALLY START

[Hoth]

Zeus is in the house. Winter is here!

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Recent GFS outputs seem to have some substantial convective interference with the SLP track as it traverses southern AL, MS and GA.

I don’t see any other guidance with the SLP being pulled so far south by convection.

EDIT: Looking into this, seems to first surface at the 18Z run yesterday

18z run yesterday….Hmmm ya don’t say? Lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Hm. Yes.

My man. sup King

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

18z run yesterday….Hmmm ya don’t say? Lol. 

Garbage run! Unreliable! Toss!!

[The Graupler]

I worry about GLORB ratio on the backend, might need to temper expectations especially with a positive FLoRat at 500 mb 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

I worry about GLORB ratio on the backend, might need to temper expectations especially with a positive FLoRat at 500 mb 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks a bit more amped than 06z through 60 hours.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

While we wrestle with the 80s, euro looks good, more amped, thru 72. 

[ineedsnow]

hopefully it comes north a bit

[dryslot]

Higher heights out ahead of the SLP on the 12z Euro at hr78, Going to be north of 0z

[binbisso]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks a bit more amped than 06z through 60 hours.

Confluence as much better through hour 72.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks a bit more amped than 06z through 60 hours.

yup

[weathafella]

This should be a good one.

[dryslot]

Going to be a good bit north of 0z.

[weathafella]

More expansive vs 0z

[weathafella]

Sne pummeled at 96

[Damage In Tolland]

This is the Poundmetown run right here 

[dryslot]

We take.

[WinterWolf]

She blowing up…

[weathafella]

Much better for NNE vs 0z

[Torch Tiger]

much betterer

[40/70 Benchmark]

Aroused....

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is that mekster before the face reveal?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Aroused....

Take em up 

[ineedsnow]

hopefully its right!!