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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


Typhoon Tip
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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice runs overall overnight. 3k NAM went wild for eastern areas too. 
 

Seems like the onset has slowed down a bit since yesterday. Much if CT waits until late evening (maybe closer to mid-evening in far sw zones)…except still gotta watch that weird OES type look for northeast MA/SE NH a bit earlier. 

Noticed this too .. .the slowing. 

That, and some of these shorter term meso runs hammering the CCB ... these come off as having 2nd S/W taking back control -again- after the 24 hour hiatus.  I thought maybe while it was relaying through that narrow ridge spine aligned along the WC ...might have been causing some issues with the runs - speculation - sort of losing it for awhile.   It seems something's giving back to that - it may still be less than that eye-popper solutions 2 days ago, but partially back.  

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know some subtle changes but seems like noise. These euro runs sometimes shit themselves this close in. We’ll see. 

I’ve found it’s qpf distribution to be subpar and especially close in, over the years for us WOR. It’s my weenie experience but it just seems like it has a dry surface bias if it is not wrapping around the mid levels…if that even is a thing.  

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