Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This. Moderate and hopefully long duration get off the mat event. If we do better great, if the low tracks over Hartford we crawl to the next threat. 

Yup. Remember, this was a whiff a few days ago when Benedick Arnold was rip reading models so the fact we have a legit shot to get off the mat is encouraging enough.

[Torch Tiger]

12z NOGAPS also way less amped/north compared to 6z/0z.  I know it's a terrible model but...concerns

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe a hair south of 6z but looks pretty close just eye balling.

Agreed. North of 00z EPS but a touch south of 06z EPS. Waiting on individual clusters to come out. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Remember, this was a whiff a few days ago when Benedick Arnold was rip reading models so the fact we have a legit shot to get off the mat is encouraging enough.

Not even a week ago this place was a funeral home. 

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. North of 00z EPS but a touch south of 06z EPS. Waiting on individual clusters to come out. 

 

[mannynyc]

Euro members vs GEFS

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

 

here's 114

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah EPS still has that Nw cluster 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Posting these to get an idea where the lean is and where most members favor on EPS ... 

 

[CoastalWx]

Probably why the mean looked a little slower.

[weatherwiz]

quite a bit of spread but pretty clear to see why the spread exists. stronger vs weaker 

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some spread arise over the next day or two before things tighten up again. Only question will be is when things tighten up again, is it towards the north/stronger camp or south/weaker? 

[NittanyWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah EPS still has that Nw cluster 

 

Should get a bit more convergence once this thing is sampled inside the next 24-36 hours.

 

 

[weathafella]

Those far eastern outliers skew the mean way more than the hugging cluster.  

[NittanyWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

quite a bit of spread but pretty clear to see why the spread exists. stronger vs weaker 

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some spread arise over the next day or two before things tighten up again. Only question will be is when things tighten up again, is it towards the north/stronger camp or south/weaker? 

Probably start the tightening process with the 0z suite tomorrow evening is my hunch

[weatherwiz]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

Probably start the tightening process with the 0z suite tomorrow evening is my hunch

Agreed, that's what I'm thinking as well.

[SouthCoastMA]

I'd feel pretty good at the moment anywhere NW of the canal, barring any more shifts northward. euro op would be good here but not buying it yet, JAM. 

[weathafella]

All 12z guidance have a decent snow Sunday.  Some moderate, others heavy.  Either way we are likely getting off the schneid.

[Spanks45]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Posting these to get an idea where the lean is and where most members favor on EPS ... 

 

looks fantastic around here.....even has some wiggle room, after last year a solid 4-8 inches would be fantastic, no complaints

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

All 12z guidance have a decent snow Sunday.  Some moderate, others heavy.  Either way we are likely getting off the schneid.

Yes, I feel that’s the takeaway too. 

[Chrisrotary12]

12z guidance still has a storm. All that matters.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

12z guidance still has a storm. All that matters.

Yeah, I mean I'd be happy with 3-6". I think people need to put a little perspective on things.

[KTBFFH1905]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I mean I'd be happy with 3-6". I think people need to put a little perspective on things.

If I wasn't so mature I would absolutely comment "That's what she said". 

[Bryan63]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I mean I'd be happy with 3-6". I think people need to put a little perspective on things.

I'll take an inch of snow at this point. Last meaningful snowfall I saw was 2016 before we moved south.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Bryan63 said:

I'll take an inch of snow at this point. Last meaningful snowfall I saw was 2016 before we moved south.

That's right, didn't you live in Weymouth at one point? Or work in Quincy? Where did you move to?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’m always a little concerned with SE and weaker.  Hopefully start to dial things in by this time tomorrow.

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I mean I'd be happy with 3-6". I think people need to put a little perspective on things.

Two maybe three chances for at least 3-6" for many by the middle of the month? That's pretty much average for an entire month right there.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Two maybe three chances for at least 3-6" for many by the middle of the month? That's pretty much average for an entire month right there.

It doesn't matter how you get there, all that matters is that you get there. 

[NoCORH4L]

Start at 8", can always go up if needed? 

[78Blizzard]

EPS based on the mean keeps it 32°F or below here for the duration.  A further northward track will change that, and I expect that mean to tick north in future runs.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

EPS based on the mean keeps it 32°F or below here for the duration.  A further northward track will change that, and I expect that mean to tick north in future runs.

Most places near 128 down to you will probably not be higher then 32 unless this come closer towards the Cape. Even with ENE winds.