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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


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17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Forgot our page long dispute? The Pope said it's not going to snow this coming weekend because of the warm Temp anomalies Saturday before the storm.. That's just a blind squirrel (watch out for Wolfie) finding the wrong nut if we happen to get skunked..  

Omega doesn't understand the concept of "right for the wrong reason"....like when he claimed victory all last week about his December call, yet predicted that it would remain mild because the MJO would stall in phase 7, which never happened.

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@jbenedetWhat I don't understand is that if we are "imbeciles" and a "circle of rejects", why not simply defer on waiting for the board majority to place you on ignore and simply stop "contributing" here? Makes me wonder what gaping hole you have in your life to continue endeavoring on this hapless and misguided effort to distract yourself from said hole, instead of spending time on more worthwhile pursuits, such as trying to address whatever shortcoming it is that makes you feel compelled to spew venom on a weather forum.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes…sensing some serious anxt out Taunton at 18z.  He was one of the ones cancelling January on Friday too…

Let’s be honest, nobody is going to be super confident in plowable snowfall until we’re inside of 3 days with good model agreement. 
 

A couple cycles ago, the S and SE peeps were all worried about this being a hugger…now the worry is the opposite. Nobody really knows whether this is the “one” to be worried about or if it will bump back NW on the next cycle. But that’s life 5 days out on a storm threat. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s be honest, nobody is going to be super confident in plowable snowfall until we’re inside of 3 days with good model agreement. 
 

A couple cycles ago, the S and SE peeps were all worried about this being a hugger…now the worry is the opposite. Nobody really knows whether this is the “one” to be worried about or if it will bump back NW on the next cycle. But that’s life 5 days out on a storm threat. 

Nor should anyone ever be but weenies gon’ weenie.  
Let’s see by tomorrow night if it is looking sheared out at all and what interference the trailing wave is creating. 

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nor should anyone ever be but weenies gon’ weenie.  
Let’s see by tomorrow night if it is looking sheared out at all and what interference the trailing wave is creating. 

Times like these It’s important to mention the resources weenies here have . The wx weenie hotline is open 24/7 with extra staff thru Sunday . I’m not only the President but also a client . You may be put on hold during 12z and 0z model runs but we have updated soothing squeeze box tunes courtesy of another client .

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Need to see that shortwave not get so strung out at 00z

It probably will be but that doesn’t preclude a juicy moisture feed.  I recall an event in February 1974 that was a strung out 12+.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It probably will be but that doesn’t preclude a juicy moisture feed.  I recall an event in February 1974 that was a strung out 12+.

Don’t want a stronger follow up kicking it out too quickly though.  During the day Sunday everybody will need to see some decent rates for a time to get a region wide 3-4”. 

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@jbenedetWhat I don't understand is that if we are "imbeciles" and a "circle of rejects", why not simply defer on waiting for the board majority to place you on ignore and simply stop "contributing" here? Makes me wonder what gaping hole you have in your life to continue endeavoring on this hapless and misguided effort to distract yourself from said hole, instead of spending time on more worthwhile pursuits, such as trying to address whatever shortcoming it is that makes you feel compelled to spew venom on a weather forum.

You are a counselor and you know a lot about projection.  It makes me sad when people behave that way because you know they are in pain.  It is amazing what genuine apologies and resulting forgiveness can do to create happiness and friendship.  This is a great Board and I appreciate everything you and many others do on here.  And I hope some can look more closely at themselves and reengage with a more friendly attitude.

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12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don’t want a stronger follow up kicking it out too quickly though.  During the day Sunday everybody will need to see some decent rates for a time to get a region wide 3-4”. 

Well if it can’t achieve decent rates…then it’s a complete loss especially in the beginning of January.  I mean let’s be real, this isn’t early November, or late March. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Or maybe the SW really is just going to get strung out. Would that suprise you?

No it wouldn’t, I said that earlier. Given the s/w train across the US, definitely not.
 

I just meant that if you’re hoping that sampling would help, it’s not for another day. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No it wouldn’t, I said that earlier. Given the s/w train across the US, definitely not.
 

I just meant that if you’re hoping that sampling would help, it’s not for another day. 

As long as people aren’t surprised if it is a solid shortwave capable of warning snows I’ll be watching model runs closely . I understand it can go either way still . If it goes to shredville folks will know as the page count per day shrinks violently 

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