Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's important to look at these panels like Ginxy has here. The ensemble means may look nice, but don't tell the whole story. 

Like for Mount Tolland for instance, the EPS mean is about 5.5 inches. But the 25th/75th range is 1.5 to 8.5 inches. So some bigger members are dragging the mean up, while the floor still remains quite low. When you can start setting the floor higher, that's when you can start honking for a storm.

The 6z eps 25th/75th percentile range is 5-6" and 7-8" for a pretty large area of SNE .. It would be a pretty big bust by the EPS to not get plowable .. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie has a decent look at 84h with the leading s/w. Looks like it holds enough mechanics together.

I'm kind of hoping it degenerates but not entirely, and we get like a light to moderate burst, followed by the jet going by smearing out 30 straight ours of blue-gray tinted light through windows with mood snowing trickling down past. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie has a decent look at 84h with the leading s/w. Looks like it holds enough mechanics together.

looked Euroish

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm kind of hoping it degenerates but not entirely, and we get like a light to moderate burst, followed by the jet going by smearing out 30 straight ours of blue tinted light out the window mood snowing

That's kind of what the 06z GFS did....maybe weakened the first s/w slightly too miuch for your description, but it basically turned the event into a 30-36 hour light snow with maybe some moderate bursts for eastern areas Sunday PM as it tries to re-invigorate from the trailer shortwave before it exits.

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's kind of what the 06z GFS did....maybe weakened the first s/w slightly too miuch for your description, but it basically turned the event into a 30-36 hour light snow with maybe some moderate bursts for eastern areas Sunday PM as it tries to re-invigorate from the trailer shortwave before it exits.

 

How many times does this type of solution actually pan out though? I feel like it's not very common. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm kind of hoping it degenerates but not entirely, and we get like a light to moderate burst, followed by the jet going by smearing out 30 straight ours of blue tinted light out the window mood snowing

best time of year for mood snows, should still accumulate assuming the boundary layer isn't torched. I remember sitting in school hoping for an early dismissal as the snow was coming down for hours, not knowing it was going to be hours of white rain because late February/early March. But as soon as the sun started to set, the roads would become an instant disaster.... 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

looked Euroish

NCEP should create a crowd control model called the 'OHMYGODISH'   Run it several iterations over -whatever it takes - with perturbed physics and/or diabolically tweaking initialization grid values, anything to get the model to always illustrate the maximum dystopian potential.

-that way ... if when we say, "It looks OHMYGODISH..." we have a direct frame of reference to pin our hopes to  

[dryslot]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If that's amped that's pretty sad. You can't even find a kink in the isohypses of the remnant s/w.

I went and looked and said huh? That thing is shredded thru the grinder, The trailer looks to amplify though it would be a day later.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

How many times does this type of solution actually pan out though? I feel like it's not very common. 

It isn't because the storm usually consolidates onto one shortwave/vortmax. But this is the type of situation where it could not do that if that front runner gets sheared quick enough....my personal gut feeling is that the front runner survives enough for a decent event from that piece of energy with maybe a little lingering -SN from the trailer. But prob not one of these 30-36 hour deals.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's kind of what the 06z GFS did....maybe weakened the first s/w slightly too miuch for your description, but it basically turned the event into a 30-36 hour light snow with maybe some moderate bursts for eastern areas Sunday PM as it tries to re-invigorate from the trailer shortwave before it exits.

 

I'd be okay with that. 

I mean ... ( you know what I mean here -) this is our first attempt at getting this winter to do jack shit that looks at all like winter.  I'm willing to (holistic sensibility) allow this be an appetizer -shot across bow- type of event. 

You know, there's a signal around the 15th  -any takers? LOL

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's important to look at these panels like Ginxy has here. The ensemble means may look nice, but don't tell the whole story. 

Like for Mount Tolland for instance, the EPS mean is about 5.5 inches. But the 25th/75th range is 1.5 to 8.5 inches. So some bigger members are dragging the mean up, while the floor still remains quite low. When you can start setting the floor higher, that's when you can start honking for a storm.

Dry members bringing the mean down you mean. We Amp up. Save a horse 

[ORH_wxman]

ICON looked like 00z Ukie....really big hit for BOS-HFD line southward. Maybe move the heavy precip line a bit north of that on the ICON.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It isn't because the storm usually consolidates onto one shortwave/vortmax. But this is the type of situation where it could not do that if that front runner gets sheared quick enough....my personal gut feeling is that the front runner survives enough for a decent event from that piece of energy with maybe a little lingering -SN from the trailer. But prob not one of these 30-36 hour deals.

That's what I'm kind of leaning towards as well. I think this will be a decent first event for everyone and at least something that ends the shutout. My initial expectations are for something in the 3-6'' range. If we get closer and things start falling in place and there is room for something higher...awesome. But I'm not going to be disappointed if I got 3''

[ORH_wxman]

ICON QPF for those waiting on TT

[Ginx snewx]

Really guys 84 hr Nam?? Definitely out of practice in here.

[dryslot]

SNE will be fine on this one, Have patience.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

SNE will be fine on this one, Have patience.

Grasshoppers 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON QPF for those waiting on TT

Nice CCB death band. Still smilin

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The 6z eps 25th/75th range is 5-6" and 7-8" for a pretty large area of SNE .. It would be a pretty big bust by the EPS to not get plowable .. 

 

 

Those are pretty tight ranges for 25/75 too. That would suggest high confidence from the Euro. 

However, we've seen in the past few years how the ensembles can be underdispersive (i.e. not capturing the true spread of potential outcomes). It's why we tend to see the ensemble mean shift in tandem with the op so often. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Grasshoppers 

Ya I feel pretty good.. It's pretty much all foreign guidance vs American guidance at this point.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON looked like 00z Ukie....really big hit for BOS-HFD line southward. Maybe move the heavy precip line a bit north of that on the ICON.

Are you getting your products from a paid service other than tropical tits or pivotal shits?

I'm always hung on like  ...hr 72 on these sites while you guys are clanking goblets of ale over the model run

[Damage In Tolland]

A lot of the models are showing a valley snow shadow . Just something to notice 

[Typhoon Tip]

no wonder no one reads my posts.  i'm always an hour late

[PWMan]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SNE will be fine on this one, Have patience.

Yeah, seems like it's CNE/NNE that's more on the fence. Looking like mood snows or cirrus/dim-sun here unless "the north trend" kicks in.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

A lot of the models are showing a valley snow shadow . Just something to notice 

HAHA  ... add that to the list -

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are you getting your products from a paid service other than tropical tits or pivotal shits?

I'm always hung on like  ...hr 72 on these sites while you guys are clanking goblets of ale over the model run

That was from weathermodels.com which is paid....pretty cheap though. I've been considering switching, but I'm giving this site one more winter.

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Yeah, seems like it's CNE/NNE that's more on the fence. Looking like mood snows or cirrus here unless "the north trend" kicks in.

Fringe at best, I'm not expecting much really, Would need some larger changes in the synoptics, I think we need to wait for the one on the 10th.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dry members bringing the mean down you mean. We Amp up. Save a horse 

I meant what I said. 

When you have your mean sitting higher than the 50th percentile, you're dragging the mean up. We've actually seen in the regional verification that quite often our (the NWS') forecast is closer to the 90th percentile than the 10th of the forecast spread. We almost always forecast too much snow, except for the picnic tables and First Connecticut Lake. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay ... I see.  The ICON is doing what the Euro is attempting to do.

Both appear to initiate a coastal response ( to varying specific success) out of the first wave, which is in the process of being merged with the 2nd - playing rapid catch up.  The 2nd wave sort of quasi captures where the first wave initially triggered the coastal response, and then takes over governing the evolution of the event thereafter.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON QPF for those waiting on TT

Damn, tasty