Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-snowy-sunday.html

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping for some mid-level magic this far north

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Winter Wizard said:

Confluence is a bit weaker this run, I expect a tick back to the north. 

Yeah, in addition to slight ( but crucially) deeper lead S/W, there's a better S/W ridging rolling out ahead. That should left the axis N in concert with what you're seeing there -

[dryslot]

Its out to 109, If you keep things in check, Its an improvement from 06z

[CoastalWx]

Trailing s/w keeps it going. 

[NorEastermass128]

4-8” is a KU after the past couple years of garbage. 

[ineedsnow]

much better run we take!!! lingering snows also

[dryslot]

Closes off a bit late east of the cape.

[ORH_wxman]

There's the re-invigoration Sunday PM on the GFS as the trailer catches up....some nice bands redevelop over much of SNE.

[CoastalWx]

Actually intensifies low well east of ACK. Lets get that to happen sooner.

[HoarfrostHubb]

TT clowns through 96 have 2 jackpot zones.  S RI and N ORH county over into Middlesex county

 

[Winter Wizard]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, in addition to slight ( but crucially) deeper lead S/W, there's a better S/W ridging rolling out ahead. That should left the axis N in concert with what you're seeing there -

Yep, exactly, all of those pieces are working in tandem which makes this complex. Putting it together, I think these are subtle but noticeable improvements across the board for most in this subforum. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

TT clowns through 96 have 2 jackpot zones.  S RI and N ORH county over into Middlesex county

 

I mentioned something similar I think yesterday, but I could see two jackpot areas in this. I was thinking something like just north of the sfc/850 low and then maybe something else with the 700 warm front. 

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That east inflow. You should do well.

I love these easterly flow setups. That’s how this area racks it up . I hope that is real on modeling .

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's the re-invigoration Sunday PM on the GFS as the trailer catches up....some nice bands redevelop over much of SNE.

I can picture a freakout Sunday because the radar is looking bleak then all of a sudden we see a re-blossom of the precip as the trailing s/w makes its way in the picture. 

[ORH_wxman]

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

10" or so in Plymouth, MA

[Winter Wizard]

Hour 108 looks pretty juicy too with the stronger storm just off the Cape. May open up the door for a longer duration event as this continues to throw moisture back toward the coast. Perhaps that could make up for a potential messy start? 

[ineedsnow]

I wonder if there was some sort of data loss into yesterdays models which caused the weaker and south trend?

[Prismshine Productions]

Significant improvement

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[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

Hasn't the GGEM been the most reticent to losing this thing all along?  seems that way - but I only see that model at 12z and 00z.  Last night's 00z was only S of the 12z yesterday but was still a more potent low response.   i dunno

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

Love it. Hope to see the Euro hold. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is a crusher. Looks like the icon 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Somewhere from like Ginx over to Foxboro would easily see a door on the Canadian depiction. Could be a wild day for football 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I love these easterly flow setups. That’s how this area racks it up . I hope that is real on modeling .

GFS finding the horse. Love when systems go east from the BM for us. Lingering snow.

[Boston Bulldog]

Recent GFS outputs seem to have some substantial convective interference with the SLP track as it traverses southern AL, MS and GA.

I don’t see any other guidance with the SLP being pulled so far south by convection.

EDIT: Looking into this, seems to first surface at the 18Z run yesterday

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

Just smilin better bump up that NBM output

[ineedsnow]

and also the 10th on the GFS 

[Prismshine Productions]

12z suite trends so far:

GFS: came north
ICON: came north
Canadian: came north
JMA: taller ridge and less confluence
RGEM: only out to 84 but looked solid

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[ineedsnow]

holy**** that's a nutty GFS run    I wonder if this storm being better actually helps that one