Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oof. That’s very south 

Yep

[mannynyc]

24 hour difference in GEFS is almost chuckleworthy.

Last night


Tonight

[MuddyWx]

I feel like this has been trending weaker now for a while

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The Canadian end result isn’t terrible, but it’s definitely a good bit south of 12z

The problem is that some of today's model solutions are a trending towards a bit flatter than we ideally want to see for a system that has trended towards less impressive with regards to dynamics.  We still have 24 hours to turn it around but a weak, sheared out system is definitely on the table. Let's hope we stabilize towards a model consensus for general 2-4" broadbrush across SNE.  Nothing to write home about but a win for everybody with some lolli's. 

[8611Blizz]

Local Mets are all over the place. Some say a fast mover, others a long duration, still others say rain/sleet is an issue. Fisher mentioned shearing and strung out as an issue.  Still early at least.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

I feel like this has been trending weaker now for a while

Flatter and weaker is the scenario you want to avoid.  Watch the 500mb charts.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie is well south of BM and 100 miles south of 12z 

but it must have some mid level magic bc the weenie maps look good esp route 2 / pike south

[RDRY]

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t think it works that way 

You want it to speed up to catch the energy from the first vort slow down and juice up the broad system. That’s my limited understanding 

If that lead wave keeps de-amping, the trailing wave may gain enough space/dynamics to put down 2-5.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie is well south of BM

but it must have some magic bc the weenie maps look good

2-3" of fluff would still be a win.

[MJO812]

[The 4 Seasons]

UKMET is south but was also very far N and warm at 12Z so its expected. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, RDRY said:

If that lead wave keeps de-amping, the trailing wave may gain enough space/dynamics to put down 2-5.

That's a lot to ask for with that spacing.  I don't disagree, just not high odds.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Crazy Drunkle?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

2-3" of fluff would still be a win.

Of course , just it shifted 100 miles south and requires having mid levels correct 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

UKMET is south but was also very far N and warm at 12Z so its expected. 

I’d take that and run 

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's a lot to ask for with that spacing.  I don't disagree, just not high odds.

Long odds seem to be the only odds we got these days.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's a lot to ask for with that spacing.  I don't disagree, just not high odds.

I don’t think anything is high odds right now lol.  Ya got the dumb ass UKMET crushing the area…we know that model is pretty bad now, so that’s most likely wrong.  That trailer wave is messing with things…who knows how that ultimately ends up over the next few days?  This is far from figured out now.  

As Runnaway said…if we can pull off a few fluffy inches it’s definitely a win. 
 

 

 

[kazimirkai]

25 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

GEFS

I mean yeah these are all over the place. Some show a foot of snow in places while others have almost nothing anywhere

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Long odds seem to be the only odds we got these days.

Yes sir. And as I mentioned earlier, when we track these from extended lead …7-8 days out, many times things that weren’t foreseen early on(in this case trailing wave) start to emerge as we move along.  And that’s what’s happening now.  It’ll be interesting how this all ends up over the next few days? 

[weathafella]

Looks like uncle gave up on the dry January idea….

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Looks like uncle gave up on the dry January idea….

He’s blitzed a day after his New Years resolution. 

[78Blizzard]

I wouldn't want to pin my hopes on the Ukie.  Although it was pretty consistent from 12z to 0z.  Just strange that the further south track led to more qpf in much of SNE.  It is definitely the wettest of the models.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

I wouldn't want to pin my hopes on the Ukie.  Although it was pretty consistent from 12z to 0z.  Just strange that the further south track led to more qpf in much of SNE.  It is definitely the wettest of the models.

Well one more will chime in within 30 minutes or less.

[weathafella]

Euro crushes!

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro crushes!

Really?  Very interesting.  Like it’s drunk(or maybe not so drunk?) cousin the UKMET. 

[weathafella]

[weathafella]

BM track.  Perfect.

[weathafella]

QPF:

 

 

[78Blizzard]

Wow, similar track to Ukie and with the qpf, too.

[WinterWolf]

Nothing strung out about that.