Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[WxWatcher007]

Colder for the CT coast. Good to see.

[wxsniss]

Thru 42h continues a tic southeast of 12z run, thermals colder everywhere, otherwise very similar

[weathafella]

Euro seems much more coherent with the handoff from WAA to CCB and therefore keeps it colder and wetter.

[weathafella]

[wxsniss]

No drastic changes... a more southeast track and colder thermals throughout, giving a better run for ESNE/coastal CT / RI... colder and wetter

10:1, 12z left, 0z right:

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro seems much more coherent with the handoff from WAA to CCB and therefore keeps it colder and wetter.

It’s an excellent run. Much colder and more coherent as you said. 925s don’t rise above -1C even at Groton (for the CT folks). It’s a nice look for eastern Mass. 

Wonder if we can keep the trend going through game time.

[kazimirkai]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Youch not liking this run. Hopefully the short ranges have a better idea

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Youch not liking this run. Hopefully the short ranges have a better idea

I thought the "wheelhouse" of HRR/RAP is inside of 12 hours.  So late tomorrow/tomorrow evening they should be more valuable.  NAM is probably reasonably useful starting at the 12Z run tomorrow imho.

[Ginx snewx]

10 inches of snow followed by 3.5 inches of rain with 40 knot winds on the Euro good times

[nutmegfriar]

Start lining your dogs up in pairs for the trip to the arc.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-moderate-to-high-impact.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

That 5-10" range was a last second edit after the 00z EURO...I had that part of the 4-8" area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will be so pissed if this shifts warm again this PM.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That 5-10" range was a last second edit after the 00z EURO...I had that part of the 4-8" area.

One of those power outage arrows is pointing to my house.  Hopefully that DOESN'T happen!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

One of those power outage arrows is pointing to my house.  Hopefully that DOESN'T happen!

I thought about that  I think you are in that zone that will get significant snow on the marine side of the front....until it crashes and it freezes.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought about that  I think you are in that zone that will get significant snow on the marine side of the front....until it crashes and it freezes.

Yeah the snow will probably come but the discomfort may follow....hoping for a quick transition to a more powdery snow.  Retention (which I could care less about) in either case isn't happening anywhere for most of us given. the warm wet event coming 2-3 days later.

[wxsniss]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-moderate-to-high-impact.html

Excellent writeup and forecast.

Agree with your bumping up Boston metro from 4-8 to 5-10 given almost all guidance (CMC is outlier).

I won't be shocked to see 12-14 spots in eastern face of Worcester hills to 495 to NE Mass.

Let's hope there won't be too much if any melting lull between overnight WAA and late morning-afternoon CCB.

And no complaints if HREF scores a coup.

[ineedsnow]

6z HRRR 

[ineedsnow]

6z  3k and 12k chasing convection again

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z HRRR 

That run blows

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That run blows

Looks like crap for the coast 

[wxsniss]

Our discussions here tonight identifying colder trends particularly for east SNE are mirroring NWS latest thoughts:

[ORH_wxman]

Nice runs overall overnight. 3k NAM went wild for eastern areas too. 
 

Seems like the onset has slowed down a bit since yesterday. Much if CT waits until late evening (maybe closer to mid-evening in far sw zones)…except still gotta watch that weird OES type look for northeast MA/SE NH a bit earlier. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice runs overall overnight. 3k NAM went wild for eastern areas too. 
 

Seems like the onset has slowed down a bit since yesterday. Much if CT waits until late evening (maybe closer to mid-evening in far sw zones)…except still gotta watch that weird OES type look for northeast MA/SE NH a bit earlier. 

BOX has all of CT snowing 4-7 PM

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Our discussions here tonight identifying colder trends particularly for east SNE are mirroring NWS latest thoughts:

8-12" Simsbury is a good call at this juncture. I lean much closer to the 8" mark. 

[TalcottWx]

For Connecticut, we're watching a lack of organized banding after the WAA snows, which also means a dry slot approaches from Long Island. 

Right now it's 4-8" where it dry slots, imo. Id go 5-10" for most where we have best snows, up in Litchfield, Hartford counties North and West. 

It definitely involves Tolland. Northern portions of that county are likely to do well, including Kevin. 

Dry slot can also mean snow growth issues. Something to keep in mind. 

I'm intrigued by mesos, now casting as this event begins, there's a lot remaining to be figured out. 

 

[Johnno]

19 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

For Connecticut, we're watching a lack of organized banding after the WAA snows, which also means a dry slot approaches from Long Island. 

Right now it's 4-8" where it dry slots, imo. Id go 5-10" for most where we have best snows, up in Litchfield, Hartford counties North and West. 

It definitely involves Tolland. Northern portions of that county are likely to do well, including Kevin. 

Dry slot can also mean snow growth issues. Something to keep in mind. 

I'm intrigued by mesos, now casting as this event begins, there's a lot remaining to be figured out. 

 

Yea thinking 7 or 8” with the thump here tonight and then maybe 1” Sunday with the Currier and Ives while emass gets it 

[moneypitmike]

GFS is relatively tame for much of MA outside of SE/Cape.  Congrats Darien and Westport, CT

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

GFS is relatively tame for much of MA outside of SE/Cape.  Congrats Darien and Westport, CT

Scooter for the win.

[Damage In Tolland]

53 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

For Connecticut, we're watching a lack of organized banding after the WAA snows, which also means a dry slot approaches from Long Island. 

Right now it's 4-8" where it dry slots, imo. Id go 5-10" for most where we have best snows, up in Litchfield, Hartford counties North and West. 

It definitely involves Tolland. Northern portions of that county are likely to do well, including Kevin. 

Dry slot can also mean snow growth issues. Something to keep in mind. 

I'm intrigued by mesos, now casting as this event begins, there's a lot remaining to be figured out. 

 

I have 8-12” NE Hills