Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[das]

Here comes the reinforcing cold for y’all, moving thru NW VT right now. 

 

 

[Spanks45]

21 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah BDR is just an especially bad snow pit lol 

Agreed about lower Fairfield County. 

Sorry about the imby question, but thoughts on start time tomorrow and is this thing coming in like a wall of snow?

Travel bball games tomorrow, game in Ridgfield from 3 to 415...just a bit worried about getting stuck in what I would assume will be a traffic disaster coming back to Southbury. Thanks!

[EastonSN+]

38 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet. 

Nice. Sooo close to the coast with the good stuff

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

I recall that one well

[Go Kart Mozart]

36 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Agreed. I’ll get like 2” and then drive 3 miles north and see 6” like you said. It’s how we roll down here!


.

Ya, I was thinking about October 2011.  I was driving home along 95, all rain.  Turned up the 8/25, snow began mixing in at Boston Ave.  Then a wall of snow at the Bridgeport-Trumbull line.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The initial CF isn’t that strong. But it becomes ridiculous by Sunday midday. Here’s 1pm on Sunday on 18z euro..:this is where the potential big bust could happen…you get 40-50 knots of inflow slamming into that CF and someone could pound like crazy for 2-4 hours  

 

That could be nuts up here where the angle of the coast gets sharper.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I recall that one well

Yeah it was the 15th

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

I remember that...I was at school. A few classmates commuted and took them like 5 hours to go home lol.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

Air mass was just way better and track came from further east up the coast....I am thinking SW CT and even maybe areas just N of NYC perform generally worse than most models here with this

[Patrick-02540]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

I remember that well.  A few dozen cars on Rt 6 in Woodbury that slid off the side of the road or couldn't make it up even the shallowest incline.  It was very bizarre.  A lot of people who know they can't handle snow don't drive.  And when they get caught off guard, they panic.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Air mass was just way better and track came from further east up the coast....I am thinking SW CT and even maybe areas just N of NYC perform generally worse than most models here with this

Its also two months later now in much better climo so competing factors. This airmass isn’t horrible. SSTs are about 5-10 degrees cooler than mid November. 

[WeatherX]

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

Nov 18 was so fun. It’s in my top 10 just based on surprise and impact


.

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Elevation might help a bit with ratios. So it will be close

Scooter better be ready for pictures of my front steps and dog

LFG

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Sorry about the imby question, but thoughts on start time tomorrow and is this thing coming in like a wall of snow?

Travel bball games tomorrow, game in Ridgfield from 3 to 415...just a bit worried about getting stuck in what I would assume will be a traffic disaster coming back to Southbury. Thanks!

Guidance really varies with start time.. I’d wait til after 00z .. hrrr coming in much slower with thump , euro is the slowest amongst guidance, also these come in earlier usually.. hrrr back a bit SE after being a NW outlier 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I recall the storm Nov 2018 very well . I was working an eve shift at a women’s personal training studio In Lexington mass . I was saying to this one class (“ugh i mine as well sleep here on the floor tonite , I don’t think I can make it home safely to Nashua ) , and I had to open the next morning (@545am) and this one lady said “ well I have a spare bedroom, If you don’t want to drive “ . I replied “thanks but that is completely inappropriate”  in a sarcastic way . Then I took her up on it and a month later we were dating . 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

0z HRRR rolling 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I recall the storm Nov 2018 very well . I was working an eve shift at a women’s personal training studio In Lexington mass . I was saying to this one class (“ugh i mine as well sleep here on the floor tonite , I don’t think I can make it home safely to Nashua ) , and I had to open the next morning (@545am) and this one lady said “ well I have a spare bedroom, If you don’t want to drive “ . I replied “thanks but that is completely inappropriate”  in a sarcastic way . Then I took her up on it and a month later we were dating . 

Nearly 6” in that. Absolutely did not expect that.

[WeatherX]

Air mass was just way better and track came from further east up the coast....I am thinking SW CT and even maybe areas just N of NYC perform generally worse than most models here with this

Totally disagree. It’s January and I can’t find a layer of warmth in any column down here until the thump has passed. After the thump I don’t give an eff what happens.


.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Sorry about the imby question, but thoughts on start time tomorrow and is this thing coming in like a wall of snow?

Travel bball games tomorrow, game in Ridgfield from 3 to 415...just a bit worried about getting stuck in what I would assume will be a traffic disaster coming back to Southbury. Thanks!

He only responds to Kevin. They have some man love going on.@Damage In Tollandcan you ask your boy this important question for Spanky. 

[Patrick-02540]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I recall the storm Nov 2018 very well . I was working an eve shift at a women’s personal training studio In Lexington mass . I was saying to this one class (“ugh i mine as well sleep here on the floor tonite , I don’t think I can make it home safely to Nashua ) , and I had to open the next morning (@545am) and this one lady said “ well I have a spare bedroom, If you don’t want to drive “ . I replied “thanks but that is completely inappropriate”  in a sarcastic way . Then I took her up on it and a month later we were dating . 

Is that studio open tomorrow night?  How far from western CT?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Giving myself in ice cream headache going over data....NAM looks like it gets the CF right to about MBY....has the 32 isotherm over me, but really holds it this far north. Odd that its gets so far inland further south into areas that normally have less marine influence than I do....like Westford and Shrewsbury.

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr is a nice thump for CT

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a nice thump for CT

HRRR is gloppy for immediate Bos burbs

has low over Long Island lol

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Totally disagree. It’s January and I can’t find a layer of warmth in any column down here until the thump has passed. After the thump I don’t give an eff what happens.


.

I hate the position of the high...more so for my area than Norwalk but even there I just think anything over 4 is a long shot here 

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a nice thump for CT

7" in 6 hours west of river, as far out as I can see.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a nice thump for CT

sure is. 

I'm hoping to see some lightning strikes tomorrow night. And by Lightning strikes I don't mean the Tampa Bay Lightning scoring, I mean negative charges in the clouds having a date with some positive charges on the ground. 

[tavwtby]

22 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

remember that one well, was coming back from Boxboro from a week long test, awful commute.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Rain to Cory at 10z in Cumberland RI

[ice1972]

Hi guys…..can’t wait to get back to tracking with ya……looking forward to tomorrow night…..

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You talking qpf?

Yeah