Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With the western trough weaker it seems to me this is may want move a bit flatter so you want that confluence out of the way , so it can gain latitude and slide E/ENE

people mentioned a trailing SW also helping, how is that 

I'm not sure if it helped much, I was just curious about that and what it might do.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just depends on air temp. 33-34 and you'll get a few inches of slop.

What happened to the nice high funneling in cold air?

[SouthCoastMA]

Looking like an inch then rain here. yay. and the 10th is already locked in for the coast as rain. Maybe CAD will help the interior, i dunno

[UnitedWx]

She's a beaut Clark... hoping I can use the I told you so on Monday Curious to see how the 10th trends, I can't see that far yet

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What happened to the nice high funneling in cold air?

For the cold solution I think you wanted The stronger confluence and the deeper west trough combo. That way you’re closer to the cold source but the deeper trough in west helped the confluence from dominating and crushing this  ?. Sorta thread the needle for SE mass to crush . Still seems solid 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What happened to the nice high funneling in cold air?

Winds go more east. It's cold aloft, but even that track on the GFS is a little close. I think it's good for now, but that would be taint city if it budged more NW.

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Any weaker though and folks need to prepare for warmer solutions. 

Potentially, however, that high is fairly strong and in a good spot. But certainly could be a concern for warmer air along the coast.

[CoastalWx]

Anyways, that works better than 1SM at 33F. Get some meat in here.

[ineedsnow]

just hope if we deform I'm not sucking exhaust here.. BTW CMC is a beaut for the 10th here

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Winds go more east. It's cold aloft, but even that track on the GFS is a little close. I think it's good for now, but that would be taint city if it budged more NW.

Coast and SE areas don’t want that low gaining too much latitude before it slides ENE due to onshore flow. Gotta keep it a bit south. 
 

That’s actually true for everyone but interior has a lot more wiggle room for how close the sfc low gets. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

just hope if we deform I'm not sucking exhaust here.. BTW CMC is a beaut for the 10th here

That, unfortunately, is going to end up being a concern somewhere for someone. 

[CoastalWx]

GEFS mean coming north too.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS mean coming north too.

Question is whether some of those lows are over my head now lol

[radarman]

I like that at the surface we have almost a SWFE event like retreating HP situation that might provide some resistance, lest that jet ushers things away too fast.  All the same, I'm expecting a fairly quick hitter. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS mean coming north too.

looks like some of the members are going to be monster hits for the interior but yeah, an evident shift north of the GEFS.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Question is whether some of those lows are over my head now lol

Pretty tight cluster on northern edge but none of them get inland. EPS had a couple onshore in CT but most of them stayed S of LI and all of them do on the GEFS save maybe one right near it. There is a northern extent to this because of the trough out west and the confluence up north. 
 

Here 12z GEFS. 
 

 

[Spanks45]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

looks like some of the members are going to be monster hits for the interior but yeah, an evident shift north of the GEFS.

4-5 day range, goal posts are still fairly wide.....Hopefully this thing doesn't end up kissing the Hudson Valley.....keep it somehow south of LI

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the op on the nrn side of those members.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like Ukie is going to be a bit tamer than 00z but that isn’t a shock since 00z was super amped tainting most of SNE. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie won’t be coming in like last nite 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty tight cluster on northern edge but none of them get inland. EPS had a couple onshore in CT but most of them stayed S of LI and all of them do on the GEFS save maybe one right near it. There is a northern extent to this because of the trough out west and the confluence up north. 
 

Here 12z GEFS. 
 

 

Excellent. That’s still nice on the ensembles. Apologies to Groton weenies. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

SE of ACK/MVY on Ukie 

from hair east of ACY to 40 miles S of ACK track 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty tight cluster on northern edge but none of them get inland. EPS had a couple onshore in CT but most of them stayed S of LI and all of them do on the GEFS save maybe one right near it. There is a northern extent to this because of the trough out west and the confluence up north. 
 

Here 12z GEFS. 
 

 

Pretty interesting to see the major divergence between 114 and 120 there. Tells you where the spread begins to evolve with this system.

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

4-5 day range, goal posts are still fairly wide.....Hopefully this thing doesn't end up kissing the Hudson Valley.....keep it somehow south of LI

Yup goal posts are still pretty wide for sure...although still not wide enough for Chad Ryland 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

SE of ACK/MVY on Ukie 

Actually a really nice look for Boston on Ukie. Crush job over eastern areas. Most of SNE does well but nice enhancement east. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually a really nice look for Boston on Ukie. Crush job over eastern areas. Most of SNE does well but nice enhancement east. 

CF looks set up maybe just SE of Boston there 

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS mean coming north too.

No surprise, They seem to go in what direction the OP goes normally.

[MJO812]

Uggh enjoy

I thought this was going to be squashed even to my south

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Uggh enjoy

I thought this was going to be squashed even to my south

 

So did the Pope.  

[Shaun Curry]

1 hour ago, MuddyWx said:

The mark bellhorn of models

While taking every at-bat to a 3-2 count.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So did the Pope.  

Flock currently in rebellion.