Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish I could see euro soundings. Looks like it may have a funky warm layer in there

It did look a bit wonky here but I could see some mixing on the CT coast. 

[CoastalWx]

I'd like to see the QPF shield expand a bit from the low center. Probably a hell of a paster just NW of the canal.

[ORH_wxman]

Shortwave doesn’t really have much integrity to it like other guidance which I why the whole thing is weaker than other guidance. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Really? It looks like a similar track to me, just weaker and less moisture

Seriously?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Shortwave doesn’t really have much integrity to it like other guidance which I why the whole thing is weaker than other guidance. 

It’s probably more correct with that idea 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looked close to Ukie 

Track wasn’t too dissimilar (maybe a hair S) but it was not a dynamic as the Ukie solution. Still a solid storm but a Euro type solution is more of like a 5-10” storm for SNE (maybe a higher lolli) rather than 8-12/10-15 or something like that which some of the other guidance has. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It did look a bit wonky here but I could see some mixing on the CT coast. 

Agreed...def still thinking the coast is going to have at least some mixing issues with this. 

What I liked on the Euro was the evolution of the storm and where it starts to strengthen and how it strengthens as it passes south of Long Island. Putting away track and how many mb deep it is, I love to see the strengthening occur like that because we're far from occlusion and going to maximize the dynamics and amount of moisture being thrown into the CCB.

[George001]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Seriously?

Yeah that’s way north

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Track wasn’t too dissimilar (maybe a hair S) but it was not a dynamic as the Ukie solution. Still a solid storm but a Euro type solution is more of like a 5-10” storm for SNE (maybe a higher lolli) rather than 8-12/10-15 or something like that which some of the other guidance has. 

Euro looks like it wound up a hair too late with mid levels

 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah that’s way north

Not sure what he was looking at, Not that it matters right now, But still, Its north of 0z, Its warmer in NJ.

[78Blizzard]

The Cape is the winner in that run despite the taint.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed...def still thinking the coast is going to have at least some mixing issues with this. 

What I liked on the Euro was the evolution of the storm and where it starts to strengthen and how it strengthens as it passes south of Long Island. Putting away track and how many mb deep it is, I love to see the strengthening occur like that because we're far from occlusion and going to maximize the dynamics and amount of moisture being thrown into the CCB.

7H didn’t really close till it was past Long Island and Waited to really deepen  E of ACK . Let speed that up at least a bit 

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Go to pivotal but you need to subscribe.

 

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish I could see euro soundings. Looks like it may have a funky warm layer in there

I think they have some select locations available for free from the EC site. May be garbage graphics though.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t love the sheared out weak look on the euro. That would cap this to a moderate event 

[ROOSTA]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish I could see euro soundings. Looks like it may have a funky warm layer in there

I think they now have soundings on the ECMWF homepage.

  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

7H didn’t really close till it was past Long Island and Waited to really deepen  E of ACK 

yeah...I was more just looking at it from an overall perspective and eliminating the fine details. 

Maybe just a coping mechanism  

[dryslot]

Any snow at this point is a good start.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Shortwave doesn’t really have much integrity to it like other guidance which I why the whole thing is weaker than other guidance. 

I'm noticing that follow-up useless S/W in the TV region is bullying in faster than the other guidance. It appears there's some sensitivity wrt that feature - the models that have a bigger gap between it and the lead Jan 7 S/W, have more intensity with the our storm.   

Short version, the Euro has more neg wave interference there from the looks of it.

[kazimirkai]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Seriously?

Ig I was looking at hour 114 on the 12z and comparing. At that point (just off the coast) the storm is at virtually the same latitude but as it moves east it goes farther north on the 12z. The north trend much more evident looking at the snowfall distribution

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Ig I was looking at hour 114 on the 12z and comparing. At that point (just off the coast) the storm is at virtually the same latitude but as it moves east it goes farther north on the 12z

The 0z run up here was 0" qpf and 12z is .25", Outer fringes and realistically it sill  may not be anything here.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t love the sheared out weak look on the euro. That would cap this to a moderate event 

I think this is an example where rates and temps at or just above freezing would be pretty mundane for you and I. It does drop at the end, but most of the precip is done. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

38 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@Damage In Tolland is a child in a man's body. 

@40/70 Benchmark spends months analyzing in agonizing detail, but is outperformed by a 3 min read of the outside world.

@ORH_wxmanWill show excitement on every storm, regardless the potential. The biggest green tag weenie, that rope-a-dopes the cohort of idiots and enables the weenie cliff-dive. A true depression driver. 

@WinterWolf Eats squirrels and is proud of it.

 

Circus of rejects.

 

 

What are your thoughts on this threat? 

[kazimirkai]

Interesting how the 12z euro has the same lingering snowfall across SNE after the storm moves through as the 6z gfs. I wonder what will become of that feature

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Interesting how the 12z euro has the same lingering snowfall across SNE after the storm moves through as the 6z gfs. I wonder what will become of that feature

Good chance for lingering light snow since the shortwave is stretched/sheared out at the end…sort of forces an IVT to hang back and keep light snow falling. Don’t think additional accums would be big but like an inch or two from late afternoon through evening wouldn’t be surprising in that type of setup. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t love the sheared out weak look on the euro. That would cap this to a moderate event 

Euro is a JAM so we’ll see how everything else looks next 2 days. This was never expected to be more than a good plowable event anyway so anything from 4-12” is still on the table.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Shortwave doesn’t really have much integrity to it like other guidance which I why the whole thing is weaker than other guidance. 

Ha...I was waiting for this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@Damage In Tolland is a child in a man's body. 

@40/70 Benchmark spends months analyzing in agonizing detail, but is outperformed by a 3 min read of the outside world.

@ORH_wxmanWill show excitement on every storm, regardless the potential. The biggest green tag weenie, that rope-a-dopes the cohort of idiots and enables the weenie cliff-dive. A true depression driver. 

@WinterWolf Eats squirrels and is proud of it.

 

Circus of rejects.

 

 

What is 3 feet and a few geese between friends?

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro is a JAM so we’ll see how everything else looks next 2 days. This was never expected to be more than a good plowable event anyway so anything from 4-12” is still on the table.

This. Moderate and hopefully long duration get off the mat event. If we do better great, if the low tracks over Hartford we crawl to the next threat. 

[weatherwiz]

The EPS train has arrived at the station, all aboard. Next stop, wintry New England. 

[CoastalWx]

Maybe a hair south of 6z but looks pretty close just eye balling.