Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,592
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Manpower
    Newest Member
    Manpower
    Joined

Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

That much continuity change wrt to the S/W identity, at this range and modeling tech, strikes me as something fishy in the assimilation over the eastern Pacific.  Too many S/W in closer succession; the assimilation/interpolation aspects may be splitting the S/W space, given momentum to the lead, giving it away to both the lead and trailing deal on this run.

12z tomorrow this whole mess will be nosing onboard out west.   If we're having this discussion tomorrow at this time I'll have less problem with it. 

That said, this event's governing mechanics were/are susceptible to attenuation for multiple reasons - we've out lined what those all were.  Wave spacing is just one of them.   Model problems with the speed of the flow and having to accelerate that when mid range nears (robbing from embedded S/W) is another.   Now assimilation is also one of those but is different than these other aspects - if that is culprit here, the next run could very well reverse that. 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh…that’s an old played out narrative for the most part. Historically 00z/12z was more accurate than 06z/18z, but any 06z/18z run tends to be more accurate than the 6hr previous run just because you’re closer to T minus 0.

The off hour opinion of accuracy is so 2000. Remote sensing is so good right now. And if anything we have lost RAOBs and need more remote sensing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh…that’s an old played out narrative for the most part. Historically 00z/12z was more accurate than 06z/18z, but any 06z/18z run tends to be more accurate than the 6hr previous run just because you’re closer to T minus 0.

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

I mean I know some have repeated this belief for those “off hour” runs so I’m pretty sure it was legit believed ,and I didn’t think it was an issue of any consequence but I wasn’t super confident so I wanted to know what Mets thought 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

Well to be fair, 12z showed 12+ for a chunk of SNE so 18z showing the same thing would just be continuity. 
 

If it showed 18+, my guess is most people would just say 18z is on the sauce at happy hour. 
 

We’ll know more at 00z. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean I know some have repeated this belief for those “off hour” runs so I’m pretty sure it was legit believed ,and I didn’t think it was an issue of any consequence but I wasn’t super confident so I wanted to know what Mets thought 

See above. I honestly don’t think there is a significant enough of a reason to warrant those thoughts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

No defense mechanism here Brett. Imo 18z many times show’s bizarre solutions a lot. If it had 12-18, I’d say wow that looks nice, but I’m not buying that either, unless 0z comes back with the same look.  So I was ready for the bad run. GFS had a bad run yesterday at 12z too for us. Then it came back. This may too? Or that trailing SW is legit and becomes a player…?  

I’m ok with a 2-4” snow too, gets us on the board, and off the mat as they say.   Not worried either way. Can’t get any worse when you’ve had zero to date, so it’s all good whatever we get. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a disaster . Hopefully just GFS being GFS

As Tippy said, the shortwaves all bunched up and over an area where sampling ( I suppose is not conductive for best accuracy ?) will lead to us being at the end of a fire hose with the end signifying the low position on Sunday am , flopping up and down and left and right .
 

That being said if multiple models show the same trend and do so over next 24 hours obviously that is weighted higher 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s an ugly solution but there is a way to still get a decent storm if that trailer catches up like the 18z icon. Or we keep the initial s/w stronger. 

I was told you stopped posting. 

  • Haha 3
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trailer s/w caught it and prolongs the event into like a 30-36 hour deal. That would be a new twist. 

Over/under on whether it snows longer than it was foggy last week

 

I just read through the last 14 pages of posts......so much excitement in the 12z reactions only to be replaced by the somber tones of winter 22-23.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Over/under on whether it snows longer than it was foggy last week

 

I just read through the last 14 pages of posts......so much excitement in the 12z reactions only to be replaced by the somber tones of winter 22-23.

 

 

Ya…this is common when tracking storms for long periods. Comes with the territory unfortunately.  The excitement will be back when the next run show’s more snow.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…this is common when tracking storms for long periods. Comes with the territory unfortunately.  The excitement will be back when the next run show’s more snow.  

I'm no stranger to that.....what's new is I wasn't able to see any models/posts until I got home from work.  So I got the whole rollercoaster ride in 30 minutes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well to be fair, 12z showed 12+ for a chunk of SNE so 18z showing the same thing would just be continuity. 
 

If it showed 18+, my guess is most people would just say 18z is on the sauce at happy hour. 
 

We’ll know more at 00z. 

This thing never looked like 12"+ to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, tavwtby said:

I was just going to say, is this even on land and being sampled better yet? and those off hour runs always tend to loose it some, I'm waiting for the 48" nam run to spit

Ha, I was just thinking how this thing isn't inside of 84hr where the NAM can start being the NAM....

One bad omen is this was a Sunday storm down here, now I am seeing this possibly starting Saturday evening. Storm is booking it here, so it probably is outrunning something leading to to the uglier look right now. Hopefully it comes back to something from 0z last night....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No there isn’t but I’m not setting that up as a lower goal post either . 3-6” is fine with me and I’m usually happy when snow is falling . 

If you look at the comeback el Nino years, none of then had huge events in early January....and we have a big trough out west with a wave attenuating on approach. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...