Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[weathafella]

Snow clowns.

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s an absolute beauty. I’d sign right now no questions asked. 

[Deck Pic]

congrats

[wxsniss]

Holy cow... one of the better runs yet for SNE... 12z Sun (hour 108):

[78Blizzard]

Actually a bit further north than the Ukie.

[weathafella]

Stingy once you get past MHT and north.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

QPF:

 

 

Holy smokes that’s a whallop…1.25-1.5” of qpf.  

[weathafella]

That's a sne shellacking.   

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

congrats

Welcome to the party!  Funeral at 12Z.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s an absolute beauty. I’d sign right now no questions asked. 

You ain’t kidding…I’ll take my 15” and sprint home and hope nobody asks any questions is right.  

[wxsniss]

Things I'm seeing that improved this Euro run:

more shortwave energy overall + slower lead wave + faster trailing wave allowing more interaction

Great to see to buck the GFS trends!

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That's a sne shellacking.   

For sure. All of a sudden not so strung out lol. 

[weathafella]

Foxboro will be a sight to see Sunday.   

[RDRY]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Snow clowns.

 

 

 

[8611Blizz]

Comes in like a wall and drops a footer in Boston. Thing is though, that track is PERFECT. Like true perfection.    What could go wrong?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You ain’t kidding…I’ll take my 15” and sprint home and hope nobody asks any questions is right.  

Unfortunately, in the old days you could take the Euro to the bank with onset just around 100 hours out. Now it’s just another piece of guidance. Let’s see what the ensembles do. That at least counters weaker/warmer. For now. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

Comes in like a wall and drops a footer in Boston. Thing is though, that track is PERFECT. Like true perfection.    What could go wrong?

Sure…but I’d rather that at the moment, then what the GFS showed the last two runs. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Unfortunately, in the old days you could take the Euro to the bank with onset just around 100 hours out. Now it’s just another piece of guidance. Let’s see what the ensembles do. That at least counters weaker/warmer. For now. 

So true Don.  But I like that it’s saying not so fast to the GFS…for the moment. I was like, why am I gonna be dumb and stay up for the euro? Rather glad I did for once in a long time. 

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Sure…but I’d rather that at the moment, then what the GFS showed the last two runs. 

Me too but the expectations its setting are about as perfect as I can remember. 

The ball is in the GFS court now. Good old fashion model war...

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Me too but the expectations its setting are about as perfect as I can remember. 

The ball is in the GFS court now. Good old fashion model war...

Well the take away is we won’t expect that exact depiction, but just maybe the Euro might be on to something?  Be nice if it could get some if it’s mojo back again?  

[78Blizzard]

2nd half of storm is quite cold, too with 2m temps dropping into lower 20's.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

2nd half of storm is quite cold, too with 2m temps dropping into lower 20's.

Yes, it was a totally better, and much more dynamic set up all around. 

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well the take away is we won’t expect that exact depiction, but just maybe the Euro might be on to something?  Be nice if it could get some if it’s mojo back again?  

Tell me about it.  Maybe it will school the Americans like not so long ago.

[WinterWolf]

Ok I gotta get some sleep… hopefully the EPS is also on board with that OP depiction..

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

2nd half of storm is quite cold, too with 2m temps dropping into lower 20's.

Like days of old....1960-61 vibe for that.   Of course Euro severely cuts the 10th way way west which you would think wouldn't happen with the 7th wound up but GFS more or less ignored the 7th and is signaling a colder solution for the 10th.

[WxWatcher007]

It’s hard to find fault with something that dynamic on the table. Like usual, we probably split the difference between Euro/GFS, which would be a nice moderate event for many of us. 

If I were setting a bar imby it’d be at 4” with more legitimate upward wiggle room than the opposite. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Like days of old....1960-61 vibe for that.   Of course Euro severely cuts the 10th way way west which you would think wouldn't happen with the 7th wound up but GFS more or less ignored the 7th and is signaling a colder solution for the 10th.

Lots to figure out still with this first system, that 10th potential is way out there yet…

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Like days of old....1960-61 vibe for that.   Of course Euro severely cuts the 10th way way west which you would think wouldn't happen with the 7th wound up but GFS more or less ignored the 7th and is signaling a colder solution for the 10th.

Yeah, that 10th storm could cause some real flooding problems with that snowpack.

[wxsniss]

Interesting concordances of the moment at 0z:

Euro ≈ 110% UK: jack southeast NY-CT-Pike-BOS

vs.

CMC ≈ 110% GFS: jack northern MD-southeast PA-NJ

[mannynyc]

EPS is southeast too