Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Modfan2]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

3K looked more tame, but warmer pike south. 

Shocker, guess 3-5” for me sounds good

[40/70 Benchmark]

Got some CJ here haha Coating

32.4/30

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wagons north

You get like 10” on the NAM lol

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You get like 10” on the NAM lol

That’s not happening 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Literally a model for everyone out there lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Add in the usual Messenger shuffle east and the CCB gets the entire SNE/ CNE region 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That’s not happening 

Probably not, but certainly not impossible. You and Hubb are 1 and 1A in “surprised” “didn’t expect that” category 

[bristolri_wx]

8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

congrats to the pope on that jackpot

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Add in the usual Messenger shuffle east and the CCB gets the entire SNE/ CNE region 

Messenger shuffling backwards 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Messenger shuffling backwards 

HRRR

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1743726902630650074?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Probably not, but certainly not impossible. You and Hubb are 1 and 1A in “surprised” “didn’t expect that” category 

It’s not happening. Trust me.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Got some CJ here haha Coating

32.4/30

https://x.com/ray9590/status/1743728351565447646?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dan11295]

Have to be very vary of poor ratios, etc. on the thump esp in ESNE.

[wxsniss]

Great runs for southern VT / MA/NH border / southeast ME...

For SNE, snow maps may look decent but point of capture of surface low keeps ticking north, warmer at surface and 925s, and closer dryslot in morning... both NAM/GFS warmer compared to 0z last night, not good for the higher totals in SNE... I'm hoping these trends reverse a little

[NeonPeon]

Quote

...a model for everyone out there.

I can't find anything that would scratch my itch.

Will I get no accumulating snow, or 2 inches of slush, good lord the options are dizzying.

I'm expecting a bit of slush on the hedge, rain and white rain.

[WxWatcher007]

My original bar was 4”. Now it’s at 6”. I’ll enjoy whatever but hope to verify my first warning in a while. 

[Damage In Tolland]

HRRR vs Nam .. we’ll see how it plays out 

[moneypitmike]

This system is all about the Jeff's Jumps, not the messenger shuffle.

Congrats Dendrite and folks north.  Should have headed to Pit2.  I think that snowblower works, too.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR vs Nam .. we’ll see how it plays out 

What’s the NAM show?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

What’s the NAM show?

The CCB over you 

[TheSnowman]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just take an accordion and smash it against the wall !!

You guys DO realize, even with the plethora of Accordions I have, if I listened to 1/10th of the times you guys say that, I’d have None left.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/ray9590/status/1743728351565447646?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Guilty.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The CCB over you 

I really don’t see much difference between 19z HRRR you posted and the NAM.

Same general areas…

HRRR

NAM…

[moneypitmike]

3k:

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I really don’t see much difference between 19z HRRR you posted and the NAM.

Same general areas…

HRRR

NAM…

The difference is round 2

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I really don’t see much difference between 19z HRRR you posted and the NAM.

Same general areas…

HRRR

NAM…

Is that .8" of qpf in 6 hours?  righteous.

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This system is all about the Jeff's Jumps, not the messenger shuffle.

Congrats Dendrite and folks north.  Should have headed to Pit2.  I think that snowblower works, too.

Screw CJ, I’ll take JJ

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The difference is round 2

Ahh I thought that was round 2… that’s the easterly flow after the overrunning thump.

But I see what you are talking about… that weird little QPF streak that looks dubious?  I don’t think that QPF in CT is the CCB… just looks odd when looped….  Almost convective.  But who knows.

[Greg]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wagons north

Not quite yet.

[Spaizzo]

I'm hoping we can get this organize faster than currently expected. Keep that dry slot away. 

I was just going to ask if we are already dry slotting based off the radar movement


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