Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS finding the horse. Love when systems go east from the BM for us. Lingering snow.

Snows well into Sunday night 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

53 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

However, we've seen in the past few years how the ensembles can be underdispersive (i.e. not capturing the true spread of potential outcomes). It's why we tend to see the ensemble mean shift in tandem with the op so often. 

Completely .

wouldn’t be shocked if that shifted before late nite runs and like you said they often shift in tandem 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wow at the 10th    14" on Pivotal for my hood.

 

 

 

Just now, ineedsnow said:

yup close to all snow for us

Take it to the January thread you two.  

[TheSnowman]

I’m Leaving for Saudi Arabia on Monday night (Yes again) So I’m BARELY going to catch this one.  

 

PLEASE DON’T LOSE IT my dear MODELS!  I Beg of you!    

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah this isn't the thread for 1/10....lets keep this one about 1/7 so peeps don't get confused.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

12" in 24 hours for Brattleboro on the 10th... Holy f***...

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The 7th will be a little more tenuous for the Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor.

We will be a little bit too far northwest.  May end up with crappy snow growth on the easterly flow.

[Prismshine Productions]

The 7th will be a little more tenuous for the Greenfield to Brattleboro corridor.
We will be a little bit too far northwest.  May end up with crappy snow growth on the easterly flow.

As long as there is snow on the ground idc, considering I spent 28 winters in the south and only have 2 major snows to speak of (8" in 2010, 5" in 2018) I will take what I can get XD.

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[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

As long as there is snow on the ground idc, considering I spent 28 winters in the south and only have 2 major snows to speak of (8" in 2010, 5" in 2018) I will take what I can get XD.

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ya just a bit of a change for you lol

[weatherwiz]

I can't wait to start geeking out over Bufkit. 12z GFS usually out around noon...sometimes as early as 11:56 AM EST. It might be early but it's never early. 

[moneypitmike]

34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

much better run we take!!! lingering snows also

Days and days.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I can't wait to start geeking out over Bufkit. 12z GFS usually out around noon...sometimes as early as 11:56 AM EST. It might be early but it's never early. 

On the point soundings for SE MA, it had a good cross-hair sig on the 12z run....your area may have been a little far NW on GFS for the real goods in that department, but it wouldn't take much of a move to get into them.

[ineedsnow]

GEFS still kind of meh

[weathafella]

Good morning folks.  Is this the one where euro shows the way at d4 like days of yore?  I’d lime to believe it but I’m an old weenie.   

[weathafella]

I didn’t want to make much of it but despite the paltry gfs run last night the muthufukkas were strong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

Its nuts how that Ginxy to you to Scooter corridor cleans up all of the time the last several years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I’m Leaving for Saudi Arabia on Monday night (Yes again) So I’m BARELY going to catch this one.  

 

PLEASE DON’T LOSE IT my dear MODELS!  I Beg of you!    

Here is a little parting gift from Methuen

[Prismshine Productions]

Slight decrease from 6z

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[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its nuts how that Ginxy to you to Scooter corridor cleans up all of the time the last several years.

This will be more just inland from me I think. Enjoy the mini CJ prior to any main snow.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is a bit tamer than 00z....doesn't have that 12"+ type snow from BOS-HFD south....more like 6-10" with advisory stuff prob into S NH

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

As long as there is snow on the ground idc, considering I spent 28 winters in the south and only have 2 major snows to speak of (8" in 2010, 5" in 2018) I will take what I can get XD.

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Perspective is a beautiful thing. Can we send some sne peeps down south for a decade?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a bit tamer than 00z....doesn't have that 12"+ type snow from BOS-HFD south....more like 6-10" with advisory stuff prob into S NH

Still a nice hit. I’d say good runs so far at 12z

[ineedsnow]

ukie

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ukie

Hmm. Kind of gross 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GEFS still paltry most members have 2" or less for all of SNE .. not too concerned about it considering it's history unless euro and eps follow .. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hmm. Kind of gross 

You can ignore the Ukie clown map close to the coast...it has a bad warm bias near the sfc, so it often shows rain like 10-15 miles inland despite 925 temps of like -3C.

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hmm. Kind of gross 

Clown map messing up the BL perhaps?

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS still paltry most members have 2" or less for all of SNE

Well with all the models trending better than they did last night except the euro, it's a good sign.

[CoastalWx]

GEM ensembles on the outer cape haha.

[Greg]

Typical GEM bias being furthest north with other models further south. Interesting but not surprising knowing the traditional model biases this lag time.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

and also the 10th on the GFS 

You like that, check out the 15th...