Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

0z HREF now goes out to 0z Monday and the mean is more jacked than any other model (not surprising given what 12z showed )

and the max is kinda funny 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=neI’m 

just click the top right to get to 0z Monday (on the silver  horizontal time bar)

It’s gone wild for sure

[WeatherX]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I fully approve, and call it a night:

Don't you worry child

 

 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

I thought you guys were talking about Ryan Hanrahan....

We were…and you’re correct. He’s cocked. Lol. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie is still the most progressive and pedestrian of all the models with this 

I want to kick something every time it comes out 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Never heard of him. I operate outside of the outside

Bro, you’re bombed. Go get some rest. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie is still the most progressive and pedestrian of all the models with this 

Ukie sucks period. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ukie sucks period. 

Ya , I know but sometimes when the Ukie moves (it didn’t move it just still sucks ) they think the euro then follows it 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

0z HREF now goes out to 0z Monday and the mean is more jacked than any other model (not surprising given what 12z showed )

and the max is kinda funny 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=neI’m 

just click the top right to get to 0z Monday (on the silver  horizontal time bar)

Congrats scooter 

[WxWatcher007]

Would like to see the Euro endorse violence tonight but we’re basically at chips fall mode. Let’s get it on. 

[WeatherX]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Bro, you’re bombed. Go get some rest. 

Ha, this fucking guy

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Congrats scooter 

Ya has a 24-27” spot . Pretty hilarious right 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya , I know but sometimes when the Ukie moves (it didn’t move it just still sucks ) they think the euro then follows it 

No I hear ya. Obviously I loved the 0z GFS …now that was a great hit here.  Would love to see the Euro follow suit. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Isn’t there a German or French model , anything between now and Euro

[WeatherX]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Isn’t there a German or French model , anything between now and Euro

Korean and Austrailiano 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Don't you worry child

 

 

Shoveling CMC snow is one of @powderfreak’s favorite hobbies. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, The Graupler said:

Dude calm down with that 

Oh I’m keeping calm and carrying on!

[78Blizzard]

28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

0z HREF now goes out to 0z Monday and the mean is more jacked than any other model (not surprising given what 12z showed )

and the max is kinda funny 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=neI’m 

just click the top right to get to 0z Monday (on the silver  horizontal time bar)

Even the mean is nothing to sneeze at:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

[weathafella]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It doesn't JP scooter....that is using 10:1. Kuchera has it near my area...at. least relative to eastern MA.

lol……our neuroses poppin’, Steve keeping smilin’

[MuddyWx]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Even the mean is nothing to sneeze at:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

CCBeast

[wxsniss]

Just tuning back... everyone in bed, back to storm!

HREF really impressive, even mean snowfall. Anyone know if HREF thermals and/or snow algorithms are less reliable? I ask because mean QPF is very close to NAM, yet HREF has most of ESNE 12-18 mean snowfall.

I do remember clinging to HREF snowfalls that never materialized in past storms, other storms it was pretty accurate.

Warmest mean 2m Temps at 9z Sun:

Snow and QPF are not strictly 10:1 so their algorithm / thermals must be more generous than NAM:

Left: Snowfall, yellow = 12-15, orange 15-18

Right: QPF, light blue 1.2-1.5, purple 1.5-1.75

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Isn’t there a German or French model , anything between now and Euro

Frenchy

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Frenchy

Korea

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Korea

That looks realistic.

 

liking the trend minus one or two models to pin the marine taint right to the shore. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, I am nervous about busting low....but my map is done. I am just too leery of totally biting off on this damn last minute capture.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I am nervous about busting low....but my map is done. I am just to leery of totally biting off on this damn last minute capture.

Fun time . Figure with that 50 knot 850 inflow many interior hills gets smoked 

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I am nervous about busting low....but my map is done. I am just to leery of totally biting off on this damn last minute capture.

I posted this last night, sticking with it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

May as well wait on the EURO to fire away at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looking at some of the soundings, and it's really not that impressive....NAM has most of the OMEGA above the SGZ @KLWM.

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I am nervous about busting low....but my map is done. I am just to leery of totally biting off on this damn last minute capture.

Really tough forecast for SNE inside 495 and southeast... not just the capture but the thermals early on... 0z NAM was very cold once things wetbulb, and I think that's notable for a model that tends to be aggressive with warm intrusion.

Hard not to forecast potential for double digits somewhere, most likely Worcester Hills to 495 / northeast MA.

For MBY Boston suburbs... debating 4-8 vs. 6-10, pending trends overnight. I could see a tight gradient where downtown is like 5" whereas Jerry in Chestnut Hill closer to 8-10". And even then there is potential upside to those numbers if overnight is colder and CCB develops faster.

Agree with Pickles I could see a lull Sunday morning ~7am-9am when it's fizzling (even drizzling) between WAA and CCB, before we crank again into afternoon.

[wxsniss]

Looks a hair south and east at 30h with colder 925s everywhere