Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Greg]

[RDRY]

Pixie dust for first 3 hours in Lenox. Dry air FTW.

[CT Rain]

Some 9"/10" reports in NW NJ. That band put down a ton of dendrites from NW NJ into SE NY (and probably NW CT too). 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It def can score some coups. It’s why we follow it more than a model like the ICON or some other bizarre high short term resolution model.
 

It’s just hard to tell when it’s right beforehand. 

Meteorologically, I would think the best QPF would be closer to the best forcing to the N/NW of the SFC low.  Not the far ULL stuff into NW NE.  Mid-level goodies probably hit CNE somewhere.

The HRRR QPF makes sense.  The rest is just ratios and snow growth as you go north and west.  Maybe 0.40” QPF is 4”, maybe it’s 7”.  While maybe some spot way down south sees 0.90” QPF as 7” of paste with some marginal white rain in between.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Some 9"/10" reports in NW NJ. That band put down a ton of dendrites from NW NJ into SE NY (and probably NW CT too). 

Combine good snow growth with sticky surface temperatures near 30-32F, those flakes link up and become potato chips, trapping air and accumulating rapidly.

[wxsniss]

Sorry if posted earlier... add to the meso side

HREF continues bullish

0z-12z Sun:

12z Sun - 0z Mon:

[weatherwiz]

I am super curious to see how tomorrow morning plays out and whether the CCB gets a second wind. HRRR is really hitting that.

[MuddyWx]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Sorry if posted earlier... add to the meso side, HREF continues bullish, this is only until 12z Sun... estimating from hourly snow this is ~doubled by 0z Mon:

Blue 4-6, Green 6-8

Yea hasn't backed down.. cards are about to show soon though

[bwt3650]

Combine good snow growth with sticky surface temperatures near 30-32F, those flakes link up and become potato chips, trapping air and accumulating rapidly.

A poster in the NYC forum has pictures showing about 6” in just over 90 minutes near Poughkeepsie..it’s been dumping here in nj, but the ratios are just so poor. 32 and heavy snow under one of those bands. Would be great base building stuff up north.


.

[ORH_wxman]

00z guidance so far tonight is going pretty bullish on the CCB tomorrow. I think that may be a factor with crashing temps too in the afternoon. Still some disagreement on temp crashing. Some models really delay it until it’s almost over but others are crashing it in the middle of the CCB which would be a bigger deal. 

[George001]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z guidance so far tonight is going pretty bullish on the CCB tomorrow. I think that may be a factor with crashing temps too in the afternoon. Still some disagreement on temp crashing. Some models really delay it until it’s almost over but others are crashing it in the middle of the CCB which would be a bigger deal. 

I have no idea what to expect…. What would you say a realistic range for my area is based on obs and the latest guidance? I was thinking around 6-7 inches this morning due to the north trend, now not sure.

[Sn0waddict]

57 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Pixie dust for first 3 hours in Lenox. Dry air FTW.

Yep currently only 20 mins away from Lenox and it’s just hours of pixie dust.

[weatherwiz]

Steeper lapse rates advecting in with strengthening frontogenesis. Definitely need to watch out for some thunder snow in the next few hours.

[Torch Tiger]

i love messing with these.  let's gooo 1.3" 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

I have no idea what to expect…. What would you say a realistic range for my area is based on obs and the latest guidance? I was thinking around 6-7 inches this morning due to the north trend, now not sure.

I think you’re prob gonna do several inches tomorrow afternoon so it really depends on what happens later tonight with the thump. You’re far enough inland that I think you’ll prob get 5-6 from the thump. 

[weathafella]

Rainy night right now and it appears to be raining in many areas not that close the the ocean.  Hopefully heavier echoes bring colder air from not too far off the deck.  I think we have a pretty good chance tomorrow mid day for some catchup.

[MJO812]

Is this storm a bust up there ?

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Is this storm a bust up there ?

Not here…still snowing good and 4”+ on the ground.  Can’t complain at all. 

[ice1972]

Wait dry slut?

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I am super curious to see how tomorrow morning plays out and whether the CCB gets a second wind. HRRR is really hitting that.

No, it's one of the phantom five. Wraparound, NORLUN, TORs, not sure what the other two are I'm rusty lol

[ice1972]

20 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

No, it's one of the phantom five. Wraparound, NORLUN, TORs, not sure what the other two are I'm rusty lol

Sting jet

[BombsAway1288]

27 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

No, it's one of the phantom five. Wraparound, NORLUN, TORs, not sure what the other two are I'm rusty lol

Eh, not really. You’re probably thinking about backlash snows from an occluding storm that show up on the models hundreds of miles south and west of a departing system. This CCB would be different coming from a maturing/strengthening storm. There’s a difference 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, MuddyWx said:

Yea hasn't backed down.. cards are about to show soon though

Its right.

[SouthCoastMA]

6z Euro focusing on SECT/SRI and the Islands this evening? Seems like that was a trend on 0z that continues on this run 

[moneypitmike]

Yet to go from the HRRR

[moneypitmike]

Wagons north on the RAP.  Meh for SNE.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yet to go from the HRRR

I’d take another 3.5” and be stoked. 

[Layman]

[dendrite]

I stole your snow.

But honestly that forecast wasn’t too bad. If you looked at the point forecasts that 12-18” was more like 13”. And your depth of 9” is probably more like 10-11” if you cleared every 6hrs. But there were many locations up here and in S NH over a foot.

[512high]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I stole your snow.

But honestly that forecast wasn’t too bad. If you looked at the point forecasts that 12-18” was more like 13”. And your depth of 9” is probably more like 10-11” if you cleared every 6hrs. But there were many locations up here and in S NH over a foot.

Agreed. I think NWS was a good call, good event