Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This model watching is better than the dang storm with models running every 15 mins lol

Yea, usually tracking the storm produces more euphoria then the actual storm itself. 

[tavwtby]

H7 fronto 0z yesterday vs 0z today...

[WeatherX]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

They both do .. snows most of the daylight hours Sunday 

Looks like the break point for mixing south of the Merritt is around midnight Sunday. NAM sorted caved to the GFS thermal profile which has been colder and steadfast on that. If GFS holds I'd go 3-6" CT 95 up to GON and then nowcast the rest

[Go Kart Mozart]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam was nice. 

Was that a Messenger tick?

[weathafella]

6-10 is my final call for mby.

[RDRY]

3K mucho juicy. NAM is always fun in this range for locked-in coastals.

[WeatherWilly]

Slight improvement, need the mix line to drop a bit further south

[dryslot]

The Mesos models are lit. 

[tunafish]

22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Boing!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 Now batting …

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Was that a Messenger tick?

Compared to 12z yes.

[Henry's Weather]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, usually tracking the storm produces more euphoria then the actual storm itself. 

See that’s what I try to avoid right there

[Typhoon Tip]

Fantastic crunchy ground temp crash in Boston Sunday afternoon 

[tomcatct]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel safer when Long Island gets some. 

Yes...I'm in Trumbull so we're both living on the edge

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Reggie , nam and euro are all about same spot (give or take 25 miles ) at 18z Sunday ..just south of MVY

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Isn’t that temperature not p-type?

Poor choice of colors though around that temperature.

Oof…not sure why I missed that. I just assumed it was a r/s line. 

[WeatherX]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fantastic crunchy ground temp crash in Boston Sunday afternoon 

Unassuming coed steps out and discovers the crunch for the first time?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Reggie warmer than nam esp for S coast SE mass 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oof…not sure why I missed that. I just assumed it was a r/s line. 

The color scheme is confusing....it does look like rain vs snow, as it's near the freezing line.

[WeatherX]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reggie warmer than nam esp for S coast SE mass 

Slams NE though nicely. Biggie up there and I like that

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reggie warmer than nam esp for S coast SE mass 

Big fronto band up by CON

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, usually tracking the storm produces more euphoria then the actual storm itself. 

It’s addicting. Because you envision what could happen so viscerally. Sometimes the actual event is disappointing, but it’s really rooted in expectations.

For anyone who hasn’t seen actual snowfall so far this season, getting even 6” of legit (dense), synoptic snow will feel like a blizzard.

Even from afar, it’ll be fun to watch unfold.  This forum comes into its own when a “nor’easter” moves through.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reggie warmer than nam esp for S coast SE mass 

That’s a nice stinger for E MA on Sunday afternoon. Seems like all the models are showing that at 00z so far. Could be brief blizzard conditions with a flash freeze temp crash. There aren’t a ton of situations that ever happens…the ones I can think of are 12/9/05, 3/8/05 and maybe 2/2/15 near BOS for places that were east of the CF…then it crashed to like 12F with blizzard conditions that afternoon/evening,lol. 
 

I don’t think this one will be as bad as those examples but it’s something to watch. Can’t rule out a really nasty 3-4 hour period. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a nice thump for CT

Haven't found a way to throw it away yet on that model? 

[WeatherX]

Is the accepted time to run and accept the HRDPS output like 8 or 12 hours before go time?

[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, usually tracking the storm produces more euphoria then the actual storm itself. 

Not in this house. A good run is euphoric, but there’s nothing like a few hours in the snow of other elements if it’s not winter—don’t care what the tracking entailed. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Haven't found a way to throw it away yet on that model? 

Still not the useful range.

[TalcottWx]

41 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’ve basically stopped doing anything not mandatory and just plopped myself in front of a screen to watch models for 3 days , is that healthy 

Don't forget to sports bet. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

Don't forget to sports bet. 

I haven’t done basketball props in a while 

beginning of the year there are better plays . I had Scott Barnes for about 15 out of 20 overs on Pts, reb, assist totals and often on some higher alternate lines 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not in this house. A good run is euphoric, but there’s nothing like a few hours in the snow of other elements if it’s not winter—don’t care what the tracking entailed. 

What do you do in the snow that is euphoric… , sled , walk , streak ?