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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 2:52 AM, ORH_wxman said:

It def can score some coups. It’s why we follow it more than a model like the ICON or some other bizarre high short term resolution model.
 

It’s just hard to tell when it’s right beforehand. 

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Meteorologically, I would think the best QPF would be closer to the best forcing to the N/NW of the SFC low.  Not the far ULL stuff into NW NE.  Mid-level goodies probably hit CNE somewhere.

The HRRR QPF makes sense.  The rest is just ratios and snow growth as you go north and west.  Maybe 0.40” QPF is 4”, maybe it’s 7”.  While maybe some spot way down south sees 0.90” QPF as 7” of paste with some marginal white rain in between.

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bwt3650

bwt3650

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 3:11 AM, powderfreak said:
Combine good snow growth with sticky surface temperatures near 30-32F, those flakes link up and become potato chips, trapping air and accumulating rapidly.

A poster in the NYC forum has pictures showing about 6” in just over 90 minutes near Poughkeepsie..it’s been dumping here in nj, but the ratios are just so poor. 32 and heavy snow under one of those bands. Would be great base building stuff up north.


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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

00z guidance so far tonight is going pretty bullish on the CCB tomorrow. I think that may be a factor with crashing temps too in the afternoon. Still some disagreement on temp crashing. Some models really delay it until it’s almost over but others are crashing it in the middle of the CCB which would be a bigger deal. 

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 3:52 AM, ORH_wxman said:

00z guidance so far tonight is going pretty bullish on the CCB tomorrow. I think that may be a factor with crashing temps too in the afternoon. Still some disagreement on temp crashing. Some models really delay it until it’s almost over but others are crashing it in the middle of the CCB which would be a bigger deal. 

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I have no idea what to expect…. What would you say a realistic range for my area is based on obs and the latest guidance? I was thinking around 6-7 inches this morning due to the north trend, now not sure.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 3:54 AM, George001 said:

I have no idea what to expect…. What would you say a realistic range for my area is based on obs and the latest guidance? I was thinking around 6-7 inches this morning due to the north trend, now not sure.

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I think you’re prob gonna do several inches tomorrow afternoon so it really depends on what happens later tonight with the thump. You’re far enough inland that I think you’ll prob get 5-6 from the thump. 

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BombsAway1288

BombsAway1288

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 5:48 AM, H2Otown_WX said:

No, it's one of the phantom five. Wraparound, NORLUN, TORs, not sure what the other two are I'm rusty lol

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Eh, not really. You’re probably thinking about backlash snows from an occluding storm that show up on the models hundreds of miles south and west of a departing system. This CCB would be different coming from a maturing/strengthening storm. There’s a difference 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

I stole your snow.

But honestly that forecast wasn’t too bad. If you looked at the point forecasts that 12-18” was more like 13”. And your depth of 9” is probably more like 10-11” if you cleared every 6hrs. But there were many locations up here and in S NH over a foot.

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
  On 1/8/2024 at 1:48 PM, dendrite said:

I stole your snow.

But honestly that forecast wasn’t too bad. If you looked at the point forecasts that 12-18” was more like 13”. And your depth of 9” is probably more like 10-11” if you cleared every 6hrs. But there were many locations up here and in S NH over a foot.

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Agreed. I think NWS was a good call, good event

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