Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Wilmington is not where I’m taking about. I guess I should say immediate coast. I’m 200 yards from water. 

It's going to depend on a lot of variables for you particularly. Get into heavier omega and you stave off the mix. Precip lets up and sleet or rain or both can mix in. Very tough call because of the colder temps "Off the Deck" sort of speak.

[Bryan63]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

HRRR is not like the Euro

Seems to be really hammering the 2nd part tomorrow in EMA.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is in deep doo 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

HRRR is not like the Euro

Model war continues. 
 

RAP too is somewhat south but not as much as HRRR 

[Greg]

Te Euro has been known to be amped but only slightly so. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

HRRR is not like the Euro

We pray

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Model war continues. 
 

RAP too is somewhat south but not as much as HRRR 

NAM chasing convection again

[weatherwiz]

MCD Time!

Mesoscale Discussion 0009
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern New England

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 070135Z - 070730Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will slowly increase in coverage
   across portions of southern New England this evening. Snowfall rates
   of 1-2 in/hr are possible within the heaviest band late this evening
   into the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
   showed a broad area of stratiform precipitation ongoing across parts
   of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Associated with an
   approaching coastal low, periodic moderate to heavy snow/rain has
   been observed within this precipitation over the last several hours.
   Slow northeastward progression of the heaviest precip has been noted
   with the primary east-west oriented band stretching from
   east-central PA to Long Island Sound. Driven by strong low-level
   warm advection ahead of the deepening coastal low, moderate to heavy
   snow should slowly increase in coverage over portions of southern
   New England late this evening and into the overnight hours. Rates
   between 1 to 2 in/hour are possible within the primary band, though
   there remains some uncertainty on how quickly the heaviest snow will
   lift northward. Light snow has already been reported across parts of
   RI, MA and CT but, regional model soundings and observed ceilings
   above 4k feet suggest some low-level dry air remains in place.
   Inland moisture advection and the approach of the surface low should
   slowly cool and moisten the low-level thermodynamic profile
   sufficiently for higher snow rates after 03z. Periods of moderate to
   heavy snow will likely continue into the overnight hours.

   ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024

[Bryan63]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We pray

I know in my gut that this isn't going to pan out for us, but almost feels worse when you have some models selling hope.

It's the hope that kill you.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM chasing convection again

Maybe or was the 18Z off models usually a bit too amped?

[ineedsnow]

[SouthCoastMA]

Hope NAM is right for comedic purposes

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

wtf lol

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

I know in my gut that this isn't going to pan out for us, but almost feels worse when you have some models selling hope.

It's the hope that kill you.

Low levels were always mild. You really need to pound to get accumulations. 

[Bryan63]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Low levels were always mild. You really need to pound to get accumulations. 

So you're telling me there's a chance 

[NorEastermass128]

[weatherwiz]

Watch the chasing convection verify. We laugh every time we see that pop up but it seems to have screwed us on several occasions 

[weatherwiz]

I'm sure we'll see things ramp up in the next few hours. We should get 850 going and you can see nice jet materializing 

Like seeing 700-500 fronto setting up

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’m not selling euro on 3 straight runs inside 24 hours . I’ll die peacefully on that sword every time . 
 

even if it doesn’t show what I want 

[Thunderblizzard]

Both NAMs seem a bit better with tomorrow's stuff down here despite the cutback for tonight.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m not selling euro on 3 straight runs inside 24 hours . I’ll die peacefully on that sword every time . 

It’s already wrong in CT

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s already wrong in CT

It may be wrong later

WPC not buying it

[HoarfrostHubb]

Mood flakes here.  First snow IMBY since Novie. 

[FlashFreeze]

28° and light wind driven snow, ground is covered appears to be about 0.5” difficult to tell as wind has really increased in the last hour ENE 28mph, Higher gusts

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Mood flakes here.  First snow IMBY since Novie. 

check out the 1z HRRR 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

check out the 1z HRRR 

What's it show?

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Model war continues. 
 

RAP too is somewhat south but not as much as HRRR 

I’m not gonna lie, people shit on the HRRR all the time but it can be pretty good.  It nailed several events for us up here back in Novie and early Dec.

If it doesn’t show what we want, it’s a running joke to dismiss it. But it has its moments when consistent.

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

Snow has started in earnest in North Central VT.  Nice diamond crystal pattern on the ground in my headlamp. Hoping we all get a nice outcome when all is said and done. 

[Briz600]

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What's it show?

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m not gonna lie, people shit on the HRRR all the time but it can be pretty good.  It nailed several events for us up here back in Novie and early Dec.

If it doesn’t show what we want, it’s a running joke to dismiss it. But it has its moments when consistent.

It def can score some coups. It’s why we follow it more than a model like the ICON or some other bizarre high short term resolution model.
 

It’s just hard to tell when it’s right beforehand.